Friday, September 29, 2017

Swings still in progress

I really thought we’d put the current development to bed yesterday. Not so. It’s a bit like Southern Railways into London. Down tools and go on strike. However, we’re almost there. With the exception of USDJPY and AUDUSD I still feel we need a final Dollar rally. Hmmm... maybe I’ll give GBPUSD the benefit of either making a new low or just a pullback.

Why do I give GBPUSD a choice? Firstly, the structure was absolutely puzzling. Secondly, price broke out from a descending wedge. Even then, I have seen a new low before the reversal. Nevertheless, I do feel it needs losses – as EURUSD too. Equally, that should give USDCHF to rally.

So basically, the day should be mostly Dollar bullish for these pairs.

The exception is USDJPY that is trending downwards for now and still has some way to go. However, there are going to be modestly deep pullbacks on the way so expect a generally choppy decline over today and into next week.

With EURUSD expected to decline and along with USDJPY, I can leave it to you to not even guess what should occur in EURJPY – the final decline I had been looking for.

AUDUSD… Ohhh… The break below 0.7807 was a wake-up call for another scan over the rally. It took some while but I suddenly saw the light. The 0.8124 high was the final high. I can see a pullback higher and then a final low.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, September 28, 2017

OUTLOOK FOR USDCHF

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:                We need a 3-wave rally to reach 0.9775-00

Resistance:     0.9727-29     0.9745-50     0.9769          0.9775-00

Support:          0.9696          0.9675-80     0.9642.52     0.9614

MAIN ANALYSIS:            We now require a 3-wave rally that should move above 0.9773 and hold below 0.9800-07. From there we shall need a 3-wave decline.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any earlier break above 0.9807 would maintain the rally but I'll have to work through a lot of the daily structure...

A break below 0.9678 and 0.9662 (50% & 58.6% retracements) would signal direct losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Limited development today – expect swings

Oh, that was a bad day… It seems I had the pulse of the market just one swing off. I have a feeling that we’re not going to see any strong moves today and more likely a follow-through and reversal. I see this in EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF – perhaps even EURJPY and AUDUSD. That just leaves USDJPY as the odd one out I think.

I’ve been harking on about USDCHF and the impact that I feel it will imply. The mistake I made in this pair was, instead of a deeper pullback, we saw a stronger follow-through and then a deeper than normal Wave iv. Such was the balance within the structure. From here USDCHF needs a 3-wave move. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD need a 5-wave decline.

Once the follow-through has been seen, we should see the first reversal targets. It could be just a limited pullback but sometimes they are pretty aggressive. However, at this point we cannot judge.

EURJPY should require one more drop – probably driven by a combination of EURUSD and USDJPY before a reversal.

…And what about the Aussie? We’re seeing an hourly bullish divergence but no 4-hour divergence. It’s always a coin toss, but given the general expectation I’ve described above for most of the majors, there could still be a new corrective low – but holding above 0.7807.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  






Tuesday, September 26, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDJPY



IAN COPSEY

Some swings today

Once yesterday’s early hiccup sorted itself out we basically saw the Dollar losses – and along with that EURUSD – that triggered the deeper losses I had been expecting in EURJPY. Indeed, the Cross reached my target and a bit below. In fact, I don’t think we have seen the final low yet. But that’s where the headline makes a point.

Broadly, EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF should see a weaker Dollar initially. It’s a modest pullback only so we’re still basically within a larger degree rally in the Dollar. In GBPUSD… well, it was rather a puzzling decline once the early recovery to 1.3570 was seen. From what I feel we have seen, this pair may buck the trend – at least initially. However, it doesn’t really have much room for much deeper – 1.3494. Thus, as long as this caps we should see a new corrective low and then a pullback. Otherwise, I have interpreted the decline incorrectly.

That just leaves the jolly old Aussie that bumbles and hums to make sure it goes nowhere in particular – but it ain’t a crime. However, at some point, the bumble’s sting is going to trigger a stronger rally. Keep an eye out for that.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, September 25, 2017

A cautious start to the week

On Monday mornings I tend to prefer waiting for the market to begin to generate some meaningful development. Today there has been meaningless movement. Clearly the German election results have produced a surprise, a big gap lower in EURUSD, but the market doesn’t appear to know what to do. Of course, I have my outlook but there are some initial teething problems that need to be resolved.

Indeed, we have seen a recovery in USDJPY and a drop in EURUSD, a diffident USDCHF and a recovery in GBPUSD. Talk about a mixed bag…

My analysis is for a bearish EURUSD, bearish USDCHF, bearish USDJPY and a deeper recovery in GBPUSD that really doesn’t appear to make sense – unless it is forming a triangle. It’s hardly an advert for perfect correlation.

Needless to say, there’s a need for caution. Therefore, take note of the extremes that I shall attempt to identify in order that you can get a better grip on the next moves. I suspect, by the European session we could see a stronger grip on where this is going with my preference for a firmer Dollar but I’m wary of significant moves with the exception of EURUSD.

Take care.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, September 22, 2017

Lost in Space…

Obviously, I tend to observe for correlations between the majors. For the most part, it helps judge the general direction. Recently – and in particular the past few days – correlation has been scarce. Yesterday, all four majors made gains. Sure, sometimes it wasn’t exactly correlated but over the day all four pairs maintained a relatively buoyant outcome. That the follow-through lower in EURUSD & GBPUSD did not develop was annoying but as mentioned, the sharpness of the moves following Yellen’s yellin’ was pretty tough to follow even in the tick-bar level.

Basically, in EURUSD and GBPUSD, we saw 5-wave declines. That’s not enough so we need to establish a second decline. Even from that next low, we are likely to see a deep correction. So we’re going to have to contend with broad swings.

Yesterday’s high in USDJPY was a 69% projection – but in “what” is the problem. Frankly, it looks like a 5-wave move so I’m rather cautious. This will imply that we could see a deep pullback and then a second high above yesterday’s high. However, again, the puzzle is in the tick-bar charts and they can be deceptive. As for USDCHF… well, it’s a stubborn mule. It hardly saw much of a range… Ideally, it should make a push to above 0.9773 but keep one eye on the downside – just in case.

The Aussie… How does it manage to mess around so much… It broke below the extreme pullback and is looking at the face of the higher degree extreme pullback. Frankly, this needs to get a move on. Best wait for a break – whether it’s the upside break – or downside…

Finally, EURJPY is steadily and quietly doing its “stuff.” That means a bit lower and then a bit higher…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey