Tuesday, January 31, 2017

A mixed bag

Yesterday started pretty well, holding above key Dollar lows but then we had this mixed bag of reactions. Both the Continental Europeans whipped one way and then reversed, GBPUSD settled for a long, cumbersome decline while USDJPY blipped higher from the 114.26 corrective low but then lost enthusiasm. However, apart from USCHF, I can’t say anything has gone awry at this point.

What needs to happen today is a general coming together with like minds – well to an extent at least. There is still a risk with the renegade Swissie while GBPUSD has followed the Southern Rail approach with a “go slow” outlook. These are two pairs that probably need their own structures to develop by themselves but will later catch up.

I suspect USDJPY may well have another slow day, having dropped below the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud – and there is a logic to this as EURJPY still seems to be soft. What could potentially occur for USDJPY is an Inverse Head & Shoulders. Watch out for that.

The Aussie? Probably been drinking too much Fosters if you ask me… Having said that, while it looks like a rather dodgy consolidation, it still has a decent structure that should see losses. Whether it can remain on its feet is another matter. There is a mild risk of a triangle developing – so it’ll be important to observe momentum.

I get the feeling this will be a day of two sections – a sleepy Asia – perhaps early Europe – but then see a firmer move later in the day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, January 30, 2017

A lack of confidence?

Friday had a duality to it. There was chance of follow-through or lack of confidence due to the recent Dollar gains. Clearly the market lacked confidence – but that’s ok. It’s part of the process of price development and the corrective structures by which they need to abide. The key element is recognising the structures and the limitations of the lower degree waves that could make or break the larger degree moves. The problem I have now is that one pair in particular, USDCHF, doesn’t appear to be in tandem with the others – and that’s the first thing to reconcile. Other than that, it seems that most pairs (and that means “not all”) have potential to add another layer of a corrective structure. So the start of the day is critical and needs to clarify the outcome pretty early on in the day. Once that has been done and dusted we can get on with the next larger directional move.

As I suggested on Friday, EURJPY did require another recovery. It has some minor wriggle room as the day/week begins but it has to make up its mind on the next direction. With a “push-me-pull you” start to the day we shall need to understand very clearly where the break levels lie and I’ll put these into the report. I do still feel that the outlook I have should remain intact.

The Aussie has another boomerang day and now certainly has to impose itself to trigger a more consistent directional move. This should be the first thing it needs to early in the day…

Otherwise, the main directional move remains intact and I continue to follow that expectation.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, January 27, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR GBPUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:              While 1.2611-20 caps we should see losses to 1.2425-55

Resistance:    1.2611-20     1.2653          1.2673     1.2694

Support:         1.2587          1.2549-56     1.2522     1.2495-00

MAIN ANALYSIS:             This pair was a bad boy… a BAD, bad boy. The Wave v didn't stall at the 1.2666 target (85.4%) but at 1.2673. However, we then saw a 4-hour Key Reversal bar. As far as I can see we have completed the (cyan) Wave i, Wave ii and Wave a. I suspect we have seen the Wave b at 1.2611 but there is a minor risk of up to 1.2620. Overall, this should lead to losses in (cyan) Wave iii between the 176.4%-198.4% projection at 1.2480-1.2462. With the Wave ii being 41.4% the Wave iv will likely be between 41.4%-50% (70-80 points) and thus the Wave v could reach the 1.2430-55 area. This will form Wave -a- and will require a correction in a Wave -b-.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Only a break above 1.2625 would annoy. Take care. Maybe I have made an error but if it gets back above 1.2673  it would be a shock… I'd remain cautious and will continue to look for bearish reversal indications but if the bearish divergences break down then there may be a risk of further gains to 1.2720-45 and 1.2774.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thar she blows…

Wedges have been broken, channels broken, double top targets reached and in some pairs a reversal through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds. We can breathe more easily now. So, we need to work with this new and hopefully less erratic or confounding complications. I’m just relieved that we don’t have to cope with the Non Farm Payroll tonight.

Of the pairs that have only seen a minor reaction – that’s USDCHF and GBPUSD – we still need to wait for their 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds to break – while EURUSD and USDJPY now have the 4-hour Clouds to push from behind.

As we start the day in Asia, no doubt there will be the habitual consolidation and that seems appropriate in USDJPY that appears to need a consolidation while the Europeans have options both sides of the current range that can make sure that not a lot happens. Once we get into European trading and later North America, we should see further development that should trigger a decent move.

The Aussie has a decent Head and Shoulders and has been attempting to break away from its 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud. In EURJPY there’s a slight chance of two possible outcomes but whatever the outcome it will still be the major directional move I have been expecting.

Overall, the major larger degree targets are well in sights.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, January 26, 2017

All down to Cable now…

True to form, the market has maintained the neurotic development – an almost scatterbrain approach that had traders running one way and then the other. The “secret weapon” has been Cable – GBPUSD in (now) the normal form. While the other pairs have basically hinted that they’ve become bored with the Dollar losses, Cable has been the detractor. My projection for the high was – as normal – conservative and was exceeded but I know where the upside barrier is – that is the extreme of a Wave (v) and the market appears to have gone for the kill. We’ll see.

In general, the market still maintains the wedges and double tops and it will be the breaks of these patterns that will trigger a firmer trend. We just have to clobber the Brits (God Save the Queen… Ma’am…) to get them into shape.

Otherwise, there’s not a lot more to say until the deed is done and I finally get my way…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, January 25, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:      Probably slow at first, but I suspect we'll see losses accelerate later

Resistance:      122.26     122.40-55     122.71          122.94

Support:           121.59     121.35-40     120.90-95     120.50-67

MAIN ANALYSIS:   Yesterday wasn't that nice - deeper gains - but this appears to have been an "overlap" situation again. Thus the 122.26 high was most likely the final high but allow for 122.40-55. I feel the drive for the decline must be EURUSD and I can't see that making a break lower until European trading. Therefore, there is still a need for care in the early stages. At the moment it's USDJPY that's pushing price here lower but I'm not sure it'll be too strong. Thus, take care with the balance between the pairs. Once a break is seen below 121.59 I feel this should see further losses through to the 120.50-67 area - and that for a correction only - probably around 50-75 points - and then for losses to resume. Over time I expect to see the 119.36-63 projection targets.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a break above 122.55-60 would concern and suggest further gains. If it's EUR that's broken above 1.0790 I'd be disappointed. I actually feel USDJPY needs to drive this higher…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

It ain’t over till the fat lady belches…

I found yesterday’s development quite encouraging. At least it provides a basis for the next move but I cannot yet say that we’re out of the woods quite yet. We have rising wedges, and declining wedges, we have double tops and even a drooping double bottom in USDJPY. We have a neurotic GBPUSD that is laced with legal highs. The only thing we don’t have is a confirmed outlook – whether this be bullish or bearish. So, there’s still need for some due care and attention…

What ever happens today, I’m not expecting fireworks – unless the fat lady gets close to a naked flame. The market is most likely not quite ready to give up on the Dollar losses – but because of the possible reversal patterns I’m not sure that it has the enthusiasm to take that step – although perhaps with the exception of GBPUSD that still has to resolve the Brexit issues.

No doubt, we’ll start the day quietly. It’s normally the expectation in Asia so it’s what happens in Europe and possibly the States over the following sessions. I note that the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds are providing Dollar resistance across the 5 Dollar-currency pairs so we need to keep an eye on any breaks.

On the one other pair – EURJPY – it has the luxury in the Asian session to see swings on both sides of current price. Therefore, we’re going to need to watch both EURUSD and USDJPY – also noting break levels.

By the day’s end I feel we may have found a final outcome.

Good trading
Ian Copsey