Friday, July 28, 2017

Still some puzzling conflicts – take care

Following the blood bath following the FOMC I was quite amazed with the normally sluggish USDCHF that led the way back higher to break above the 0.9595 high. Even so, with a lack of bearish divergences it will be prudent to allow a new high in EURUSD rally once again but I sense that it actually needs some downside soon.

Certainly, GBPUSD still needs a follow-through – most likely in a 3-wave move. Once this has finalised the high we can all breathe a sigh of relief and look for the downside to take its turn.

Having said that, the Aussie has got it upside down. Price failed to reach 0.8075 and saw a deep decline. As far as I can see it will still need upside development – now above 0.8075 and more towards the higher side of the range. Even that will still need a pullback and later new high.

Another reason why I feel we have see the high in EURUSD is the fact that EURJPY is beginning to drift lower and should continue to do so. I can’t see USDJPY moving below 108.62 and therefore it will have to be EURUSD that drives the cross lower.

For now, I feel today will be more sedate while the final stages of the complicated mess across the pairs. Take care, it could still be a bit tricky.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, July 27, 2017

FOMC fling…

Phew, I began the analysis around 1 am and was steadfastly attempting to generate a valid development in several of the currency pairs. Tough? As old boots… Then came the cavalry under the name of General Yedlin and there was blood across the streets.

At that point it actually became a little easier. It wasn’t a pretty picture because, from the lows in USDJPY and USDCHF, I had been struggling with the number of combinations that needed to be covered. Thus, because we had seen an obvious sharp move, it was easier to make sense of the development – at least in most pairs. However, the sharpness of the Dollar losses is the now the issue in hand. I am expecting to see this reverse but due to the velocity the structure it doesn’t really have a structure and we’ll need to see some Dollar bullish divergences to provide the base.

One concern is GBPUSD that has approached the 1.31251 high within 0.00003 points… This could be a double top – and I jolly well hope so – but we’re going to need a dollop of caution until this is confirmed. If not, then we’ll be looking at a stronger follow-through. However, I sense it should be the double top outcome.

EURJPY was basically unfazed by all the noise going around and has basically worked out well. Ideally, this should mean that EURUSD has very little more upside because it will need to provide the downside acceleration. Yes, USDJPY may provide some downside but I’m not expecting too much lower…

The Aussie – it was a complicated correction but has now followed through higher and should be looking for the 0.8075 target (area) for a pullback.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Wednesday, July 26, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR USDCHF

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:              While 0.9530-45 caps we should see corrective losses

Resistance:    0.9530-35     0.9545          0.9565-75     0.9600-04

Support:         0.9497-04     0.9479-82     0.9460          0.9438

MAIN ANALYSIS:            The rally was strong and therefore we now know that the 0.9438 low was the final low. As far as I can see we have completed - or may have a minor new high around 0.9535-45 - the rally and thus we should be looking for losses. The first reversal should be around the 0.9510-15 area but should quickly follow-through to the next larger reversal target between 0.9497-04 area. Expect a minor pullback and for losses to edges lower over the day. Observe EURUSD that could provide the final high that would - most likely - see the final corrective low here. The 0.9460 - 80 range looks like a possible target low... but watch for bullish reversal indications. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any earlier break below 0.9438 would surprise but then I'd have to work out what has happened. 

If the 0.9545 level breaks there are still higher projections at 0.9550-67 - but then look for losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Swings

Apologies for the lack of communication yesterday - I had a full 14-hour session working on three reports...

Yesterday saw further Dollar gains – but for others, there is still some development to go. Today should see some solid swings in the 4-majors – rather similar to EURUSD and USDCHF… Perhaps I can add GBPUSD that rallied strongly – but hasn’t completed a full 5-wave move. So, the question is whether it will be a full-blown super whippy day or will it be more sedate? There’s a good chance that the whips may happen today unless the market goes into slow-motion but even then, it’ll end tomorrow.

The Aussie has taken a different route but we’ll let it do what it needs – still bullish but with quite a complicated structure to navigate. The next minimum target is at 0.8075 but could extend a little higher. What we need to observe is the initial correction that appears to be needed. There’s no clear signal yet but – at some point – it should begin to see some solid gains.

That leaves EURJPY that still needs to extend gains, most likely through the rally needed in EURUSD with a more reluctant pullback in USDJPY. Ideally, this should imply that the 130.76 high will not be broken…

Let the games begin…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Friday, July 21, 2017

Mostly Dollar bearish swings

That was an interesting day. I knew there was going to be some difficult development, even conflicting from time to time. Basically, barring GBPUSD, the other 3 majors basically managed to do what I had basically looked for – or at least the general type of development - and this has kept them on the expected outcome. There are still further swings to go. I’m not sure that we’ll manage to squeeze the rest of the job today and more likely it will be early next week.

GBPUSD… There is still something wrong… I’ve been looking at the development from 1.2109 – way back in March and also the development from the 1.2811 low. I’m not particularly comfortable with either of them – but in a structural basis there may be a risk of a 3-wave move higher. Therefore, we'll need to take things carefully given the broad swings expected in the other three.

However, this is a tentative outlook…

EURJPY managed its expanded flat that was followed by a second zigzag. This should imply a reversal but given the basic correlation between EURUSD and USDJPY I suspect this will mean limited losses and more a mini-sideways move…

Finally, the Aussie saw a decent decline. The two scenarios of either a deeper pullback or a deep Wave b/v remains. Keep track of the areas that need to fail…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, July 20, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURJPY

INTRADAY CHART:
BIAS:             I suspect an expanded flat back to 129.74-00 for losses to resume

Resistance:   129.05-10     129.25     129.40-55     129.74-00

Support:        128.48-57     128.23     127.85          127.44

MAIN ANALYSIS:            We didn't see the gains I had expected but instead losses to just below 128.59. As far as I can see, this appears to be an expanded flat that should see gains back to the 129.74 high and just above. Watch for bearish reversal indications for losses to then form a 5-wave decline back below 128.48...

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any earlier break below the 128.48 low would trigger deeper losses...

Only a break above 130.76 would trigger stronger gains.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Potential conflicts

On the whole, yesterday basically tread the path I had expected, perhaps with the exception of a rather static GBPUSD and a bearish EURJPY. The outcome appears to suggest a bullish EURUSD, bearish USDJPY and USDCHF while GBPUSD needs to make up its mind. The problem I am facing in GBPUSD is that if it rallies then it needs to be by around 400 points at least while EURUSD will need only around 200 points and USDCHF lower by just over 150 points…

However, I smell a rat and wonder whether there are some complex corrections that could cause the development to slow down. Indeed, the pullback in USDCHF was pretty shallow – much shallower than I had expected. Therefore, the analysis is going to be pretty defensive but I shall try to attempt to identify break areas that would signal a more directional move.

This tends to suggest a range bound consolidation day – with the exception of AUDUSD that looks like seeing a pullback lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey