Friday, March 30, 2018

NOW THE FOLLOW-THROUGH

It was a strange old day yesterday. It started well but then, in some pairs, we had the pullback – more a sideways move although USDJPY decided to see a much deeper pullback. This was one of those deep Wave b/iii’s. Therefore, we still have some work to rally back to the targets I mentioned yesterday. The pullback in EURUSD was more of a sideways range – but which was basically the Wave -iii- followed by a correction in Wave -iv- and then Wave -v- to form the Wave [a] and a pullback in Wave [b] and lower. A similar development occurred in USDCHF while GBPUSD saw a staggered decline to a Wave a, pullback in Wave b to see losses now down to the Wave c/iii. The Aussie was pretty much following the European template.

Therefore, we’re due Dollar gains over today.

As for EURJPY, given the general balance between EURUSD and USDJPY, we should see EURUSD stronger than USDJPY and therefore the cross should also see a rather messy, swinging decline.

Have a great week
Ian Copsey  







PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NEXT REPORT WILL BE ON THE 9TH APRIL

Thursday, March 29, 2018

EARLY SWINGS AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

Yesterday was a day of Dollar gains, very much as expected. As a template for today, I suspect very much the same. I can see that we’re moving into a corrective development but, in general, the pullbacks don’t really suggest deep corrections. Therefore, Asia will likely handle the pullback while Europe and North America will provide the “oomph” for the Dollar rally.

In particular, USDJPY forced a much stronger follow-through than I had anticipated and rushed through the (second) first reversal target. We’ll have to take care in this pair because it should run into several barriers, pullbacks and higher barriers.

Both EURUSD and USDCHF still have Dollar gains to go but there will be some intermediate pullbacks on the way. At the same time, GBPUSD being its own master has a similar development to USDJPY. Initially, the Pound will likely see a pullback higher before any stronger follow-through to the downside. This suggests that the losses in EURUSD will outpace USDJPY and that should see EURJPY looking to the downside.

And down under, we should see the same type of bearish development – with swings – as it moves lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Wednesday, March 28, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



UPSIDE TARGET MET AT 131.81

DOWNSIDE TARGET MET AT 130.55




FURTHER FOLLOW-THROUGH

That was a better day. We’re back on the Dollar bullish track but very clearly in the early stages of building the basis for a stronger Dollar. This is still going to need some care, given the markets’ are still rather cautious having seen the deep pullback over last week. However, if we take GBPUSD as an example, the expanded flat it formed will clearly need losses back below 1.3711 and you can bet your bottom Dollar that it will break through that low by a margin.

While there can be a pullback in some of the pairs after yesterday’s Dollar strength, we shall need to take care and watch for the reversal. Having seen some pairs with a Wave (i) using retracement ratios are rather flaky so better use momentum. However, for example, we have EURUSD looking to break through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud while USDCHF is attempting to break clear of its own 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud – just as GBPUSD is doing the same. Indeed, USDJPY has managed to break above the 4-hour Cloud having following a retest of the Cloud high.  

AUDUSD should, theoretically, see a deep pullback but I very much doubt it will be deep due to alternation having been confirmed. This should keep track with the rest of the pairs.

Finally in EURJPY, while I was watching the recovery moving towards the extreme of the recovery I realised that we were going to see an expanded flat – and so it was. We may see some minor gains but overall, once EURUSD has given up on its rally, we should see some decent losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, March 26, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.4172



PULLBACK COMPLETE

Well, there is still a gap to the Dollar downside but it’s so slim that I’d rule it out. We have a bearish divergence in EURUSD, bullish divergence in USDCHF, bullish (although slim) divergence in USDJPY. GBPUSD is a bit different. We’ve seen a double zigzag and there’s room for a triple three – but will the market just be satisfied with a double? Let’s face it, GBPUSD has been a bit of a loner and doing its own funky stuff.

If there is any doubt that I have, then it’s USDJPY. I suspect we’ll see some losses but we should be looking for a turn back higher. I could guess at it, but in the lower degrees it’s far more difficult to judge. However, I suspect it will turn higher over today.

The Aussie… follow the first paragraph. It has broken below the hourly Price Equilibrium Cloud and dabbling with a break of the 4-hour Cloud…

With EURUSD looking to reverse to the downside, EURJPY should see a follow-through but I suspect that we’ll see a reversal back higher at some time – and driven by USDJPY. However, it could be a rather stunted recovery.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, March 23, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.4215



COMPLICATIONS

I can’t say that yesterday was an easy day. The fact that USDJPY has slipped lower this morning didn’t help. However, as far as I can see, we have completed the pullbacks in EURUSD and GBPUSD. In USDCHF we are looking at a deeper pullback.

Basically, the pullbacks in EURUSD and GBPUSD should be seen and that allows USDCHF and USDJPY to complete their final losses. The relative moves within the majors are basically quite equally measured. Therefore, I suspect we’ll get back into general correlation by the end of the day and – hopefully – we shall see a more balanced directional development from next week. Thus, just think “pullback and reversal” and then watch the relative developments through the majors.

The comments above provide a guideline for EURJPY. It has seen some ragged swings but basically bearish although it needs an initial pullback (most likely limited) and then for the follow through lower. This should promise the larger directional move. Perhaps it will begin today – but certainly next week I feel that EURUSD is going to be more bearish than USDJPY will be bullish.

The Aussie should now begin to develop in a more measured way and should follow the template of EURUSD and GBPUSD…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey