Friday, July 31, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: We should see 1.0944-50 cap for losses to 1.0867-79 and later to the estimated 1.0825-50 area

Resistance: 1.0944-50 1.0966 1.0984 1.1005-10
Support: 1.0905-10 1.0893 1.0867-79 1.0825-50

MAIN ANALYSIS: The initial decline stalled way above the 1.0901 area but as suggested, the correction was relatively shallow and it seems we are seeing a relatively direct decline (although the internal development does contain some deepish corrections.) Thus, as the day starts we should see the 1.0944-50 area cap for losses below 1.0893 and to the 1.0867-79 area for a minor correction (10-15 points) and for losses to reach the 1.0825-50 area. This should provoke a correction - but again, I doubt it will be too deep - maybe to around 40-60 points approx - before losses continue. This should then challenge the 1.0808 low and then down to the 1.0769-84 area at least and probably 1.0723-45.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only directly above 1.0950-66 would frustrate and suggest gains back towards the 1.0984-1.1010 area at least. Take care here. Any higher and we'd be expecting 1.1029-55 but I'd have to make a total review.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
28th July:  We are seeing a very deep correction - it seems to around 1.1139. This should trigger a reversal lower and thus watch for bearish reversal indications for losses back to 1.0808 and to 1.0718-23 minimum - and probably below...

Only above 1.1150 would see gains but I'd then have to review...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Good progress

It was mainly a pretty good day yesterday. Not all the pairs are in impulsive fractals, but those that are, appear to be in different parts of the fractals. There are even pairs in normally correlated development but in which one pair is in an impulsive wave while the other is in a corrective wave. So there’s quite a mishmash of development at the moment that requires some delicate managing to ensure that projection targets and corrective targets tend to match. Of course, there are times when they just don’t match.

Oh gee, I have a headache. I need a holiday…

Overall, I’m satisfied with the way things went and the outlook does seem to suggest more of the same today… overall. I do see some potential for one or two pairs to see negative correlation before too long but of course, if sideways consolidations develop there could be a period of adjustment. There are also two currency pairs that could recycle - although the degree of the respective moves is very different.

So, as we go into the weekend, it’s going to be important to be aware of the relative development between the pairs. That could suggest the cross rates could provide some decent moves.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Thursday, July 30, 2015

Prodding the pips

For much of yesterday we did see some deathly dull consolidation – which did not surprise. I’m not sure (or care) what happened but clearly some fundamental event has taken the development a step forward. Until that point there were some uncertainties about the foundation waves under development. The “event” appears to have resolved that and should now clear the way for the next move. I’d love to say that the move could accelerate at a faster pace but that hasn’t been the pattern of late. If this does occur - then great. Otherwise we could see the steady development that has been the daily ritual for some while.

The Europeans are looking correlated for the moment. All seem to be under the bewitching influence of the bullish Dollar. However, I do expect GBPUSD to veer away from the Continentals at some point once again. There could even be some consolidation in the Pound as well. I have held targets for GBPUSD for some while but the development has been so frustratingly slow that it’s taking forever.

The Aussie’s recovery was limited but has developed in a manner that it could move sideways. I doubt we’ll make a new high and therefore there should be losses but it’s the depth of those losses which needs careful attention to determine whether there is a stronger follow-through. Therefore, take care and note momentum conditions.

As for the JPY pairs – a disappointment with EURJPY that broke below key support while USDJPY managed to stage another rally. It tends to suggest that the upside is probably limited in USDJPY with the Cross likely to continue its decline. Therefore, take care with USDJPY.

It should be a steady day although the customary Asian session will provide a dull beginning.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, July 29, 2015

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDCHF

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS: We should see a move down to the 0.9546 - 76 area before the rally resumes

Resistance: 0.9635 0.9673 0.9708 0.9740-45
Support: 0.9602-13 0.9570-75 0.9546 0.9524-29

MAIN ANALYSIS: The rally was seen to 0.9665 - and actually 0.9673. This produced an hourly bearish divergence and could - potentially - develop a head & shoulders. I'm not too happy with the additional 8 points but I've noted some mildly wayward ratios. What's more, it does tend to match with the outlook in EURUSD. Thus, we should see losses down to the 0.9570-75 area minimum. Allow for 0.9540-46. This pullback should support for gains to resume and back above 0.9673 and to between 0.9708-45 - max 0.9766.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 0.9524-40 would suggest losses to around 0.9505 and potentially lower.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
29th July:  Upward progress is being made and while 0.9550-75 supports we should see gains break above yesterday's 0.9673 high and up to 0.9708 minimum but with a wide target range between 0.9708-66.

Below 0.9524-40 would break the bullish sequence and risk losses below 0.9505 and potentially lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Deadly dull Dollar

I found yesterday a strange day. There were no two halves, but a steady singular directional move in most of the currency pairs. That we didn’t see a minor new high in EURUSD was a real disappointment although the 1.1129 was smack in the middle of the expected target area. Thus, it spent the day drifting lower along with USDCHF edging higher and GBPUSD doing it’s own thing, confirming its strength. From what I can see, we should see the opposite today - in the Continentals at least – and see GBPUSD correlate with EURUSD – but only for a while.

The Aussie also declined the opportunity to extend its losses. There’s risk of consolidation now – potentially short term and perhaps even longer. Much will depend on the structure of this initial recovery. However, it’s pretty obvious that compared to the free flowing losses of the past year, it does seem to have run out of steam to a certain extent. This is down to major targets being met from 3 years ago and is demanding a slower development and the likelihood of more corrective behaviour that needs to develop. Right now we do need a minor lift before there can be any further losses.

In the JPY pairs we have seen upward progress in USDJPY. It’s in a position, at this point in time, where it can move either way. However, the upside has less room for manoeuvre while the downside has a bit more spaciousness. Key to this pair, is understanding where it breaks lower – or decides to extend yesterday’s gains. One clue is in EURJPY that does need to move to a new high that could be driven by either EURUSD or USDJPY. Finding the balance here is crucial.

No home runs today. Keep things tight and steady. The rest of the week should provide a more directional move.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, July 28, 2015

WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
28th July:


The triangle was a tricky one and appears to have ended at 0.7417. We are now close to the Wave (a) which should stall around the 0.7245 area. I suspect a correction higher in Wave (b) of around 66.7%-76.4% between which would suggest an approximate 0.7360-76 area. Basically watch for bearish reversal indications for losses to the minimum 50% projection at 0.7218 but could get as low as the 0.7183 area. Equally, as this decline develops watch for bullis reversal indications noting a daily bullish divergence currently developing and match this with the 4-hour & hourly charts.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A day of two halves?

It wasn’t a day for swingers after all, although the way price developed did produce rather strange excesses from time to time. Indeed, I feel this process is going to continue for the first half of today and considering that we’re going into the Asian session, there’s every reason to consider the idea of consolidation. However, once this current process is complete we should find a stronger directional move should be the result. Even then, from the balance between USDCHF and EURUSD there is a hint of a period of almost sideways trading – that is to say that there should be some minor breaches and reversals over the early period.

GBPUSD made some steady gains. I still haven’t made up my mind whether it’s going to rally directly or following a deeper correction again. It has both choices so it’ll be important to recognise the levels that would point it in a particular direction. Best remain a little cautious until this is clarified.

The Aussie also did relatively well, retracing higher as expected. However, the main risk does remain lower and at some point we should see new lows. I am undecided over the larger structure but currently I am watching the bearish development and will look for this to develop first…

As mentioned in the weekly video outlook, USDJPY broke free from the consolidation quite early in the day and has seen losses to the next price target. This should see a period of corrective behaviour. However, note that EURJPY is getting stretched on the upside. Therefore watch the relative balance between EURUSD and USDJPY and see what the implications of breaks in the individual pairs.

In summary, the first half of the day looks a bit whippy but I suspect some movement towards the end of the day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Monday, July 27, 2015

Summer has come early

August has traditionally been the month where the market seems to die a death with traders mumbling about the Summer Doldrums. It almost seems as if the market has been that way for 3 months already… and it seems like the market has succumbed to seeing this extend even further. Personally I don’t think it’s going to be the same this year, but right now there’s a good chance that we could still remain in that range for now.

That said the current losses in the Dollar were basically expected although I haven’t caught the levels too well. There is still more to go and I suspect from the balance of required developments across all currency pairs that we’ve still got a way to go to complete this segment of the larger structure. There does seem to be a modestly clear picture within both EURUSD and USDCHF of continued swings over the coming days.

GBPUSD has been complicated and defeated me over the past week or so – but I think I’ve resolved this. It needs confirmation and with the market we are seeing, it may take a day or two more but should resolve the current consolidation. On the other side of the world, AUDUSD has made its break and this should continue overall but only in steps rather than the leaps that it took over the past year. Today is likely to be a slow day I think.

Over in the humid and sweaty JPY lands, USDJPY seems a bit reluctant to extend losses. It’s a little touch and go, but I feel it could move sideways today. This is down to EURJPY that appears to want to make further gains but probably more driven by EURUSD and therefore the suggestion is for further consolidation in USDJPY - best watch the range carefully and adjust if there is any sign of a break of range…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey