Wednesday, January 31, 2018

SLOW BUT STEADY

I had hoped for a more direct move higher in the Dollar yesterday. Perhaps that was naive considering the market has been used to sudden jerks lower in the Dollar. That’s exactly what occurred yesterday in EURUSD and GBPUSD in particular. So with yesterday’s deep-ish pullback, we should see a repeat of yesterday – further losses in EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Meanwhile, the other two majors twiddled their thumbs, looked around in a daze and basically succumbed to an expanded flat lower in USDJPY and a deeper pullback in USDCHF. Hopefully, now they’ll begin to see more constructive Dollar gains…

The Aussie managed to complete a deeper pullback. Thus, now we should see a move back higher but not in a huge way. Down in the southern hemisphere, it's summer so they’re probably sleeping a lot. (That’s the polar opposite of Tokyo which has been experiencing the coldest winter since I’ve been here…)

Finally, the cross – EURJPY – the fine balance between an expanded flat and a decline ended up as a correction and that tends to suggest losses. Having written that, I doubt it will be too robust because we have a bearish EURUSD and bullish USDJPY. It could be a limited range day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, January 29, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.4252




PULLBACK OR FOLLOW THROUGH?

As I mentioned last week, we should have seen the lows in the Dollar. This spurred a rally and pullback. The question mark in my mind now is whether the market will attempt to try and force it back towards the lows or we’ll see follow-through to the Dollar upside. There are signs that we could see a deeper pullback but I’m not really expecting a new high in EURUSD or GBPUSD. As for the other two majors, USDJPY does have a little room on the downside and equally USDCHF also. I’d like to think that we have seen the Dollar lows in these two but it’s best to allow for potential new lows.

The other argument is that we should be looking for the first reversal targets, where appropriate, that should see a move into the span of the Wave (a)/(b) in Wave (iv). It’s both EURUSD and GBPUSD that have those targets, having seen a final Dollar low in an impulsive development. USDJPY and USDCHF have been declining in a correction for quite some time.

If I am to choose the outcome of the Dollar losses versus bullish, then it may be the deeper pullback. I note that AUDUSD broke above the 0.8124 high that was seen on the 8th September. Friday saw a high at 0.8135. However, there’s an impulsive target not far above. Even then we may only see a shallow correction and for gains to continue.

As for EURJPY, it all depends on the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY but I suspect the upside is more likely but only for a correction.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, January 26, 2018

THE DAILY PULLBACKS ARE COMPLETE

We still required some Dollar losses yesterday. This week has been a bit rabid and difficult to manage the ratios through the minor and up to the higher wave degrees. If there was one element I really enjoyed it was the 1.4344 high in GBPUSD. That was the precise limit of the Wave (iv) that was given in my spreadsheet. I hadn’t been expecting to actually see that high. The wave (iv) had already satisfied alternation – but it did its job and decided to reach the Wave (iv) ratio limit. It has taken just over one year to complete.

That means we are now in an impulsive mode. These tend to be more straightforward – but, of course, we’ll have to work with the intermediate pullbacks.  

We've seen the initial reversal higher in the Dollar. We therefore now require how to work out the next leg. I note that the reversals have basically reached the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that are still in bearish trajectories. Therefore, the start of the day could see pretty limiting ranges – but that’s the forte of the Asian centre.

Once Europe and North America enter the fray, we should begin to see further Dollar gains.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, January 24, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7956...



INITIAL CAUTION – LATER LIMITED DOLLAR GAINS

The market remains pretty cautious – and pretty close to the recent Dollar lows also. I’m pretty certain GBPUSD will make a new high.  I’d prefer for EURUSD to hold below the 1.2323 high but there may be a risk that it could make a new high also, but it’s touch and go. We’re also close to the 110.19 low in USDJPY but even that can be broken. USDCHF has plenty of room to make a new corrective low.

So the 4-Majors are really set to have a cautious day but this should provide a catalyst to generate a more bullish Dollar. Even then, we’ll still need to work through the initial foundation waves so there’s hardly a great outlook over today and, most likely, tomorrow. It all seems pretty glum…

From the 0.8038 high, we have seen an ABC lower. I’d like this to be a Wave i but we’ll need to take care in case we see yet another high above the recent high. Either way, the outcome will return to the Dollar upside – even if the Dollar Index has seen a marginal new low.

That leaves the flailing EURJPY moving sideways to higher.

It looks like a tough day but one that should eventually provide a more Dollar bullish resolution…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, January 23, 2018

STILL NEED CARE

The market clearly needs a catalyst. Yesterday’s sideways trading drew yawns throughout – but there was an exception that was GBPUSD. It surreptitiously poked back higher in an overlap that now needs further gains. Having said that, we appear close to a pullback lower. At the same time, EURUSD baulked against the downside and decided that a broad set of swings took it sideways… Hence, USDCHF basically decided it didn’t want to really break any limits and sat back down in protest. All hail sleep…

I was in two minds in USDJPY yesterday. I still have some reservations although there is a basis for a firmer follow-through higher. I estimated a Wave -b-/-iii- pullback to the 50% retracement where we have some support and this is where it stalled.

We’ve seen a Wave (a) and Wave (b) in AUDUSD and that implies further losses.

Overall, it seems to me that we need the Dollar to take the lead now…

It’s just EURJPY that needs to resume losses from within the 136.30-136.63 range…

Good trading
Ian Copsey