Wednesday, February 21, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF



This morning we have seen a high at 0.9370



MORE OF THE SAME…

Well… the pullback for the follow-through was pretty darn shallow! What’s more, it looks like we are going to see further Dollar gains and basically to the eventual targets I have been suggesting. However, before that, there is the risk of the normal Asian consolidation. This could still provide a pullback also though I can’t see this being too deep.

If there is any pair that can baulk the pattern, then it’s AUDUSD that looks like seeing losses but even then we’re close to a Wave iv and therefore it doesn’t look like an immediate rush lower. Perhaps I could include EURJPY that made a good job of a two-day sideways consolidation within a 70 point range. I wondered where the snoring was coming from.

So we’re likely going to see the normal slumber initially but overall the main Dollar-currency Dollar bullish move will continue over today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, February 20, 2018

PULLBACK AND FOLLOW-THROUGH

Apart from the additional high in EURUSD, basically we managed to navigate the final legs in the Dollar. As far as I can see, we’re all done and good. From the Dollar lows – and through a slow market due to the U.S. holiday - we have basically seen some constructive Dollar gains. This should now see some Dollar losses today. How deep? Yes… Good question… The answer is anywhere between 5.6% and 100%...

Most likely, we’ll see the customary quiet Asian session that could even stretch into the European session due to the uncertainty of how North America will react to yesterday’s move. Overall, once the market has resolved the depth of the correction I suspect we’re going to see a firmer directional move.

This should give EURJPY an opportunity to push higher but I’m not expecting a strong move. Therefore, keep an eye out for reversal signals.

As for the Aussie, it decided to go for the Triple Three and that means it’s in line with the Europeans. However, don’t expect a sudden rush because we haven’t yet completed a 5-wave move. That suggests the potential for a consolidation…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, February 16, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD



TARGET MET 4 POINTS SHORT OF 0.7970...


FINALISING THE DOLLAR LOWS

The market really made a meal of the Dollar losses yesterday. We may even see a minor follow through but it’s more or less there. With the U.S. bank holiday on Monday, we should see some squaring of positions and that will likely conveniently provide the reversal lower. However, as I mentioned yesterday, we shall next have to navigate the Waves -i- and Wave -ii- to provide the platform for a stronger move. Therefore, we’ll probably have to be patient to allow these waves to develop.

More interesting was the depth of the pullback in EURUSD… That’s going to need a healthy move…

I still feel that USDJPY and GBPUSD need a minor new Dollar low before a reversal but that shouldn’t take too long. USDCHF could also be the same. There was always a duality - as I provided an alternative outcome – and therefore take care today. I’m in two minds about EURUSD but even if it makes a new high there’s still some room.

The balance between EURUSD and USDJPY provided a flat day in EURJPY. I get the sense that we should see USDJPY make the cross move higher before EURUSD begins to reverse…

Has AUDUSD found a final high? We’ve seen a double zigzag. Could there be a triple three? These issues are always difficult to judge – so take care.

Have a great long weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, February 15, 2018

LIKELY A DAY OF SWINGS

Yesterday’s Dollar losses were a little stronger than expected but the outcome has actually provided a more balanced finale to this particular move. Through the pairs, there are still one or two pairs that could extend the Dollar losses but it shouldn’t be a strong move. Once we come to the point where we see reversals we shall then need to navigate the foundation waves for the move back towards the Dollar upside. Since we’re right a reversal point we just cannot even begin to suggest how these will form. Let’s just say that we’re right at an extreme, at this point, and therefore place stops beyond the current limits – GBPUSD being a possible exception although I feel it will fall into the main group. This does suggest that even the upside down currency will follow the rest of the brat pack.

Thus, take care but overall we should soon begin on a more bullish road…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, February 14, 2018

BACK INTO THE BREACH

Steady Dollar losses continued to develop over yesterday. However, we’re getting towards my targets now. I’d like to think that we’ll see the reversal today lower but if there are any long consolidations, perhaps it’ll be tomorrow. My expectation is for the recovery we have seen to complete today.

This should also allow the room for USDJPY to complete its moves although it seems to be a broad swinging move. USDCHF conceded to the downside, but still within the structure I have been looking at so I feel we’ll see gains in both these two pairs.

Ideally, we should also see GBPUSD push up one more leg before the reversal that should coincide with EURUSD – and possibly with AUDUSD. Thus, keep eyes peeled for reversal indications throughout the pairs.

Good trading
Ian Copsey