Thursday, November 2, 2017

Caution

I am puzzled. USDCHF has reached within a whisker of the 1.0037 high – but may be a Wave iii – or the potential of an expanded flat. USDJPY appears to have completed a possible correction – but higher. Maybe this could still see another 3-wave move that would allow an expanded flat. These two can basically be reasonable. However, the recovery in EURUSD ended in a complete mess. I’m tempted to suggest that we have seen a 16.9% retracement in Wave [ii] but that tends to conflict with the two pairs above. There appear to be too many conflicts between these pairs.

Now add GBPUSD. Well, I needed a minor adjustment due to the deeper pullback but basically, this still has a rally to complete.

So we’re getting very close to a reversal but with the biggest issue being in EURUSD.

I am looking at, most likely, bearish USDJPY and USDCHF along with a bullish GBPUSD and therefore, somehow, we should see gains in EURUSD but I wish I could feel more confident about it…

Certainly, EURJPY completed a zigzag at 132.83. It may have formed the Wave (b) for losses but should be driven by USDJPY. Otherwise, a break above yesterday’s high will need a second zigzag.

Finally, the Aussie is in rather the same situation as EURUSD except the structure was clear. It still has two options – very clearly a second zigzag (or a third) but any earlier break below 0.7639 would look bearish. This could be impulsive but there is a risk of an expanded flat.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







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