Friday, February 28, 2014

Heads appearing over the parapet?

I can’t say that the Europeans went exactly to plan but the final low GBPUSD was perfect, in EURUSD just a bit higher than expected and in USDCHF… well, I hadn’t really expected a new high. The outcome for these three is a bit mixed in terms of individual structures so there are still some hurdles to overcome at best. At worst … well, we haven’t yet had any definite confirmation of Dollar losses. What’s more, it’s Friday and you have to consider the potential for the market to not push the boundaries. The worst outcome would be for a break above yesterday’s Dollar highs…

Otherwise, I think we’re back on track but it would be nice to see some confirmation. This is probably the task for today and we’ll have to watch the key levels and respective development, particularly in USDCHF that appears to be one step ahead of the other two. It tends to risk the possibility of some numbing consolidation at some point in USDCHF to allow the other two to play catch up.

AUDUSD failed to get much lower but overall is quite within the appropriate structure. Perhaps there’s some risk of consolidation but otherwise the structure is pretty solid now.

Yesterday’s slap in the face… (mine that is…) was from the JPY pairs. Both broke support levels and dived lower. Now, that was not mean to happen and took some time to resolve. USDJPY was a little more straight-forward to figure out a likely solution but EURJPY was a mess and a half. Keeping in mind my basic view, I did finally notice a structure that would explain things. It’s one of those that could just be “forcing” a structure so I remain with some misgivings. What will be required is to have a stronger confirmation of my approach. A break below yesterday’s lows in both pairs would be hard to take…

Given we’re still (potentially) only in the foundation stages of new moves I’d suggest holding back from raising position sizes until there are move confirmations.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Thursday, February 27, 2014

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURJPY

BIAS: We should see gains back to 141.03-26 for a final correction lower

Resistance: 140.28 140.75 141.03-26 141.70
Support: 139.65 139.19 138.67 138.26

MAIN ANALYSIS: Losses overran by 5 points below the 139.70-85 target area. This seems in line with the irregular triangle scenario. Thus, we should now see gains to the 141.03 area at least. We should allow for the 141.26 high if this develops as an ascending triangle. Thus, take care and look for a final reversal from this area into which we should be looking for bullish reversal indications - or a break above 141.26... this should (eventually) imply gains to the 141.70-124.25 area (allow for 142.58) for a correction.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 139.65 which would risk losses back down to 139.19 and potentially 138.67 and 138.26. However, clearly I'd want to see either EURUSD or USDJPY point to a break lower too.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
26th February:  I am treating this set back as a possible irregular triangle - this cross having a greater propensity to cause trouble. This would have the 139.70-85 area support but then maintain the consolidation below 141.07-26. If this develops then the higher projection at 141.70 is possible en route 142.85-16...

A break below 139.60-70 would risk slippage to 139.19 and possibly 138.26...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Still some minor hurdles to overcome

Complications? Oh dang, yeah… That’s one way of describing it. The other way I can’t put down in suitable words that I can use on this page. If nothing else the break levels worked quite well and seem to be playing out the alternatives. Even then the sharp follow-through higher in the Dollar has provided its own complications but ones that we should be able to stay clear of as long as the structure is understood. The underlying Dollar bearish analysis remains intact but is really being stretched on each wave to test the limits.

So the challenge today is to navigate the nearby extremes and to work through the final stages … or at least what I feel are the final stages… before the stronger directional waves can begin to impose their rights. The larger Dollar downside targets remain pretty much intact so it’s more about confirming the reversal lower.

The Aussie’s early losses turned into a slightly deeper correction than I had hoped but has eventually turned itself around to head lower. We should see more losses today but not quite with the same robustness. We should see some subsequent corrective behaviour and that will be the next hurdle to overcome.

USDJPY didn’t surprise with its early failure to break above 102.40 but ended the day higher following a correction. This still has a little way to go and seems to require the given the target I had in EURJPY was overstepped only by a few points. This remains in a consolidation and should do so for today at least but does have a clear range of resistance. This should be observed when considering USDJPY at the very least. Of course the expectations in EURUSD cannot be ignored but looks like having less influence in the early part of the day.

Overall the first half of the day looks to have the greatest uncertainty but should end up with some tentative directional movement…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Complications

Just as I thought we’d get a break the market seems to have suffered an anxiety attack. It hasn’t really changed the underlying outlook but has definitely complicated it. Right now some deep breathing exercises and regression techniques to consult the inner child may well be useful… The result has been to generate yet another fine line between bullish & bearish again but if the structures I am following break down it will likely exacerbate the complications.

Having said that, I do see one scenario that would resolve the situation pretty quickly. Rather than anticipate this, given the market’s penchant for freezing in its tracks, I’d rather maintain a low profile until there is a resolution. I like the preferred scenario as it tends to work well across the Europeans. It would be an interesting move and potentially one that would provoke a relatively solid follow-through and equally brief also. (By brief I refer to a daily outlook.)

Thus, it would be best to take a softly, softly, catch a monkey approach today…

The Aussie also seems poised, not necessarily in the same direction as EURUSD, but is now pushing the limits between bullish & bearish. There are some fairly good break levels that should provide some firm follow-through so watch out for those…

USDJPY… dang and darn… I failed to think of a possible alternative… I still feel the same final outcome is more likely but here too there’s little room between the bullish/bearish lines. That EURJPY has broken down requires and alternative approach. I can see a solution but it’s a messy one and best allowed to play through to confirm the outcome. Thus, the JPY pairs also need a little due care and attention today also but like the Europeans I do think the next larger move is not that far away…

Patience is key today. That and understanding where the structures break or are confirmed…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, February 25, 2014

WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR SILVER

INTRADAY CHART
25th February:
It looks like Wave iv developed as an ascending triangle ending at 21.51. We have seen Wave a and possibly Wave b also (though allow for minor slippage) and thus we have just Wave c of Wave v to go. This should reach between the 38.2% - 50% projection in Wave v between 22.65 - 23.00. 


From there look for losses back to the Wave b of Wave v initially and then lower to the triangle low and below. This should be a Wave [ii] correction and while the depth is not known at this point do keep an eye on the consolidation area marked.

RATIO TABLE:
Good trading
Ian Copsey 



One tiptoe closer

A mixture of outcomes yesterday… Some were almost on target and some not. What was apparent is that the Dollar was a lot less reluctant to move lower than I had expected at this stage. Thus it seems as if we’ve not only tiptoed one step closer to resolution we’re probably just a trip over the doorstep away. Therefore we should see the customary consolidation/correction in the Asian session awaiting Europe to provide the breakout.

In the Europeans the pattern that has emerged is the apparent relative strength of moves. USDCHF has been extremely laggard in pushing itself forward as the directional leader and I see that continuing. Don’t expect the world from this one. After it shot out of the gate from 1.6251 GBPUSD looks like being less aggressive on this next rally due to the upside target. Meanwhile, EURUSD appears to have the greatest expectation for a more robust follow-through.

In the middle of yesterday’s video outlook I provided some impromptu analysis to mention the risk that we’d not see AUDUSD move directly lower, as it threatened the 0.8936 low, but return back to deeper corrective highs… Well, that worked out quite well. Now we should see the move I have been suggesting develop.

USDJPY didn’t manage a new high. It was one of those touch and go situations having done enough on the upside and therefore the break of support hastened the correction lower. The correction over, it does have the potential to resume the uptrend. However, do take care as there is also a structure that could imply extended sideways consolidation. That needs some due care and attention.

However, with the prospect of EURUSD rallying we do have a much stronger potential for EURJPY to resume its rally. I don’t think it’s going to fly away at this point (and tends to highlight the potential consolidation in USDJPY) but overall the underlying influence does seem bullish.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Monday, February 24, 2014

Resolution expected soon

Friday was a day when I really didn’t have too many expectations. There were ambiguities floating around, too many blind spots that could have been interpreted (at that stage) in two ways. Therefore, if I had anything on my mind to achieve on Friday it was to identify when one of the options broke down and narrowed the options down to one. I think that’s happened. We probably have another day (or two) for the structure to play through and extinguish its duties to completion but once that’s done and dusted I think we’ll begin to see a stronger move develop.

The above applies to the Europeans specifically and to a mild extent in AUDUSD also. Therefore, over today and potentially tomorrow the best bet is to dabble in a limited manner only and watch out for the final confirmation. The Europeans in general have the least likely outlook of significant moves, the Aussie is poised and can make its move at any time.

I suggested on Friday that the JPY pairs had the more straight-forward outlook, particularly in USDJPY that performed almost point perfect. I had less expectations of EURJPY and this proved correct. I don’t think we’ll get too much excitement today either. Indeed the outlook does like a two-way market today but it’s after today that we can probably expect a stronger directional move to develop. To be honest, USDJPY may well see the same fate today.

Thus, don’t expect the earth, moon and sun today… Be satisfied with a stroll down the street…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey