Monday, December 23, 2013

European range trading – JPY pair gains?

THIS WILL BE MY LAST UPDATE OF THE YEAR. UPDATES WILL RESUME ON 2nd JANUARY

Basically things went right on Friday, not entirely to plan but that’s the nature of a wafer thin market and lack of interest in opening risk at this time of year. The slightly deeper corrections I would normally expect in EURUSD and USCHF did not develop but instead a more direct attack on the eventual targets. The sharp reversal from 1.3625 EURUSD and 0.9000 USDCHF were good enough.

From this point I need to talk more about the general expectations until the beginning of the New Year. Broadly the Europeans aren’t going anywhere, anytime fast. I get the impression that one way or another we’re going to see a dull and somnambulistic market. Not that it’ll stay in a straight line sideways but probably more likely period of total boredom punctuated by blips in one direction and then the other. Out of the three Europeans it’s GBPUSD that has greater potential to provide new extremes, so watch that one. EURUSD and USDCHF have some pretty reliable extremes to watch for.

AUDUSD is a little weird… I think it could still see some short term whips one way and back but I don’t see a huge downside risk directly… unless, of course, my support breaks. Otherwise the preference will be to develop somewhat correlated with the Europeans. It’s probably not the nest vehicle over the holiday period.

Maybe the better pairs to look for are the JPY pairs but even then I don’t think we’re going to get rampant follow-through in either direction. More, USDJPY in particular, looks like generating a swinging move both up and down. That leaves EURJPY a little vulnerable to short term consolidation but I feel it will be dragged higher by the collar. However, much like USDJPY there is a risk of broad swings.

Do take care in these thin market conditions.

Have a particularly enjoyable Christmas and an absolutely, totally spiffing New Year

Ian Copsey  


Friday, December 20, 2013

TECHNICAL INDICATIONS FROM 19th DECEMBER 2013

As usual here are a few more observations from yesterday's developments. The charts display the day's support and resistance from the daily report issued around 2am-3am GMT and last for the rest of the day.

Comments provide examples of integrating technical indicators and the implications. There are general indications of short term Dollar strength but within the context of the time of year when liquidity is very low the risk is for seeing sustained periods of consolidation within a larger consolidation.

These indicators and daily support and resistance are available free of charge on the fast and responsive WorldWideMarkets MT4 platform. Contact me for more details or sign up here. (Offer applies to non-U.S. residents.)


USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
EURJPY
AUDUSD
Good trading
Ian Copsey


DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

BIAS: Feel we should expect a complicated and long correction from around 1.3649

Resistance: 1.3670 1.3690 1.3715-25 1.3755-65
Support: 1.3649 1.3633 1.3619 1.3597

MAIN ANALYSIS: The decline finally stalled at 1.3649 and we're seeing the long consolidation expected. There are two options for this:
- a direct move back higher to 1.3710-25
- a dip to 1.3633-39 and then a recycling back higher to 1.3710-25

Once the 1.3710-25 area has been reached we should then see losses to 1.3619-25 minimum and potentially 1.3597. This should support for a rally that could reach 1.3810 again.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only back above 1.3730-50 would frustrate and suggest further sideways consolidation. 

Below 1.3590 is the 1.3524-53 support area.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
20th December:  Yesterday's developments seem to work really well across the Europeans and point to a long sideways consolidation. Here this should see support around 1.3597-20 and trigger gains back higher.

Only below 1.3520 would see further slippage lower...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Range trading – then follow-through

After the initial hiatus subsided we saw a more leisurely, almost pedestrian tempo take over. It was hardly a surprise and actually expected. A sharp reversal, just as we witnessed after the Fed had provided their Xmas greetings, that has minimal corrections at the outset are bound to generate a long period of consolidation. The trick in these circumstances is identifying the right mini-wriggle (that classic Elliotticians will ignore) in order to identify the likely projection targets. This part is always a hazardous affair, particularly when having to make the decision while the market flak is raging around one’s head. I was close, within 10 points, and once that target was in the consolidation began and it isn’t yet complete.

While having to analyse in yesterday’s conditions is never a pleasant or relaxed process, I am quite satisfied with the outcome. This past week since EURUSD peaked has been less than easy. Indeed, it has been frustrating with the declining liquidity making for tough recognition of waves due to the noise. I haven’t been satisfied with my analysis. The Fed has provided much greater clarity to bring a lot of inconsistencies much closer together and for a stronger outline for the coming 1-2 weeks. That outcome is further consolidation but on a larger scale than the one that started yesterday and should end today. What’s more, the limits of the consolidation are, for the most part, pretty clear.

As for today, as mentioned above the current consolidation is not yet complete and could still take some while. It does depend on whether the market has any interest in doing very much with only 2 real days of trading before Christmas. (Christmas Eve is always a non-event.) However, I feel that we shall see follow-through probably by the end of today but there won’t be much momentum driving it. If there is any prospect of a better follow-through perhaps it’s in USDJPY but even that has a pretty well defined target before a correction sets in once again.

Take it easy. Note the limits of the consolidation, EURUSD probably the more defined one and then the Dollar resistance levels that should cap through to the New Year.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Thursday, December 19, 2013

Back to square one

As I was writing these comments having completed the analysis yesterday I had the impression that there need be some stronger impact, a catalyst that would force some unusual behaviour. At that time I hadn’t known about the Fed’s comments due to be published. These factors are never on my agenda and I never really take any notice of upcoming economic data or central bank comments unless someone draws my attention to them. Well, we saw that catalyst… Not that it generated the specific outcome that developed, but overall it provided a needle in the market’s backside to cause it to whip one way and then the other to break both ends of the past 10 days range in less than two hours.

Of course, this was the time I was attempting to go through the analysis… Needless to say it was like sitting at one end of the net at Wimbledon and trying to keep track of the ball… The end result? Well, with the exception of GBPUSD, we’re back to where I thought we’d be going but following a major detour…

While the process was none too pleasant to go through (including the to and fro during the analysis…) it does seem to point to roughly the same target areas in EURUSD and USDCHF and thankfully… at last… the JPY pairs making solid upside headway. The only issue that remains is now that the madness is over, to be replaced by the type of development seen prior to the Fed’s comments, there’s a stronger chance of a return to more restrictive trading with elevated short term noise.

A word on GBPUSD… I wasn’t ready for the new high but does seem destined for the original target I had expected when we reached 1.6465… Having said that I think we need to take this step by step as the balance between it and the Continental Europeans does suggest an alternative higher target once the current decline is complete.

Today, do remember the market’s propensity for either reluctant and defensive development or more rapid directional moves, both of which are the general outcomes at this time of the year… Play it safe…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  



Wednesday, December 18, 2013

証券投資セミナーのお知らせ HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

'HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE' by Ian Copsey 
講師:イアン・コプシー(通訳あり)
会場:事務局セミナー室(兜町平和ビル4階)
日付:2014年1月23日(木)
時間:18:30 – 20:00
参加費:NTAA会員 無料、非会員 3,000円
お申し込み先:office@ntaa.or.jp または 03-5847-2232(FAX)

日本テクニカルアナリスト協会
103−0026
東京都中央区日本橋兜町3−3
兜町平和ビル4


20107月、Harmonic Elliott Waveの考案者であるイアン・コプシーは、ダウ平均株価が12,600 +/- 200ポイントまで上昇した後20%の下落をたどり、その後再び上昇し14,000を超えると予測し、これをLinkedIn上で公表した。
20123月には、ドル・円相場が1ドル=101-102近辺まで上昇すると予測した。
これら2つの例を見ただけでも、エリオット波動理論における衝撃波動構造に簡単な調整を加えることで、Harmonic Elliott Waveが正確にあらゆる波動等級を推測できることが分かる。
Harmonic Elliott Waveは、完全なるフラクタル構造であり、かつ極めて論理的であるとともに、エリオット波動理論に登場する拡張波、第5波のフェイラー(未達成)、ダイアゴナル・トライアングル(斜行三角形)の概念を排除した波動理論である。この理論を使えば、高度な正確性でピンポイント予測ができると言える。
今回の講演でイアン・コプシーは、複数の波動等級に共通するターゲットを認識する比率を説明するとともに、衝撃波動構造の修正についても言及する。さらに、波動を認識する際の交互性の重要性およびその波動認識方法を論理的に解説する。