Wednesday, May 31, 2017

A little shake-up

Yesterday was a tale of two groups – GBPUSD & EURUSD versus USDCHF & USDJPY. I was quite aware of the balance between the two groups and was plotting a scenario that could bring the two together. USDCHF was the first to bolt out of the pen and make steady gains while USDJPY needed another new low. In GBPUSD and EURUSD things didn’t work quite as planned. The sudden rush higher saw both have the expected downside follow-through reverse higher.

It was annoying but this gambit actually brought the two sets of pairs back into directional correlation. So it appears that we can continue with the bullish structures to break free from the foundation waves. Having said that, while the Europeans do have that outlook, USDJPY still lags by one leg. It should have completed its Wave -b- yesterday but will need to provide a basis for firmer gains. The only risk is that, having seen a double zigzag, there is still potential for a triple three but which must hold above 110.23.

So, there will still be some adjustments to be made but for now, the Dollar upside should be consistent across the 4 majors – although retaining the potential for a marginal new low in USDJPY…

That leaves AUDUSD a little out of the Dollar bullish game. It has made some decent gains but still needs to see further gains.

Finally, EURJPY whipped back higher sooner than I was expecting but I suspect the general lacklustre USDJPY and more energetic EURUSD will basically see a mixed day today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Tuesday, May 30, 2017

A quick start to the new week

Quite obviously yesterday was a general neutral day, lacklustre and a day for sleeping. We’ve already seen some decent moves – quite surprisingly in the early Asian day. However, it’s now slowing down and there is a need to be a little more circumspection until Europe and North America enter the fray. We also have some conflict within the pairs – some pushing more aggressively higher in the Dollar while other pairs are less active. Equally, this has also generated a strange outcome – possibly quite complex in terms of matching the structures. What really surprised me was that USDCHF actually led the way – quite unusually.

Over the past few days, USDJPY has taken to scribbling on the chart. Ideally, it should continue to make gains but we’ll have to take care around the 111.83-94 area which may provide a barrier if we are going to see a triangle. This outcome would annoy but there seem to be too many 3-wave moves developing that could suggest the triangle outlook. Thus take care.

That EURJPY should see losses again also tends to suggest potential support for the USDJPY triangle scenario. What makes this more difficult is the different position in the range of pairs – some requiring modestly deep corrections while others are still developing.  This appears to be a strong argument for the cross to remain bearish – for a while at least.

The Aussie… spider tracks again. Ideally, I’d like to see a rally but there are some doubts. Perhaps it can remain subdued while the EURUSD – GBPUSD Wave (i) outcomes are complete. Probably still best to avoid this pair until there is a more consistent directional development.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Friday, May 26, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:             While we could see a minor new corrective high, the overall outcome should be bearish

Resistance:   1.1226     1.1250          1.1268          1.1294-99

Support:        1.1193     1.1161-68     1.1135-40      1.1114

MAIN ANALYSIS:             Yesterday's recovery was very much corrective - developing in a triple three. From there we have seen a Wave a and Wave b - although there is a risk that the Wave b could deepen but shouldn't be by too much. Overall, without the benefit of a clear structure I'd tend to suggest that the second decline could reach down to the 1.1161-68 (area). This would form a Wave i and will thus require a pullback in Wave ii. Thus, this appears to be the probable outcome today. If it the development begins to accelerate then keep an eye out for breaks of support for losses to resume towards the 1.1114 & 1.1075-80 area...

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   With the correction higher yesterday - clearly a triple three rather than an impulsive structure - we should be looking more for losses.

Only back above 1.1268 would concern - and above 1.1294-99 would be disastrous….

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Pretty much a mixed bag

Mostly I managed to catch the swings but there are a few pairs that, while they went in the right direction, they didn’t follow-through. Perhaps the number one guilty party was USDJPY. I had been looking for a more solid performance but it seems like it’s still floundering in the lower degree area and that’s a nasty area to head into. It just fiddles around without really making any impact. I sense this is going to last for a while – and perhaps it was the right thing because EURUSD was making steady gains that pushed up EURJPY to within 0.009 points of the May 16th 125.807 high…

This tends to suggest that EURUSD will have to carry the burden on any losses to carry the cross lower. Indeed, it actually looks as if the two Continentals and the estranged GBPUSD will likely provide a modest trend today. These two amigos and GBPUSD are in the process of building a base for stronger moves later. Therefore, I can’t see any substantial excitement but more steady trading in these pairs.

Finally, I was expecting the Aussie to push back above 0.7517 – but failed at the final moment. Therefore, it tends to suggest it’s going down to just below 0.7442 and then make its way to a new corrective high. All-in-all, that actually correlates with the Europeans although in different structures.

Probably a steady day in all pairs – with the exception of USDJPY…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, May 25, 2017

Could be a complicated day – but overall a direction will develop…

I have been preoccupied with EURUSD over the past few days. That we had seen the deep losses from the highs was perfect but there was something amiss. USDCHF and USDJPY have been defining bases for the upside and GBPUSD appeared to be wavering within a range. The conflict between a minor new high in EURUSD and the Dollar gains in the other pairs appeared to suggest a conflict. Then I measured the losses from 1.1263 and – hey ho – it was a 5-wave move. Then a little bulb went off in my mind. I had mentioned the triple three from the 1.0340 low but then I recalled that I changed the first 5-wave rally that reached 1.0828. I should not have done. By putting that back to its right position the rally has been reduced to a double zigzag – AND – the final rally from 1.0839 then developed in an impulsive move with alternation intact.

Therefore, we have seen the final high. I’d still suggest leaving stops above the 1.1294 extreme in (cyan) Wave (b) but frankly, with all the other pairs now looking Dollar bullish I think I’ve found my solution…

Within the lower degrees in the other three pairs, there is little room on the Dollar downside and therefore the focus today should be on identifying when the Dollar resumes its rise. Once this has been seen it should cement the rise of the Dollar again. Indeed, I can see this being quite a solid and relatively direct rally towards the targets I have been quoting.

Thus, keep your eyes peeled for the Dollar upside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, May 24, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR GBPUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:                 Still quite balanced here…

Resistance:      1.2975-80     1.2990-95     1.3020-25     1.3047-57

Support:           1.2941          1.2915-22     1.2900          1.2887

MAIN ANALYSIS:             The chart looks like a drunken slur… I suspect we should see a minor new low at least - below 1.2951 and then we'll have to contend with the possible 1.2915 level. This is critical in the final outcome. A break below will confirm the 1.3047 high as the final high and we should see losses down towards the 1.2829-41 area. However, it will likely not be direct and could still see pullback's higher. There's not a strong correlation between EUR and GBP so we have to work individually.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Until then there remains the alternative of a break above 1.3047-57 to suggest follow-through to 1.3086 or 1.3100 for a pullback of around 34 points approx and then a move up to the rough 1.3145-65 area. This should provide the final high for daily losses. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

More of the same

No great surprises yesterday. I’m not expecting much today either. There seems to be, following the rabid attention to selling Dollars, a fear of whispers… “Oi, did you see him try and buy Dollars?” Snigger, snigger… Clearly, we have seen some impressive gains in EURUSD from just before the start of this year and I do admit that I hadn’t expected such a rally. It just wasn’t needed – but that’s how the market cookie crumbles. Frankly, looking at the daily structure there is certainly no impulsive development. Indeed, I think we may well see one more rally in EURUSD before the Dollar resumes its rally that started in May 2014.

USDCHF is touch and go. Until it breaks above 0.9765 there remains a mild risk of a new low. I can’t see it being that deep. USDJPY is already embarking on attempting to forge ahead on the upside. However, it’s unlikely to be particularly forceful and should slump again – but not in an aggressive way. More likely it could drift into a consolidation for a while. This could still see EURJPY edging higher.

The Aussie… Oh, it drifts and looks around without much care in the world. Frankly, I see that still happening but perhaps when the EURUSD bubble bursts perhaps it can get back on the downside…

Good trading
Ian Copsey