Thursday, August 31, 2017

A need for care today

Overall, yesterday saw Dollar gains as expected. Some stalled at the right area and some have exceeded the targets – generally the firmer Wave v targets. What has perplexed is that EURUSD appears to be a loner. I am seeing USDJPY and USDCHF completing their 5-wave rallies. Both have very strong bearish divergences. So, it should be a bearish day.

GBPUSD has been a bit of a loner and making steady losses as would be expected and there’s a strong chance of further losses to be seen. However, it’s taking its own time to contemplate the world as it goes.

So, it’s EURUSD that is a rather estranged pair. It has broken below its 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. It may well try and retest that but overall the downside still appears to be its favoured outlook. Therefore, it looks like EURJPY may well be a good trade…

What really surprised yesterday was the Aussie. It appears to have formed deeper decline. Thus, best take care.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, August 30, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD





All done and dusted

Yesterday was a tough day – too many difficult structures and some surprising outcomes. However, the good news is that EURUSD has topped out – at last. Even the BBC reported the fact that it hit an 18-month high. When that happens it tends to reverse… USDCHF also hit a new low – but should have been the final low. Therefore, in the larger picture, we have a long way to go on the Dollar upside.

So… now should be focussing on the Dollar upside. USDJPY shot higher rather like a North Korean missile with USDCHF also making gains but not quite so robust as USDJPY. However, what this implies is a 5-wave rally so take care over today because we’re likely to see a reversal lower. In that pullback we shall have to observe carefully to be able to identify the Wave (b) – and who knows how deep a Wave (b) will be. So basically, we’re building up the foundation waves.

In all the furore yesterday, the jolly old Pound was taking its time, taking things step by step. No doubt it will be the same on the way down. It looks like it’ll be a steady move over some time.

EURJPY… well, I think it has topped out but I do have some reservations. Certainly, EURUSD should correct higher fairly early on in the day – but that’s the same in USDJPY so it looks like the Cross is going to be seeing a relatively tight range.

Now that the Aussie has committed to the upside it has to continue but it looks like it’ll take some time.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, August 28, 2017

The start of a difficult outlook for this week

That was a frustrating week… Everything seemed to be pointing to Dollar gains but the Euro was on steroids. However, I’ve discovered the reason. There is some initial risk of gains but it’ll need a pullback pretty early on. The impact on the other majors was to see USDCHF and USDJPY collapse and GBPUSD deepen its pullback higher towards the extreme. USDCHF has probably seen its low – but take care. GBPUSD has barely much upside…

Once this part has settled down I suspect some difficult development as the different pairs suggest an unbalanced outlook. Therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me to see complex corrections develop in in the GBPUSD and USDCHF but USDJPY appears not to have that option. It should really be more directional – but with initial barriers on the upside.

Again, the rush higher in EURUSD clearly saw deeper gains in EURJPY also. I’d like to think that it has found a high but there is the balance between, what should be, a stronger USDJPY versus a weaker EURUSD. How the balance develops is something I cannot judge. This is a development that could be a little tricky.

It seems AUDUSD followed the example of EURUSD and decided to follow it higher. What it has developed is a Wave -i-. No doubt, this should see a pullback lower in Wave -ii-. If so, we could see some pretty static development over the week – but let’s see. There are other options.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, August 25, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR USDCHF


Yesterday's low was at 0.96195...

Repeat: An underlying Dollar bullish outlook

This week has been a bit of a pain in the backside. The market has been plagued with introversion – another way of saying consolidation. I had thought that the market had begun to accept the Dollar will be strong. Very clearly, there are still folk who really, really want the Dollar to rally. It ain’t gonna happen! From the structure in EURUSD, we already know that we have more of the same over the first half of next week. I can see, too, that USDJPY and USDCHF are in stages where there will be swings. Therefore, the general expectation is rather choppy but the underlying direction is still Dollar bullish overall.

In GBPUSD I fell foul of a more complicated follow-through from 1.2916 - hence, the pullback in the middle of yesterday’s European session. I still feel that we shall see losses. All pairs tend to suggest that. What’s more, there is quite a solid follow-through to be seen but will likely develop over a period of time. Most likely we shall see an initial correction higher but keep looking for the downside to continue.

EURJPY also provided a snafu with the new high but this appears to have been after a triangle develops. However, I think that we have seen the high now and therefore we should be looking for losses. How this will develop with an underlying bullish USDJPY and bearish EURUSD is another matter. It could be a rather difficult outlook…

Finally, the Aussie also caught me out. What was looking to be a triangle finally saw a break below recent lows. Interestingly, this is developing in a triple three and once that has been seen it should then see quite a rally…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, August 24, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:                It still looks like we're seeing the triangle Wave ^c for a rally to 0.7932-36

Resistance:      0.7916          0.7932-36     0.7950-62     0.7984-98

Support:           0.7879.82     0.7869          0.7845-50     0.7826

MAIN ANALYSIS:           The Wave ^c held between 0.7879-82. From there we have made upside progress and ideally we should see gains to the 0.7932-36 area to form the Wave ^d. Assuming this caps, we shall require a pullback in 3-waves for the Wave ^e to form the Wave (b). 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Only a break above 0.7936 could imply a potential flat correction or expanded flat. The flat will need a cap around the 0.7962 high while the expansion could reach as high as 0.7984-98 for a recycling lower.

Only a direct break below 0.7869 would break the triangle scenario and allow for losses back to 0.7807.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Today should be Dollar bullish

The market appears under strain. By this, I mean that while there has been a general theme, there has also been a divergence in some pairs. EURUSD maintained a bullish outlook over the day while GBPUSD maintained a bearish outlook – choppy for sure, but the contrast was pretty stark. Having said that, GBPUSD couldn’t have gone higher because of its structure while EURUSD had potential. So now, both pairs should extend losses…

So what of the other two majors? Both USDJPY and USDCHF had only one direction – and Dollar bearish. What I’ve seen of both is that they appear to still need losses. However, USDJPY has been deeper while USDCHF has taken cautious steps. This conflict between EUR-GBP and JPY-CHF needs to be resolved. It should happen. Indeed, USDJPY has limited downside available. Thus, take care but I suspect the next decline will provide them both with a total reversal – or, if I’ve made an error, then breaks of the last swing high.

EURJPY was in a daze over the majority of yesterday - and hardly surprising with the rather choppy sideways move. However, it seems to me that we’re more likely to see losses develop due to the need for EURUSD to extend losses while USDJPY has a more complicated start to the day.

AUDUSD… still on track for the triangle. It may well see the entire triangle complete today – or perhaps early tomorrow. Well, that’s the plan but given this has been a strange old development we should still keep in mind the potential for a flat or expanded flat that could keep the consolidation keep going…

Good trading
Ian Copsey