Thursday, April 26, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET AT 0.7551



A REVERSAL BACK TO THE DOLLAR DOWNSIDE

I had hoped we had seen the Dollar highs yesterday but it managed to last a little longer. We are now very, very close to a reversal that will turn on a half a hair’s breadth. To give an idea, we shall be seeing a Wave (i) in USDJPY and EURUSD. Cable has been a bit tardy but will complete a Wave (a) and USDCHF… well, it has been running ahead of all the other three for some time but will need a modest pullback. 

As for the only other Dollar-currency pair I work with - that’s AUDUSD – it is going to turn back to the upside just in time to hold above the 0.7501 low. 

The outcome will be a corrective development. These can be horribly difficult to work with but out of all the pairs we should be looking for USDCHF to guide the way because of its alternative structure in a Wave iv. This may well provide the timing of the reversal for all pairs. 

As for EURJPY… now there’s a puzzle but I suspect USDJPY will be weaker than EURUSD but let’s see…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Wednesday, April 25, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



TARGET MET AT 1.2181



A BIT OF A MIX…

Overall, the main direction should have switched back to the Dollar downside. However, I have doubts in GBPUSD – I suspect a new corrective low and recovery – and that may be valid for AUDUSD also. The latter is rather touch and go. Both USDJPY and USDCHF should have found their current highs and while a pullback is likely, by the end of the day we should be looking for a lower Dollar. At the same time, EURUSD should be heading higher. 

With the general mix, overall, I’m tending towards a rather rough and tumble day and should GBPUSD make a new low, then it would then tend to suggest that we’ll begin to see all pairs running at the same time.

Another comment on AUDUSD: I actually have this as a daily low and for a rally back above 0.8135. I can see some gains rather like EURUSD and (later) GBPUSD, but I really wonder whether it will suddenly take off like a madman… However, just for the moment, it should take a trip along with EURUSD and maybe later GBPUSD.

EURJPY… now there’s a puzzle too. I have found a potential solution to suggest we have seen a high. I have some concerns. However, with EURUSD expecting gains and vice versa in USDJPY, it doesn’t look like it will get very far at all… Most likely USDJPY will see deeper losses compared to EURUSD…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, April 24, 2018

WE’RE DUE A REVERSAL - BUT SOME PAIRS ARE MORE STAGNANT

Yesterday’s Dollar gains were pretty impressive. I hadn’t expected the degree of the gains and that avoided the swings. However, we’re now very close to a reversal and there may be a risk of a deep pullback. It was interesting to see the losses in AUDUSD – and running into the downside targets I had been looking for. The interesting point here is that, if I have the daily structure correct, then it will need a new daily high. 

That in itself suggests that we’re going to see some strong development across the majors. EURUSD is close to a reversal higher and could be deep. USDCHF appears to still have some further (limited) gains before losses develop while GBPUSD is closing in on a low for a pullback higher. I have some reservations in USDJPY but even here we should be finding a new high before a reversal.

So basically, the entire range of these pairs seem to have a rough correlation in terms of a reversal. However, I have a feeling that USDJPY will see deeper losses compared to EURUSD that should see EURJPY slide lower – or may be develop in a consolidation.

First thing – look for the Dollar to move back to the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Monday, April 23, 2018

LIMITED FOLLOW-THROUGH AND CORRECTION

Having seen some decent Dollar gains, we are now close to a reversal. As a broad guide, it initially suggests further Dollar gains, potentially some lower degree swings and later a reversal. Therefore, by the end of today (perhaps tomorrow) we’re more likely to be seeing the Dollar making a move upside. We’re already beginning to see the early stages of Dollar bearish divergences and that suggests that by late Asian/and into the European trading we will likely be developing the follow-through higher in the Dollar and then the reversal. As a simpler guide basically this suggests broad swings.

EURJPY made some decent losses also. We can begin to look for a pullback higher and later for a reversal. The only possible detour would be through a sideways consolidation considering that EURUSD and USDJPY are likely to have similar development – just opposites.

As for the Aussie, most likely it’ll be a bearish day except that there is initial upside risk first. 

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey