Wednesday, June 10, 2015


Harmonic Elliott Wave Forecasts

Harmonic Elliott Wave is unlike the original version of Elliott Wave that has no means to define how a 5-wave move must develop. It relies on interpreting swing highs and swing lows only. There is no way of knowing in advance where a wave will end. Wave 3's can be below 100% or can be any ratio that happens to develop. There is no clear alternation in the original, while Harmonic Elliott Wave sees a relationship between Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) for the majority of occasions. 

R.N. Elliott's structure includes extended waves, failed fifths and leading/ending diagonals, unlimited "stretching" of a correction in the direction of the trend. Harmonic Elliott Wave works with 3-wave moves and with a strict ratio structure. This eradicates extended waves, failed fifths, leading and ending diagonals along with the "stretching" of corrections. 

Harmonic Elliott Wave has a single, uniform structure for a 5-wave move and handles all the crazy add-ons that make traditional Elliott Wave almost impossible to generate exact and precise targets. Harmonic Elliott Wave can generate pin-point projection targets. 

This generates a truly fractal development in which lower degree targets must match higher degree targets by stringently applying the ratio structure across all wave degrees.

Below are just a few examples of forecasts that have been made. 

Long Term Forecasts

Dow Jones Industrial Index – July 2010

A forecast in July 2010 for the DJIA to rally to 12,600 +/- 200 points and for an approximate 20% price decline before rallying back to new highs.

The Wave (iii) target ended at 12,876 on the 3rd May 2011 and provoked a correction lower in Wave (iv) to 10,404.49 being a price drop of 19%. From the Wave (iv) price rallied to just below the 14,168 high and saw a limited correction before the rally resumed. All 5-wave sequences followed the ratio structure across the wave degrees.

Dow Jones Industrial Index – May 2013 and February 2014

This was an excerpt from the report on the 26th February which, in the long term structure comments retained the comments from the prior May – in 2013 – in which the forecast for the top of the DOW to be between the 76.4% - 85.4% projection at 17,298 – 18,574 and favoured the top of the range.

In the daily structure, I estimated the Wave -iii- of Wave (c) / (iii) to be either at the 238.2% projection at 17,356 or the 261.8% at 17,618. The Wave -iii- was seen on the 20th September 2014 at 17,350.64.

I also estimated the Wave (iii) to be between the 298.4% - 323.6% projection at 17,329 – 17,738. In fact, it eventually stalled on the 6th December 2014 at 17,991.19 being the 338.2% projection.

EURUSD – September 11th 2012

This forecast was made on the 11th September 2012 in which I estimated the Wave ^E, the end of the multi-year triangle around 1.3550-1.3850 and to develop in 3-waves.

The chart above displays the entire triangle and the Wave ^E high that ended at 1.3993.

USDJPY – March 26th 2012

This forecast was made on the 26th March 2012 in which I forecast a 5-wave rally that would end around 100-101, based on cycles and first reversal targets.

This forecast was made around the time of the Wave (b) of Wave (i). This initially saw a rally in Wave (c) to complete Wave (i) and was followed by a long and deep Wave (ii). This implied a brief and shallow Wave (iv). The final high was at 103.78.

Gold Forecast on the 27th November 2012

This forecast on the 27th November 2012 was for a deep decline to reach to between 1,138 – 1,262 area. Note that Wave b/iii can deepen as much as 93%.

Price actually exceeded the 1,138 area and to the 1,046.32 level. From there we have begun to see further gains...

Medium Term Forecasts

EURUSD Forecast on the 20th November 2013

This was a forecast over a period of 1-2 months. The market was bearish EURUSD and Elliotticians were claiming that the structure was corrective.

On the 20th November 2013 I estimated the Wave [iii] would reach the 238.2% projection at 1.3684 and that the Wave [iv] would be between 14.6%-23.6%. Overall, I estimated that the rally (a Wave -a- of Wave -v-) could reach 1.3832.

The Wave [iii] stalled within 7 points of the perfect 238.2% projection and corrected by 14.6% precisely. These two levels were hit over a Non Farm Payrolls release...

AUDUSD Forecast on the 16th December 2014

The 16th December report retained a forecast I made for the purple Wave -iii- target being at the 176.4% projection at 0.7569 with estimated lower degree development.

On the 2nd April the Wave -iii- finally stalled at 0.7532 being the (still valid) 179.8% projection…

Short Term Forecasts

USDCHF Forecast on the 6th May 2015

The day forecast looking for a low and reversal higher in USDCHF at 0.9217 at least – but more likely to the 0.9170-89 area.

The low formed on the 7th May at 0.9071 and has reversed higher…

For more information, please contact me.

Ian Copsey

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