Friday, November 29, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

BIAS: Look for 1.3645 to cap for a correction to 1.3550-60 before higher again

Resistance: 1.3627 1.3645 1.3666 1.3684
Support: 1.3572-87 1.3558 1.3520-25 1.3490-00

MAIN ANALYSIS: While the 1.3602 target was broken it stalled at the next projection target at 1.3612 (that I hadn't expected) but did then reach back to the 1.3549-55 area as expected. From that corrective low at 1.3558 we have seen a rally back above 1.3612 to 1.3618. We should now see the 1.3572-78 area support for gains to reach 1.3626 but feel that the 1.3645 target may well be more likely. This should cap and provoke yet another correction to the 1.3550-60 area. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 1.3540 and 1.3520-25 would break the current bullish sequence and risk losses back through 1.3490-00 and 1.3460-65 to the 1.3444 support. 

A break above 1.3650 would imply a test of 1.3684. Take care there. 

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
29th November:  The rally has developed well and we should continue to see the broad 1.3540-60 area support (after seeing 1.3645) for gains to the next higher target at 1.3684. 

Only below 1.3450 would risk losses to 1.3520-25 and later down through 1.3490-00 and 1.3460-65 to the 1.3444 support. This could also eventually lead to a retest of 1.3399.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Slow motion replay

I mentioned on Monday in the weekly video outlook that, particularly in EURUSD, the market looks like developing in slow motion and so it has come to pass. The end of the week should be no different. EURUSD has developed almost perfectly so I have much higher confidence in the outlook. USDCHF has developed broadly in line with expectations but has been a little more choppy than expected when I had thought there was a chance of shallower corrections. On the other hand, the other currency pair I had tipped for a decent move was GBPUSD. This one has performed a little more strongly than I had thought. However, all three are developing well, quite in line with the structures that should be seen. There are still some Dollar losses to come but then another correction due.

The Aussie saw losses into the downside target zone but I’m not convinced that it has been in the right structure. From this point I think we should be aware of a move back higher but whether it’ll be a deep correction or see deeper gains is something of which to be aware. The other problem is that there doesn’t seem to be much downside room so there is risk of some potential choppy behaviour.

On to the JPY pairs and the bigger story was the break above 138.24 and the approach to the daily swing high at 139.21. This stronger showing does appear pretty bullish. I’m not a great Dollar bull in USDJPY at this moment although the upside does still have some room left to test. Thus, I feel we could have a two-way day today. In the cross there does still seem some leeway on the upside still but it looks more that it will require both EURUSD and USDJPY to contribute their share of the burden. Equally, with both EURUSD and USDJPY having limited upside at this point the same will be true of the correction in the cross that should be relatively deep.

Maintain the same approach as we go into the weekend – take advantage of the dips until Dollar bearish targets have been met.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  


Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Expect further sluggish development

Oh, it’s painful. It’s like the market has resorted to using a Zimmer frame… It’s sure making the process of identifying the structure really tough because of the excessive noise that’s being generated by all that shuffling. The larger wave degree is fine. It’s just the lower degrees in the 5-minute charts where I perform my basic analysis which is doing my nut in. That’s the bad news. The even worse news is that it looks like continuing and given tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the States the prospect of any firmer progression does seem limited. It’ll need a catalyst to shake up the market but in EURUSD I just can’t see that happening due to a limiting upside. Where the greater risk could be is in USDCHF and GBPUSD as I described in Monday’s weekly video outlook. Indeed, these two probably hold the greater chance of any decent move today but don’t expect the world…

AUDUSD has whipped me two days in a row, continuing to register minor new lows. I am fearful that it may well happen again today. It definitely requires a correction higher and a modestly deep one but with the higher degree providing limited downside for now it does risk a choppy day.

The JPY pairs spent the day doing very little. In particular EURJPY had a 50-point range which demonstrates the basic correlation between USDJPY and EURUSD. I remain rather cautious about USDJPY. I would like to see it rally just a little more but with EURUSD rising while EURJPY appears (at least in the count I’ve been holding for several weeks) to have very little upside potential. We therefore have a rather fragile status quo right now both in terms of the very short term and also the medium term that requires delicate handling. As suggested yesterday I feel it is better to sit out of these two pairs until a more definitive movement is seen.

Take care again today. It does look like it will be a repeat of yesterday and that’s a bit concerning as it could also imply that it will extend over tomorrow as well.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone in the States…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURUSD

BIAS: While 1.3482-90 supports we should now see gains to 1.3626-45 initially

Resistance: 1.3528 1.3559 1.3578 1.3600-10
Support: 1.3482-90 1.3460-65 1.3444 1.3415-20

MAIN ANALYSIS: Price stalled only 3 points above 1.3556 and from there we have seen the expected correction to 2 points above the lower end of the 1.3487-1.3510 support range. Do still keep in mind the 1.3460-65 support though I doubt we'll see this. Thus, we should see gains back above 1.3528 to retest 1.3559 and then follow-through to the 1.3626 projection (allow for 1.3645 - although I feel the 1.3626 projection is most likely.) This should generate a correction back to the 1.3540-50 area from where the next rally should move back to 1.3626-45. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 1.3460 would concern while below 1.3445 would risk follow-through back to the 1.3399 low and then note the 1.3355-79 retracement supports. The lower must break to suggest any retest of the 1.3295 low. 

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
26th November:  The bullish view is developing well and has temporary barriers at 1.3626-45 and later to the 1.3684 target.

Only below 1.3444-60 would risk losses back to 1.3355-79 and potentially down to 1.3295.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Back to the main direction

Corrections were seen yesterday and by and large may well be over. EURUSD stalled 2 points above my support and USDCHF 5 points above target. I pointed out the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds yesterday and that the Dollar had broken bearishly through. Well, the corrections retested those Clouds yesterday. What did go wrong was GBPUSD but in retrospect I’m quite satisfied as the next projection (if the correction had been shallower) would have been a squeeze but this should now achieve that comfortably from the point of view of projections from multiple wave degrees.

So we should be expecting further Dollar losses. I can see certain barriers on the way that have the potential to make the development a rather choppy and slow one. These I dislike intensely due to the greater risk of misjudgement through excessive noise. However, the projection areas are quite solid with the expectations I have had for the past 10 days or so still very much in line with targets.

The Aussie was another that frustrated with another minor new low, deepening the hourly bullish divergence but now has the sharply declining 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud sitting on top of price. It suggests some limited ranges as we start the day as normally the Clouds have to flatten out before penetration can be achieved. It may allow minor new lows so take care.

The JPY pairs… With EURJPY reaching key resistance levels and USDJPY seeing a mini-minor correction (where it should) we do seem to be in the terminal stages of this rally. Yes, there is potential for further gains but I am rather concerned over the cross that is beginning to show signs of frailty and thus note that the USDJPY projections may well be truncated (but for classic Elliotticians not in the manner of a failed fifth as they do not exist…) More likely the risk is for a shorter than normal final projection. Take care with these two…

No great killer moves today anywhere and more of a workmanlike day.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Monday, November 25, 2013

NEW TESTIMONIAL

I may not be able to thank you everyday but I want you to know that your hard work in making the report  is greatly appreciated. I have tried some other analysis providers but yours excelled. Keep up the great work!

Goldie Zerna , Philippines

Corrections due…

Overall Friday was a positive one for my views. EURUSD is moving back towards the 1.3578 high in EURUSD and has broken below the prior 0.9078 low in USDCHF. As mentioned on Friday GBPUSD made further gains but less aggressively than the other two Europeans. In particular the Dollar has penetrated the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds with strong momentum that tends to suggest we’re on the right track. However, structurally I don’t think this is going to follow-through too strongly today. Yes, I do feel the Dollar should weaken a bit more in early trading but not too far.

The Aussie seems to be very much in the same boat although I feel it’s more likely to see a correction first without moving to minor new lows. There is an hourly bullish divergence there but no 4-hour so the underlying direction does remain lower. Thus, treat this as being non-correlated with the Europeans overall.

USDJPY has progressed pretty much as expected. It always seems to enjoy making heavy work in its structural development but there do seem to be signs from the hourly chart that we’re due a correction here also before long. A combination of corrections in both USDJPY and EURUSD should therefore imply a modest correction in EURJPY obviously dependent on whether both move in tandem or at different times. There is an hourly bearish divergence in the cross and the potential for a 4-hour divergence also so note the key support levels that would risk a deeper move lower in the cross.

Therefore it does look like a rather 2-way day today and as such the key support & resistance levels should be observed and as usual, look out for price reversal patterns and momentum indications at key targets.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  


Friday, November 22, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR GBPUSD

BIAS: This still looks like leading the pack - note support at 1.6170 and projections at 1.6122 and 1.6245

Resistance: 1.6200-05 1.6222-30 1.6245 1.6264
Support: 1.6170 1.6140-45 1.6118-22 1.6100

MAIN ANALYSIS: The 1.6059-86 area did provide support from where we have seen steady gains to reach 1.6200-05. This should see the 1.6170 area support and extend gains to 1.6222 for a correction of around 25-35 points and then move to test the 1.6245 projection target. Expect a correction of around 55-65 points before the next rally that should surpass 1.6245 to reach 1.6275-05 for a correction. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 1.6160 would disappoint though note the 1.6140-45 support. Below there would risk losses back to 1.6100 and potentially 1.6059-81…

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
22nd November:  This is now developing well and much how I'd expected last week… From here the 1.6170-90 area should support and see gains to 1.6222 & 1.6245 and later 1.6275-1.6305. Here we should see a correction.

Only back below 1.6140-45 and 1.6059 would turn this lower on a daily basis.

Good trading
Ian Copsey