Tuesday, January 23, 2018

STILL NEED CARE

The market clearly needs a catalyst. Yesterday’s sideways trading drew yawns throughout – but there was an exception that was GBPUSD. It surreptitiously poked back higher in an overlap that now needs further gains. Having said that, we appear close to a pullback lower. At the same time, EURUSD baulked against the downside and decided that a broad set of swings took it sideways… Hence, USDCHF basically decided it didn’t want to really break any limits and sat back down in protest. All hail sleep…

I was in two minds in USDJPY yesterday. I still have some reservations although there is a basis for a firmer follow-through higher. I estimated a Wave -b-/-iii- pullback to the 50% retracement where we have some support and this is where it stalled.

We’ve seen a Wave (a) and Wave (b) in AUDUSD and that implies further losses.

Overall, it seems to me that we need the Dollar to take the lead now…

It’s just EURJPY that needs to resume losses from within the 136.30-136.63 range…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, January 22, 2018

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



TARGET MET AT 135.18.




DOLLAR TO THE UPSIDE

I was a little disappointed on Friday. I had hoped for more direct gains in the Dollar but that was not to happen. Well, apart from GBPUSD that made a 4-point break above 1.3941, basically we saw a slow pullback through the other pairs. This should, over the day, reverse the Dollar back to the upside. It doesn’t mean there cannot be a Dollar correction lower over the Asian session, but overall we should see the Dollar resume its upward path.

However, I do have some reservations in USDJPY. The structure is a little vague and until 111.12-20 finally breaks. That should provide a stronger follow through. Until then, take care. The balance of the structures across the majors could allow USDJPY to move higher initially but if the other pairs come to a point where a correction is required there may be risk of a break below Friday’s low before this pair rallies more firmly.

This should see EURJPY remain in a range – or perhaps a modest pullback higher – before the 135.18 low breaks. An alternative would be a complex correction.

As for the Aussie, at long last, we are beginning to see it finally extend losses. Again, as with some of the other pairs, we may see a pullback higher early in the day, but overall we should see follow-through lower…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, January 19, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



TARGET MET AT 110.68.



SOME CARE REQUIRED BUT FOCUS MORE ON A FIRMER DOLLAR

I wasn’t too surprised yesterday. There were a few wrinkles but basically the general expectations I had were basically close to my template. The hourly and 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds played quite a solid role throughout. Still, both GBPUSD and USDCHF failed to penetrate the 4-hour Clouds. I suspect they’ll manage to penetrate the Dollar bullish side of the Clouds today. They’re flattening out and this tends to suggest a penetration today.

In EURUSD and USDJPY, having already penetrated the 4-hour Cloud highs to reach targets and then corrected back into the 4-hour Clouds. We should see the Clouds support the Dollar for a stronger follow-through today.

The Aussie – and even EURJPY are similar to GBPUSD and USDCHF in terms of where the 4-hour Clouds have been thwarting the Dollar upside in the Aussie and downside for EURJPY. The Clouds are flattening out so I’m expecting penetration today also.

However, no doubt, it’ll probably take Europe and/or North America to provide the impetus.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, January 18, 2018

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



TARGET MET AT 1.2323



STILL NEED SWINGS

The Dollar losses have stalled. Long live the bulls.

Given that we have to now form foundation waves, it still implies swings – unless, of course, we see mini-minor, eensy weensy Wave (ii)’s but I can’t see that happening. Of the 4 majors, it’s only GBPUSD that has not managed to break below the hourly Price Equilibrium Clouds – but is threatening. Both USDJPY and EURUSD have even broken through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds while USDCHF is challenging.

Therefore, it’s only a matter of time before we’ll be able to complete a lower degree Wave [a] in USDJPY, a Wave [i] in EURUSD and a Wave (i) in USDCHF. GBPUSD is still lost in the hedgerows in the British countryside. (Well, it’s worth the scenery…)

Thus, before long we’ll have to see a pullback lower in the Dollar.

I’m now pretty certain that even the Aussie has topped out. It has broken below the hourly Price Equilibrium Cloud but still needs to penetrate the 4-hour Cloud low – but is pushing. Both hourly and 4-hour divergences are pushing their weight.

That just leaves EURJPY that has been enjoying its own swings but needs to break below both the hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, January 17, 2018

MINI-DEEP CORRECTIONS?

No deep corrections. However, in some pair that suggests mini-deep corrections. This is based on USDJPY that saw a pullback to 110.98 in a Wave -iv- and a Wave -a-. Thus we need to establish the Wave -b- and the follow-through in Wave -c-/-v-. EURUSD may well have the same outlook while USDCHF is still extending losses but that requires pullbacks. This may well be the same for GBPUSD.

Therefore, it tends to suggest limited Dollar losses now just to complete the final Wave -v-’s. We’re beginning to see Dollar bullish divergences developing in both hourly and 4-hourly momentum. There’s a good chance that we’ll see the Dollar lows today – but we’ll have to allow for any complex corrections.

It looks like EURJPY has topped out – and that tends to work with the general expectations noted above. However, it may well mean that the cross will be a little scrappy but overall bearish I sense.

As for the Aussie… well, as I have mentioned before, the structure has been as tough as old boots so it will be well to use small positions to allow for any possible minor new highs above 0.7878…

Good trading
Ian Copsey