Wednesday, February 28, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.3857...



LIMITED PULLBACKS AND MORE ON THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

I had a run of a few days that I’d rather forget. Yesterday provided a much better outlook and throughout the main pairs, we still seem to be looking for the Dollar to remain buoyant. Indeed, while we could see some pullbacks, these should be limited and basically, we should see the Dollar to continue in its rally and may well continue through to the weekend.

If there is any pair that could see a deeper pullback (although after initial Dollar gains) it is in GBPUSD. It could tend to work in a rather confined range. What will be the challenge is how deep the pullback will be… Actually, this may also be the case in EURUSD. Therefore, once we get to this stage we’ll have to be alert to how deep the pullback will be…

USDJPY and USDCHF appear quite steady and on the bullish side – along with the Aussie.

It’s just EURJPY that has been developing in a rather circuitous manner but basically bearish. Given the general balance between EURUSD and USDJPY, both being Dollar bullish, it tends to see broad swings but the outcome is still in place.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Monday, February 26, 2018

NOW WE SHOULD SEE THAT FIRM DAY

Limp, listless and lacklustre… Really, it needn’t have been that way but clearly the market had no interest going into the weekend. So, the comments I made on Friday are now applicable. Friday saw an expanded flat in AUDUSD to complete the day while GBPUSD managed an incredible quirky triple three that required me to look into the 5-tick bar timeframe to work everything out.

EURUSD and USDCHF never turned up to do any work – unless sheer boredom of a shallow consolidation that could actually be considered as being constructive. Slackers! As for USDJPY, it looked like it had been drinking all day long meandering in a sideways move. I even suspect this may continue in the early hours of this week.

EURJPY? Well, it did what it had to – edging lower and lower – but that was the expectation. Indeed, while there is some upside that could be explored, frankly it still needs losses. So that brings me back to AUDUSD that is completing an expanded flat.

This should now see a Dollar bullish day.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, February 23, 2018

BACK TO… MORE OF THE SAME…

Ohhh… I didn’t like yesterday. It all started with a whip lower in the Dollar and a sharp rally. At that level in the 5-minute area, the structure was scant and I basically looked at this as a probably Wave i and Wave ii and followed by a Wave a/iii. Well, towards the end of the day we had a deep pullback. This shocked because we have seen a modest Wave -i- and Wave -ii- and followed by a second Wave i and deep Wave ii. It’s not something you’d think of because it implies a firm 5-wave move to form a Wave a- and thus a modestly deep Wave -b-/-iii-… This has been seen in both EURUSD and GBPUSD…

The Aussie also formed a deep Wave ii but hadn’t an earlier deep Wave -i- and Wave -ii-. This provides a convincing argument for these three pairs. USDCHF merely made a stronger rally than I had suspected but then a pullback while USDJPY also saw an approach to a key break level but hasn’t broken. Watch for the levels and the alternatives in the report.

Finally, in EURJPY, while there is room for a pullback higher, frankly, the next target is quite some way away…

This could be a firm day…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, February 22, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7829



GUESS WHAT… MORE OF THE SAME…

I have to admit to having a difficult time yesterday, to generate what a meaningful outcome. However, over the early hours of the morning, I managed – with the help of some swings – to then target in on the structures. This basically occurred towards the end of the North American session and we’re just coming into the Asian session. Cue the correction. To be honest, there’s not much room for a pullback so I’m not sure whether we’ll manage to cope with a sleepy 8-9 hours so we may just see Asia push a little more as the early Europeans begin to come awake after a cup of black coffee.

Once the coffee has been imbibed we should then see further Dollar gains…

This may give EURJPY the final chance to try and push back higher. With EURUSD needing a pullback higher and USDJPY (preferably) pushing higher, could we manage to get back above 133.38? It’s touch and go, so best to wait for the break levels.

AUDUSD is mimicking the Europeans at this point and therefore we’re most likely going to see the same template as the Europeans.

The basic expectation is to watch for Dollar bullish signals.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, February 21, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



This morning we have seen a high at 0.9370



MORE OF THE SAME…

Well… the pullback for the follow-through was pretty darn shallow! What’s more, it looks like we are going to see further Dollar gains and basically to the eventual targets I have been suggesting. However, before that, there is the risk of the normal Asian consolidation. This could still provide a pullback also though I can’t see this being too deep.

If there is any pair that can baulk the pattern, then it’s AUDUSD that looks like seeing losses but even then we’re close to a Wave iv and therefore it doesn’t look like an immediate rush lower. Perhaps I could include EURJPY that made a good job of a two-day sideways consolidation within a 70 point range. I wondered where the snoring was coming from.

So we’re likely going to see the normal slumber initially but overall the main Dollar-currency Dollar bullish move will continue over today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey