Monday, October 30, 2017

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR AUDUSD AND EURJPY



TARGET SEEN AT 0.76245


TARGET SEEN AT 131.75


IAN COPSEY





A turn up for the books…

An alarm bell suddenly struck. I was clearly not focussing on the strength of USDCHF from the 0.9421 low but merely following the development. The elevated price was far, far too high to be capable of reversing lower back to 0.9421. I had been adamant that the penultimate leg down to 0.94273 (on the 29th August) could not have completed a 5-wave move. On that day we had a sharp snap decline towards the low. Therefore, I used 25 ticks to form a bar. Towards the low we saw a Wave iii at 0.94351. The Wave iv was a 0.91% retracement. The Wave v was a 3.2% projection. Never in my years in these markets have I ever witnessed such a minute development…

However, this now implies that we are now taken on a very different outlook. Yes, we shall still need a pullback. Not today. Well, maybe later in the day. While I had been looking for a deep pullback, this has all changed. It will be a modest pullback. It has also implied that the adjustments in USDJPY were not warranted. What we are seeing developing now is a Wave (a)/(iii).

So, for the most part – excluding USDCHF, GBPUSD and AUDUSD – we should now see new Dollar highs before a modestly deeper pullback.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, October 27, 2017

Not quite what I expected

Yesterday’s analysis was totally misleading. This was based around EURUSD. When I awoke to see the charts I was dumbfounded. It would seem that we had completed a triangle – although it is probably the most clumpy, non-looking triangle I have ever seen… In some ways, I am glad we did see losses after all. The balance between the pairs would have been intolerable. Maybe GBPUSD can see losses although there is still a potential for a triangle – event at would provide the foundation for a stronger reversal lower.

Thus, we should be looking to sell into the Dollar highs through all the four majors. Actually, this applies to AUDUSD also which is basically expecting the same outcome in USDCHF. Therefore, today appears to be a critical day in general. If there is any pair that may not complete their structures then it’s in EURUSD and possibly GBPUSD.

In addition, EURJPY made a mini-minor-tiny-weeny Wave v that was barely a wave. However, this has found the top and basically it tends to suggest some downside action.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, October 26, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURJPY



IAN COPSEY

Potential Complications

I’m slightly concerned. It’s not that I have any doubts about the long-term but more that we may be heading into “unnecessary” complications. Yesterday saw USDCHF extend gains. That was expected – but then EURUSD pushed up higher and GBPUSD also. I have been aware of the potential in the Pound with a possible triangle in play – although the next triangle target is a tad higher than normal. However, there is still just the risk of a deep pullback. There is also the risk of a break above 1.1819 in EURUSD and that will frustrate because it will then begin to clash with USDCHF – or can both EURUSD and USDCHF see losses together?

Ideally, both EURUSD and GBPUSD should see losses. USDCHF… well… there is a chance of a minor new high – but “minor” is the keyword.

Even USDJPY behaved rather strangely – a high at 114.02, a pullback and what appears to be an expanded flat with an expansion of 47%. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that depth of expansion. However, I’m sure that the rally (the expansion) certainly did not have an impulsive structure. There are strangers in our midst…

Only AUDUSD appears to be “normal” and should see deeper losses over today…

I’d suggest taking care today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, October 25, 2017

A more messy day today

In general, I was quite content with yesterday’s development. We still have the same directional bias as yesterday but without too much oomph today. For several pairs, there are now more swings in the lower degree but still basically in a Dollar bullish outlook. Therefore, don’t attempt to run trends for the moment. Indeed, as we approach a larger reversal point it will tend to generate more noise. Thus, take more short-term trades for now.

Of all, EURUSD should be the pair that can see a modestly decent follow-through although there is a need for early (minor) swings and this may well work in GBPUSD also. These two pairs will likely provide the firmer moves.

Even after the more than decent rally in EURJPY, it will still suffer the same problem of swings but more likely in a staggered move higher. We’ll have to judge through EURUSD and USDJPY to try and navigate the process in the cross.

As for AUDUSD, “walkabout” is probably the most appropriate description. Yesterday’s break of 0.7779 finally confirmed that it wasn’t going to be a single impulsive set of moves but more of a correctional development. This tends to make the process a little more challenging so it may be best to sit out until stronger structures develop.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Tuesday, October 24, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD




IAN COPSEY

Mostly Dollar bullish

I was quite happy with yesterday’s developments. Basically, the four majors and EURJPY all followed my expectations. Hopefully, we should also see all 5 pairs mentioned reverse yesterday’s Dollar losses but we may need a little more consolidation – perhaps some additional swing before this occurs. Indeed, we should see approach new Dollar highs by the end of the day – or maybe a little into tomorrow.

I still have USDCHF being a pain in the backside. Yesterday’s blank data was finally resolved. Something I have not seen since I began with TradeStation back in 1994. I still remain rather cautious for this pair, perhaps there could even be a deeper pullback before the final rally. The MetaTrader data was several pips away from TradeStation and that makes me very dubious of their data… However, that’s just an aside comment.

Take care in EURUSD. I found the latter stages of yesterday’s losses a little ambiguous. The low was expected but not quite as I had reckoned. We’ll need to work with the 1.1724-1.1763 range to see which breaks first. In GBPUSD we have a similar issue. We may have seen the corrective high but it’s rather vague structure that could see a minor new high – but hold below 1.3226.

However, in EURJPY we now need gains – and that’s a little puzzle too. It probably needs both USDJPY and EURUSD to provide gains to reverse yesterday’s losses.

The Aussie is doing what it does best – procrastinating. We need a clear break soon to either see a breakdown lower – or indeed, a stronger rally…

Good trading
Ian Copsey