Thursday, December 21, 2017

MERRY CHRISTMAS

The market has become far too tricky with the normal lower fractals being split into lower and lower fractals. This causes all sorts of problems... Thus, I shall be taking a break until the New Year.

May I wish you a pleasant and happy holiday season.

Ian Copsey

Still risky development

We’ve seen more Dollar bearish development and actually this suggests some follow-through. It is very clear that the market players aren’t playing – or maybe they are and that’s why they’ve left it to others to work in thin liquidity. I’ve always preferred to just shut down the shop during this period because of the mangled, complicated indifference.

That EURJPY broke the highs suggests that EURUSD will likely go higher – but USDJPY should also. Within all this, the frenzied and frazzled fractals also generate added complications. From this point forward it will be prudent to limit the period of time with a position.

Overall, I tend to feel that this rabid development will continue through to the end of the year – although within that time I feel GBPUSD will find a new high in the Wave ^C. I still feel there may be a deeper pullback in USDCHF but it won’t be long before it will begin to reverse back higher.

The Aussie appears to be bearish…

Take care in these markets…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, December 20, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY




TARGET MET AT 113.07

The market is like a yoyo…

I did get some Dollar gains yesterday but not throughout the 6 pairs. GBPUSD saw losses but then gave them up. USDJPY made a gallant rally and the Aussie did its best to copy GBPUSD. Otherwise, USDCHF lunged one way then the other. EURUSD just decided that it wanted to try and scale the mountain and that helped EURJPY to form an expanded flat. Now that was a feat. I would never have thought that we’d see a rally so perfect. This was an expanded flat in a Wave (b)/(iii). The “original” Wave (b) was at 133.88 – a 91% retracement. The expansion made it to 133.91 – the absolute maximum that I have seen in this position. That it fell perfectly between 133.88 and 133.91 is just preposterous!! Both 15-min and 30-min momentum provided bearish divergences…

Thus, we should see USDJPY move lower – and I suspect EURUSD also…

My suspicions in GBPUSD tend to suggest that we are seeing the triangle scenario.

The Aussie, while having some room on the upside, is expected to extend losses…

Still, as I mentioned yesterday, this time of year the market liquidity tends to be limited and the “fractalized” lower degree fractals can cause problems. Take care.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, December 18, 2017

FRIDAY'S FORECASTS FOR GBPUSD AND AUDUSD

GBPUSD


Target met at 1.3305


AUDUSD


Target met at 0.7637


IAN COPSEY



Limited initial follow-through

While there can be limited pullbacks in the range of pairs, the main drive should be Dollar bullish still. However, having written that, the follow-through should be relatively limited. How quickly this develops is a different matter. Very clearly we’re in the final 5-day week and even then the lunchtimes tend to get extended at this time of year. Not only that, the last three days of this week tend to be rather lacklustre while after the Xmas celebrations there are just three more days that replicate the three days before Xmas. So it’s best not to get too bold with position sizes.

However, there is one pair – USDJPY – that needs a deep pullback first. If this is seen, then it’ll need to play catch up to then follow the main Dollar bullish directional flow…

Another outlier may be in AUDUSD in seeing a Dollar bearish pullback before losses resume.

So over today – maybe two days if it’s really sluggish - we should see follow through but then a correction. The pullback appears to be modestly deep but, of course, it’s always the corrections that slow down the development.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, December 15, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECASTS FOR USDCHF AND EURJPY

USDCHF

TARGET MET BETWEEN 0.9837-46


EURJPY

TARGET MET AT 132.16

IAN COPSEY


Still some early swings before a follow-through

We have seen a range of reactions within the 6 pairs. The Aussie and EURUSD have completed an expanded flat. The Aussie has only just got to that point and a mild dip while EURUSD has managed a bearish foundation. USDCHF has done enough to pull itself out of its decline and GBPUSD has dithered, had a little turn and seems to be in a tizzy. However, it may have managed to develop a bearish foundation wave also.

As for USDJPY… well, I reckon it hasn’t yet met its final downside. Having said that, I reckon the early part of the day will find its base… Indeed, that last dip may well allow EURJPY to find a low for a pullback but much depends on the first reaction in EURUSD. It could still see a recycling higher but it looks pretty keen to get on with the downside.

So, over the Asian session and into the European, we should see the settings for a firmer directional wave…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, December 14, 2017

A shake out

I was feeling quite comfortable as I entered a few hours sleep. I woke up around 3am and began to go through the analysis and… smack, bang and a bomb exploded. December market syndrome…

So I spent much of the time having to work through the mess. Mostly it is done – there could be minor new Dollar losses but overall we should then revert back to the Dollar bullish development.

After that Dollar crash, we have very little wriggle room before it turns around to continue further losses. However, I can’t see that happening with all the foundation development that has gone on before. One pair, USDCHF does have that downside options – but again – just a limited dip. The Aussie could do the same although it will need a pullback first before a new high.

Overall, that suggests that we’re going to see limited initial moves, hopefully for the foundation waves for the next push higher in the Dollar – and that tends to provide the outliers in USDCHF and AUDUSD to complete their moves.

It looks like a choppy day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey