Friday, April 20, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



CAP SEEN AT 0.7812 FOR LOSSES



A SOONER REVERSAL THAN EXPECTED

I clearly hadn’t caught the structure. The Dollar gains seen yesterday were always going to happen but obviously caught me out. USDJPY was the first to react with the break above 107.39. After that, all the other pairs began to play follow my leader. Thus, the expectation should now be back on the Dollar upside. However, the start appears to be extremely complicated and I tend to feel that we may see some recycling before the Dollar rally can continue higher. 

In GBPUSD, I am slightly surprised with the losses seen and while the high at 1.4376 failed to extend any further, it tends to complicate matters more. For now, it should be bearish – and has a daily bearish divergence – so this could have seen an alternative structure on the way up… Certainly, there still appears to be room for losses.

USDCHF saw only a minor pullback and is back on the upside. Indeed, it has generally been the leader of the pack. As long as it stays on the general Dollar downside, I’ll be happy. Even AUDUSD, after it’s deeper pullback, is now looking for losses. With all Dollar-currency pairs we have a unified outlook.

As for EURJPY, I had indicated the potential for an expanded flat within the recent peaks and that has led to a final high. This does look bearish overall…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, April 19, 2018

THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A DOLLAR BEARISH DAY

We’re coming to a point where there is some risk on the Dollar upside but if there is any, it should be limited. Looking through the pairs in general, the major expectation is for a reversal towards the Dollar downside. There’s a fine balance between the two at the start of the day but as we get to the European and North American sessions I suspect we’ll be back on the Dollar bullish road. Initially, there may even be the chance of a triangle/consolidation before the Dollar makes its way back to the upside. 

Can this finish the rally today? I’m not so sure. Maybe - but this market has been rather introverted for some while. It has been used to the Dollar downside over the past year or so and doesn’t seem to want to give up the idea of a stronger Dollar. I’ve clearly been too direct in my approach because I know where the Dollar is going. It has frustrated but before long there will be a stronger switch to the upside and I sense it will begin next week. 

AUDUSD clearly has a super slim margin on the upside but as long as things stand, we should begin to see a deeper round of losses. 

EURJPY? Well, it’ll either push above 132.97 for a minor follow-through and reversal – or it will break below 132.10…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, April 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 106.88




A DETOUR

Yesterday’s Dollar maintained the Dollar losses – although with a deep pullback. However, this move still needs further follow-through before we can see a reversal. For example, USDJPY has been steadily developing bearish corrective developments and still needs a follow-through to complete the third Wave -a-, a pullback and then a final 5-wave decline. Equally, EURUSD still has upside to develop while its neighbour in Switzerland should see a minor follow-through on the upside for a pullback lower. This should therefore suggest a 3-wave rally in GBPUSD. 

How long will it take? Well, I doubt we’ll see the completion today but perhaps tomorrow may find the final legs – but I’ll take it as it comes. There is one possible problem in GBPUSD. The ideal would be for a deeper pullback that we saw yesterday. However, since the Wave (b)/(iii) was very deep, it has satisfied alternation so it does have the potential for a more direct move to its high. 

AUDUSD? Well, I discovered an error in the development and this brings it forward. Of course, with the typical walkabout in Aussie land, we could still see some consolidation in the middle leg. However, basically we need to map out that 3-wave leg.

Keep things steady. By tomorrow end (most likely) we should begin to see the Dollar gains I have been waiting for. I note that there’s still downside room in the Dollar Index…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, April 17, 2018

BACK TO THE DOLLAR UPSIDE

My goodness, that was a slow day, meandering through the higher altitudes in GBPUSD and EURUSD with the deprivation thin air making the market rather light headed. Even now, 24 hours later, GBPUSD has approached the 1.43442 high within a slim whisker. That was the precise 58.6% but Wave (iv)’s can produce a little more and there is a daily bearish divergence.

So, within a slim range, we are beginning to see several pairs beginning to wilt. AUDUSD is one of them that should soon turn lower having developed an expanded flat. EURUSD appears to have topped out – a break below 1.2362 would confirm. At the same time, USDCHF also saw deeper (Dollar) losses but could see another dip along with USDJPY. 

Watch carefully in AUDUSD and once this finds its high we should begin to see a firmer Dollar resuming…

All this tends to suggest a slow start to today’s session in Asia so we’re likely to see some neutral, insipid trading before the European session. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 16, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR GBPUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.4296


EARLY PULLBACK AND LATER FOLLOW-THROUGH

Friday saw the Dollar lows as expected and from there, a modest push higher in the Dollar. There’s a good chance that we’ll see a correction early in the Asian session but then should look more to the Dollar upside. As mentioned on Friday, I feel that GBPUSD has completed its pullback and should now run with the same outlook in EURUSD and USDCHF. 

If I have any problem, it’s in USDJPY. It actually saw the highs I expected but there’s no sign of a bearish divergence – in the hourly or 4-hour time frame. I’m therefore wary of there being a very, very shallow Wave (b)… This pair will need some care. However, within EURUSD and USDCHF, there’s very little wriggle room on the Dollar downside and more likely a direct rally. This could drag GBPUSD and possibly USDJPY also…

IF there are to be any problems, it does still stem from USDJPY. We saw the expected highs in EURJPY and therefore the outlook should be bearish in the cross. That will require EURUSD to be stronger (on the downside) compared to USDJPY.

Equally, in AUDUSD I noted a slight adjustment in the bearish structure. This triggered gains above 0.7799 but with the prior development, I had made an error in the early stages. This has now been corrected but will now suggest the losses I have been expecting. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey 






Friday, April 13, 2018

TODAY SHOULD SET UP THE NEXT STRONGER TREND

When you know where the Dollar is going over the coming months, it’s difficult to think that we can see so many Dollar bearish pullbacks. However, as far as I can see, after today I feel that we’ll finally get to begin the next – firmer – gains in the Dollar. Today should set this reversal back to the Dollar upside. In the process of the reversal it still needs a bullish Dollar but hopefully, it will then pull the trigger. 

Yesterday’s losses in EURUSD were constructive but now needs to see a pullback higher. At the same time we have seen firmer gains in USDJPY – and with these two combined it should lead EURJPY to a new high. Once that is done, we’ll be looking more towards the Dollar to take up the reigns. Even then, we’ll need to establish the foundation waves and the potential for a high in USDJPY for a correction lower. So, it looks like quite a mixed bag across the pairs over the coming week.

Even GBPUSD has pushed higher and appears to need a new high. It was not expected but from the 1.4344 high, I missed a rather ragged and untidy deep Wave b/iii in the process – and it was that which has caused some problems. Once we have seen the high in GBPUSD we should turn back to the downside. 

The Aussie may well have seen its final high but we may need a final new corrective high – and very close to the extreme. It’s touch and go between a deeper pullback (but not too deep) or just direct losses.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  






Thursday, April 12, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2395



A DAY OF TWISTS AND TURNS

We’ve seen the Dollar downside begin to wilt. I can’t rule out a minor new low – and in fact, I’d rather like to see that happen – basically for EURJPY. If I am correct in seeing a new high in the cross it will tend to confirm the expanded flat from the 128.93 low. Indeed, it looks like EURUSD will need one more rally and it may be accompanied by USDJPY. Once we have seen that – or just direct losses – then we will see Dollar gains. 

This tends to suggest a day in two halves but without excessive development. Once the Dollar has tested those extremes watch for stronger Dollar bullish divergences. We do have a decent hourly bearish divergence in EURUSD but also we have seen a potential Double Top in GBPUSD. 

Once we have established the Dollar upside I suspect we’ll see firmer follow-through. 

As for the downside up currency (aka AUDUSD), I’ve been fairly flat on this pair. However, with the firmer gains we saw once again yesterday, I realised the earlier error I made – basically one of those deep Wave b’s of Wave iii. Therefore, we should soon see the Aussie begin to move back lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, April 11, 2018

FRUSTRATED…

During the week’s break I was looking at the market, basically to try and keep up to date. I thought I’d caught the structure but clearly, I had not. These past two days has seen some grisly structures that really don’t make much sense although I suspect they are buried in the tick level – even the 1-minute has been exceptionally difficult. 

At least USDJPY is making gains but frankly, it's a bit of a mess. As long as the upside develops it should help provide a move above 107.49. However, I am very cautious considering the weirdness in general. I really thought I’d caught EURUSD also but that also fell apart. Again, without particular confidence, I am looking for a reversal lower soon. That is needed in USDCHF also. An even bigger surprise was the depth of the gains in GBPUSD. That sharp decline from the 1.4244 high just didn’t appear to suggest 5-wave decline but the depth of the pullback will contradict. 

Overall, it tends to suggest that we should soon be looking for Dollar gains again. 

I’ve been suggesting a triangle in AUDUSD but the recovery has been extremely deep. I can’t see the potential for an expanded flat so the outlook should be bearish – confirming the expectation of Dollar gains…

One point in EURJPY, with the break above 132.42 seems to suggest an expanded flat but I’m not exactly confident that we have seen the high. This should see a new high and reversal soon. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, April 10, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



BASE SEEN AT 106.61...





WHAT A STRANGE DAY THAT WAS…

Indeed, it was strange. Well, perhaps “unusual” is a more appropriate word. I’m referring to the deeper pullback in EURUSD. Friday’s high was the “normal” type of pullback in a Wave iv but the move up to 1.2330 was definitely an “anomaly” being so close to the 58.6% extreme at 1.2335. Along with that weirdness, USDJPY has seen the deeper pullback that I normally see in a Wave iv. Really, I wouldn’t want to see any break of 1.2335…

With those deeper pullbacks, GBPUSD and USDCHF managed quite deep pullbacks in their respective Wave b/iii’s. Throughout, it now suggests that yesterday’s outlook should now develop and with the addition of Dollar bullish divergences across all the four Majors.

We now have EURJPY rather elevated and with an hourly bearish divergence. As long as EURUSD doesn’t break the 58.6% retracement we should now begin to see deeper losses. Having said that the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD could initially see some ragged development before stronger losses. 

I still remain cautious in AUDUSD but suspect we’ll see the downside. This could end up as a triangle before any further deeper losses develop… 

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 9, 2018

SWINGS

On the whole, we have seen the Dollar pushing higher but certainly not to the end of the outlook I put together. However, it has provided some steady gains and at a guesstimate, I’d suggest we’ve gotten through around half of the outlook I gave. Right now we are looking to soon see further Dollar gains but in what looks to be a zigzag – although not the corrective type but a 3-wave move in a Wave v. Once that has been seen, we’ll need a pullback. Thus, it looks like we’re going to see some broad swinging moves rather than a trending move. Be prepared for limited moves in both directions. In GBPUSD there may well be a risk of a complex correction – but we’ll have to judge that when we get into the middle of the range. 

In EURJPY, we appear to have formed a structure that doesn’t really allow for gains so I really can’t directly see room for a trend unless USDJPY drops lower soon after the Dollar swings. I’d suggest taking care in this pair.

As for AUDUSD, well flip… it’s done a walkabout from the 18thMarch through a long, erratic sideways move. I’d like to think that it can see losses but an alternative view could just see a longer ranging triangle. It could be a tricky week.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  






Friday, March 30, 2018

NOW THE FOLLOW-THROUGH

It was a strange old day yesterday. It started well but then, in some pairs, we had the pullback – more a sideways move although USDJPY decided to see a much deeper pullback. This was one of those deep Wave b/iii’s. Therefore, we still have some work to rally back to the targets I mentioned yesterday. The pullback in EURUSD was more of a sideways range – but which was basically the Wave -iii- followed by a correction in Wave -iv- and then Wave -v- to form the Wave [a] and a pullback in Wave [b] and lower. A similar development occurred in USDCHF while GBPUSD saw a staggered decline to a Wave a, pullback in Wave b to see losses now down to the Wave c/iii. The Aussie was pretty much following the European template.

Therefore, we’re due Dollar gains over today.

As for EURJPY, given the general balance between EURUSD and USDJPY, we should see EURUSD stronger than USDJPY and therefore the cross should also see a rather messy, swinging decline.

Have a great week
Ian Copsey  







PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NEXT REPORT WILL BE ON THE 9TH APRIL

Thursday, March 29, 2018

EARLY SWINGS AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

Yesterday was a day of Dollar gains, very much as expected. As a template for today, I suspect very much the same. I can see that we’re moving into a corrective development but, in general, the pullbacks don’t really suggest deep corrections. Therefore, Asia will likely handle the pullback while Europe and North America will provide the “oomph” for the Dollar rally.

In particular, USDJPY forced a much stronger follow-through than I had anticipated and rushed through the (second) first reversal target. We’ll have to take care in this pair because it should run into several barriers, pullbacks and higher barriers.

Both EURUSD and USDCHF still have Dollar gains to go but there will be some intermediate pullbacks on the way. At the same time, GBPUSD being its own master has a similar development to USDJPY. Initially, the Pound will likely see a pullback higher before any stronger follow-through to the downside. This suggests that the losses in EURUSD will outpace USDJPY and that should see EURJPY looking to the downside.

And down under, we should see the same type of bearish development – with swings – as it moves lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Wednesday, March 28, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



UPSIDE TARGET MET AT 131.81

DOWNSIDE TARGET MET AT 130.55




FURTHER FOLLOW-THROUGH

That was a better day. We’re back on the Dollar bullish track but very clearly in the early stages of building the basis for a stronger Dollar. This is still going to need some care, given the markets’ are still rather cautious having seen the deep pullback over last week. However, if we take GBPUSD as an example, the expanded flat it formed will clearly need losses back below 1.3711 and you can bet your bottom Dollar that it will break through that low by a margin.

While there can be a pullback in some of the pairs after yesterday’s Dollar strength, we shall need to take care and watch for the reversal. Having seen some pairs with a Wave (i) using retracement ratios are rather flaky so better use momentum. However, for example, we have EURUSD looking to break through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud while USDCHF is attempting to break clear of its own 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud – just as GBPUSD is doing the same. Indeed, USDJPY has managed to break above the 4-hour Cloud having following a retest of the Cloud high.  

AUDUSD should, theoretically, see a deep pullback but I very much doubt it will be deep due to alternation having been confirmed. This should keep track with the rest of the pairs.

Finally in EURJPY, while I was watching the recovery moving towards the extreme of the recovery I realised that we were going to see an expanded flat – and so it was. We may see some minor gains but overall, once EURUSD has given up on its rally, we should see some decent losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey