Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Is it Christmas already?

I only say that because the market really appears to not want to trade. Well, perhaps we can include Thanksgiving into the picture also. Gosh, the development has been so sluggish for some while now that the lower degree waves are finding even lower wave degrees to build up into the “normal” lower degree waves. I have been finding myself dropping into the tick-bar charts to make any sense and in the process the analysis is getting more and more complicated with complicated corrections.

Basically, we should continue with the sideways to Dollar bullish outlook. Take care when a structure begins to turn in on itself that could be the trigger for a haemorrhage that will extend any complex corrections.

Note that USDJPY still appears to need further losses initially – along with EURUSD - and that will likely pull down EURJPY. The Aussie is now in a bullish correction but even that pair can be pretty slow and even generate corrective patterns.

So, not an easy day. Probably EURUSD and USDJPY appear more likely to generate a limited follow-through and this mean taking profits when seen…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Friday, November 17, 2017

Is the market hibernating?

Certainly the winter has come earlier than normal here in Tokyo…

I didn’t have any thoughts of a strong move yesterday but I have to say that it managed to fall even flatter than I had expected. Quite frankly, while I am obviously expecting movement, I’m not expecting a roaring end to the week. Indeed, I see limited moves again today. If there are any pairs that could manage to see a follow-through then it’s USDJPY and a bit in Cable. Well, the Aussie can make a dip but not too far.

However, I have spotted a slight issue. It may not be critical – or it may be… Yesterday’s pullback stalled 0.006 higher than the Wave -ii- to form an expanded flat. However, I also noted that the 112.47 low saw an 87% projection in the original Wave -v-. It’s unusual but could be ok – but then the 112.47 low was a valid Wave -iii- projection. Thus the pullback may be the Wave -iv- (113.32) and therefore there may be a risk of a new low…

EURUSD is still uncertain and I also noted an alternative that could allow one more rally. This is quite frustrating but it’s still worth taking care. I also note that USDCHF is coming towards a Wave v so that the risk may be for a reversal lower.

So, there are still some potential tricky elements today – take care.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, November 16, 2017




Beginning to come together

Yesterday’s trading provided some challenges but also some end results. However, I’m not sure that all pairs managed that just yet. The most challenging has been in EURUSD due to the very direct gains following the break above 1.1677. I’d really like to see another rally but we’re close to a (downside) break level and with an hourly bearish divergence. Therefore, watch carefully and be aware of this duality I have.

Both USDJPY and USDCHF saw losses and in USDJPY it came as quite a surprise. I had begun to give up the downside for an irregular consolidation but somehow the downside all came together. Having said that, GBPUSD is still ensnarled in a consolidation but this appears to be in a triangle that still needs to complete the final stages.

Therefore, we should see general coming together over today and tomorrow, I suspect.

I note that EURJPY has seen a sharp decline – but one that needs a pullback. Will that be triggered by EURUSD or USDJPY – the latter having a stronger argument. However, that pullback is in the 5-minute market so the overall risk is lower.

As for AUDUSD down under, it has managed to extend losses and we should see further but the risk is a more choppy route…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, November 13, 2017




The week has begun with a mini-bang

At least a minor bang – but a constructive one at least. However, not all pairs have completed their current moves so today will likely see some narrow consolidation at times, yes perhaps some decent moves but with the balance between the pairs that are extending moves versus those that haven’t completed the current development.

Therefore, there is going to be a need for some caution but I’ve provided the general expectation in the report.

I see the need for gains in EURJPY – probably limited – but still one of the two individual pairs will need to provide that push. USDJPY doesn’t really have much room on the upside – but if this reaches into the 113.63-69 area and drops that may work. The alternative is for EURUSD to push into the 1.1677-90 range for losses.

GBPUSD is a probability in terms of structure. I really found the development rather screwed up so I’d suggest taking care in this pair to confirm what should be a bearish outlook.

The Aussie should see losses – but there may be a risk of a triangle in the hourly chart. It’ll be best to take care for a move below 0.7640.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Maybe even stranger things

I’m getting a little warning bell ringing in my ears and I’m not talking about tinnitus. GBPUSD appears to have turned lower. It could just be a pullback but that’s the direction I want to see. EURUSD baulked at the 1.1611 barrier – precisely. USDJPY reached the 113.39 target perfectly and has seen a deep pullback as expected but I’m not convinced. As for USDCHF, my goodness it doesn’t want to budge from its sideways consolidation. I mention these because of the conflicts between the pairs. AUDUSD looks as if it’s going to extend losses.

It’s a rather a strangled mess – or it’s not. This is not a clear picture within this messy development.

There may be an alternative. USDJPY is in a Wave (b) but could see that develop in a triangle – although this will need a break above 114.38. There may be a risk that USDCHF had seen a very shallow pullback. If so, a break above 1.0019 would confirm. EURUSD has been bouncing around and may still see direct losses – although noting the 1.1611 barrier. GBPUSD appears to have found a top for losses to resume. As mentioned above, the Aussie needs to extend losses.

I’m therefore looking at two scenarios now and waiting for breaks.

Something somewhere is causing some even stranger things…

Good trading
Ian Copsey