Monday, April 16, 2018

EARLY PULLBACK AND LATER FOLLOW-THROUGH

Friday saw the Dollar lows as expected and from there, a modest push higher in the Dollar. There’s a good chance that we’ll see a correction early in the Asian session but then should look more to the Dollar upside. As mentioned on Friday, I feel that GBPUSD has completed its pullback and should now run with the same outlook in EURUSD and USDCHF. 

If I have any problem, it’s in USDJPY. It actually saw the highs I expected but there’s no sign of a bearish divergence – in the hourly or 4-hour time frame. I’m therefore wary of there being a very, very shallow Wave (b)… This pair will need some care. However, within EURUSD and USDCHF, there’s very little wriggle room on the Dollar downside and more likely a direct rally. This could drag GBPUSD and possibly USDJPY also…

IF there are to be any problems, it does still stem from USDJPY. We saw the expected highs in EURJPY and therefore the outlook should be bearish in the cross. That will require EURUSD to be stronger (on the downside) compared to USDJPY.

Equally, in AUDUSD I noted a slight adjustment in the bearish structure. This triggered gains above 0.7799 but with the prior development, I had made an error in the early stages. This has now been corrected but will now suggest the losses I have been expecting. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey 






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