Friday, October 30, 2015

Patience still required

It was a lacklustre day – and actually no surprise. The 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds provided support for the Dollar and thus kept the Dollar in check. At this point, all is good but we need some stronger development today. The “reversal” we have seen thus far is still very limited and until we see a firmer move through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds there will always be a threat of a new Dollar high.

However, nothing has actually gone wrong and the general correlation in the daily chart that has developed across, not only the 3 Europeans but across AUDUSD and USDJPY does look very convincing. In mentioning correlation, it is not that all the pairs are in the same position within a structure – and in fact few are correlated in that matter – but the general degree of movement and the swings required are pretty much equal.

Perhaps this is just a bit too much for today, with the need to actually have the next break confirmed. To be honest, I don’t think we’re going to see a massive breakout that will confirm a more directional move today. Certainly, the first half of the day looks languid, lacklustre and lethargic but hopefully by the European/North American session we should see some better movement.

That just about sums things up for today, so a fairly short outline…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Thursday, October 29, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDCHF

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: Ideally, I feel we should now see losses

Resistance: 0.9956 0.9970-75 0.9996 1.0020-25
Support: 0.9902 0.9872-87 0.9849 0.9816

MAIN ANALYSIS: The rally continued above 0.9842 and also 0.9917-38 to reach 0.9956. Ideally, I feel this should be the top - although allow for 0.9970-75. What we now need to confirm a reversal is a move down into the 0.9849-87 area. I suspect it could generate a correction. Possibly this could take the whole day - but overall any break below 0.9849 should extend losses towards 0.9795-04...

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break above 0.9956-75 would risk follow-through to the 0.9996 resistance areas. Above, also note the 1.0054 projection… Also, in this process, should the bearish divergences break, it may suggest direct gains so be aware of what momentum is implying...

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
29th October:  I have been trying to work out how things will develop and keep in line with the other Europeans while keeping a valid structure and that tends to suggest that we could be seeing a large irregular triangle in the daily chart.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Thank you FED

At last some moves. I hadn’t known that the Fed was making a rate decision so when I woke up to go through the analysis I saw the sharp move higher in the Dollar. That was the outcome I have been detailing from Monday. Out of all the currency pairs EURUSD was pretty much spot on. For the other majors there were some minor deviations but the Fed made sure that the rest of the bunch also colluded to follow suit to reach the target areas I have been pointing to. These were always going to be approximate – but in the correct areas.

Interestingly, I have noted that the Nikkei 225 appears to be close to the end of a daily Expanded Flat while the U.S. markets are following my expectations. Still, these are going to require confirmations of the next move so there will be some base foundations to be built, but the timing for both Forex and Equities do appear to be combining quite well.

So, having reached targets, I expect an initially slow day today with the market most likely cautious following the sharp gains in the Dollar and it will be yesterday’s Dollar lows that will need to be broken to judge the next move. This also applies to the Aussie – although there may be a need to allow for minor blips before it settles down.

For USDJPY – just a bit annoyed with the mess as the 120.15 low was approached and while I had thought we’d see one more low, the reversal higher was the basic outcome – just a bit too early. However, that didn’t impact on EURJPY that developed pretty much as expected. I am a little concerned about the development and the projection ratios that are being seen/implied. I also note the bullish divergences in both hourly & 4-hour charts. This needs some due care and attention…

Take care today. Let the initial waves develop and then take advantage of the next breakout.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, October 28, 2015

One step forward, two steps back…

My, the market really doesn’t seem to be interested – or have I missed something? Is it Christmas already? I wouldn’t know because I’m not on the “nice” list… Well, I do think we’re getting closer to the end of this current defensive development and hopefully it will soon trigger a more energetic move. Given the time frame I have for the launch of a more substantial trend there’s a risk that the market has almost given up for the year. 2015 will not be remembered for its profits… or perhaps it will because of the lack of solid profits.

So what for today? Potentially the same as yesterday but hopefully we should begin to see a reversal in this week’s “trend” but I’m not even confident that once it has reversed that we will see any uptick in acceleration. So for the third day in a row, the analysis basically remains the same. It’s developing broadly as I have expected – but just very, very slowly.

This slow development of structures has provided its fair share of problems with a noisy and crackly mini-whips and recycling so the targets tend to become a little more difficult to judge so best concern yourself with direction and anticipated reversal areas – but giving margins for errors at the same time.

Remain cautious and take profits early until the turning points arrive…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, October 27, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: While we could still see a push into the 1.1068-1.1110 area, we should be looking for losses overall

Resistance: 1.1068-75 1.1100-18 1.1139 1.1170-75
Support: 1.1017 1.0996 1.0964-77 1.0928

MAIN ANALYSIS: No new low but direct gains that has so far seen 1.0968. However, overall there should be a deeper correction and potentially as deep as 1.1100-10 (approx) before losses can resume down to 1.0928-64 at least. From this point take care. It could provide a low but there are deeper projections at 1.0878-00 and even 1.0857. Thus, from 1.0968 and lower watch for bullish reversal indications. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break above 1.1139 would see direct gains...

Only a break below 1.0808 would suggest the larger daily/weekly decline resuming.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
15th October:  Really… 6 months of consolidation already and likely to continue into early-mid December… Yesterday's gains suggest a potential recycling or - an irregular triangle - and followed by a new high but holding below 1.1712. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Still two-way trading

Yesterday’s development was slow and steady although one or two pairs deviated from my expectations. The adjustments made in today’s analysis bring the deviations back into line but still, the outlook remains a little messy for the first half of the day at least. There appear to be a few hints to support the general theme. Firstly, I don’t think EURUSD has done enough on the upside and therefore suggests some early consolidation/mild gains and this could provide the initial core development over the Asian period. Of note are the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that are supporting the Dollar and could prompt another push higher in the Greenback. However, equally, the larger picture should be pointing to limited follow-through in the daily charts.

In comparison, USDJPY has already resumed its decline but is currently forming the base foundations for another decline. This still has some swings to go until there can be a more definite trending move. I suspect it will recover from yesterday’s losses in a deeper pullback – something that is required for EURJPY to also deepen in a correction. Therefore, the day could be a basically sluggish and two way day across the board.

Even in AUDUSD there is risk of a sideways move initially – but not yet confirmed. It could also just extend losses more directly. At this point it has several options open it but still overall in a correction lower.

Thus, the day should start slowly but hopefully provide the moves required to complete the corrections and followed by a completion of the current Dollar rally…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



Monday, October 26, 2015

Momentum shift

Not everything went quite to plan on Friday, although there has been no break of any impulsive structure but more of an alternative development that occasionally happens. However, if I am right, then this alternative raises the risk of more short-term volatility. This tends to suggest a fairly tight range day – or part of a day – before we can begin to see more movement. Even then, assuming my outlook is correct, once we’re through that stage there will still be risk of some apparent range trading but which should be the base construction for the next move. Therefore, it appears that we’re going to see a relatively slow start to the week – and perhaps potentially the first half of the week, before a more directional move can develop. 

If I am to pick a pair that could see a more directional bias, then it’s GBPUSD. It has satisfied the double top target so is now free agent. There is a chance it could still mimic the range trading outlook, but I tend to feel it has more legs than the others and could see a more directional move. Therefore keep a keen eye on this pair and be prepared to jump on for a ride.

The same can be said of the Aussie. It saw a modestly deep correction higher but whipped back lower again and this should still see further losses. It may not be a single sharp move so be prepared for some ups and downs but I don’t think it has completed its decline yet…

As for USDJPY, it took the alternative route to see stronger gains to approach the 121.63 high. At this point, hourly momentum remains bullish while 4-hour momentum has slowed considerably. This could be a warning sign… That EURJPY managed only a mild move higher and then extended losses was not a complete surprise, we have an hourly bullish divergence but 4-hour momentum appears to still possess bearish intentions. Keep a keen eye on this one…

Best pairs to provide a more sustainable move – even if not robust – are GBPUSD and EURJPY – possibly AUDUSD.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey