Wednesday, July 31, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURJPY


BIAS: There is lack of clarity and best follow USDJPY and EURUSD

Resistance: 130.30 130.51 130.88-16 131.36
Support: 129.80 129.58 128.70-90 128.00

MAIN ANALYSIS: The 130.10-36 area did not cap and the move higher was too deep to fit within the bearish structure. Thus, it seems as if the 129.58 low was the final low in the first section of the decline. The problem we now face is how deep the correction be? So far it is around 30% and that could be enough. However, I do see upward risk in EURUSD and potentially in USDJPY also. Thus, I feel we need be open for gains to 130.88-131.16. There is also 131.36 but I have more doubts that it could be that strong. Thus, while unclear, we should be looking for bearish reversal indications...

COUNTER ANALYSIS: An earlier dip below 129.58 would appear to point to direct losses - the immediate target being the 128.00 corrective low. This should hold on first test but overall the bearish outcome looks more bearish then and I'm not convinced that USDJPY is pointing to these losses at the current time. Below 128.00 there are only minor supports at 127.50-60 and 126.95-05 ahead of the 126.57 low.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
31st July:   We have seen some progress and while a mildly deeper correction is still possible I do feel that we have established the first leg and now it's a matter of confirming the correction. Once this is done we should be able to home in on a few potential bearish projections. At this stage we do not have enough information. 

Only back above 132.73 would risk a move back to the 133.81 high.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Signs of change?


Another dull day… another yawn. Well, mostly. There were a stand out shock in GBPUSD and an even bigger one in AUDUSD but other than that the rest yawned, made attempts at following through and then retraced. On a multi-currency basis this has certainly mixed up the outlooks in a rather spicy cocktail that is going to require several extra hands to juggle the range of structures that are now developing. It’s quite a headache balancing all these out…

Let’s start with EURUSD and USDCHF that pretended to continue the Dollar losses but corrected. Obviously this was a pain in the backside but has resulted in a “finish the move or break the structure” situation. It should provide some decent areas to watch for trades and preferably at the target areas I have been pointing to for around 2 weeks. On the other side of the coin, it does also highlight where this breaks down. However, the additional finger in the pie is GBPUSD and its fall from grace. Does that mean it has to move lower. The answer is both no and yes and probably no again. However, I can see a potential scenario how they can all come back into correlation again. This outlook is probably one that could identify the make-or-break scenarios…

The Aussie… urgh… disaster… Potentially it has the makings of a possible larger decline. I have been working on the scenario that we could see a new high above 1.1080. Yesterday’s move places a big question mark over that but I’m still working on the alternatives although a gaze at the monthly chart does highlight bearish cycles until mid 2016… For now I need to get a better hold on the current structure that has one or two anomalies that need to be flattened out.

Finally the JPY currencies. The recovery in EURJPY appears more indicative of a correction higher. For this we have a possible double dose of bullishness – upward expectation in both EURUSD and USDJPY. The question that remains is whether they happen at the same time. Let’s just say we need this pullback in USDJPY to provide it with a balanced structure but it will mean both a new low and then correction so the impact on the cross is somewhat unclear in terms of whether the two underlying pairs move in tandem or against each other. I don’t think we’re quite ready for significant losses in USDJPY just yet.

So another cagey day but I feel the pairs with the most straight forward outlooks are EURUSD and USDCHF…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Another long day?


The market is clearly in a state of super negative warp drive… It’s a bit like saying “why take only one step to your destination? Let’s take 1,000 steps and get a good sleep on the way.” This slow, meandering route to targets saps the energy and dulls enthusiasm. However, the targets I have outlined over the past days and even 1-2 weeks remain in place and there has been no sign to suggest they won’t be reached. Indeed, I remain confident that we’ll reach them either today (if a pin can be poked up the market’s backside) or perhaps tomorrow. These relate mainly to the European currencies and to a certain extent the Aussie also.

I’m not convinced that we’ve seen the end of the deeper correction that developed yesterday. There’s still more room for a marginal new Dollar high. I say that as while some corrections have been deep enough there are one or two that could benefit from this new corrective high in order for the downside targets not to be compressed into unusually short projections. If my suspicion of another marginal new Dollar high is correct then I reckon they’ll generate good levels for the final move. Then just watch the targets I provided in yesterday’s video.

The JPY pairs keep pushing lower but very gradually. They’re quite close to a downside target but they, too, seem to be subject to slow development and I suspect this will continue today. Certainly, the fine balance between the outlooks in the individual pairs (USDJPY, EURUSD and EURJPY) is quite delicate and for the most part USDJPY and EURUSD should develop quite closely. There is little upside and downside leeway in the cross but does require a mild correction and new lows before a deeper correction.

Thus, today looks like starting as yesterday finished with some cagey and defensive development. The objective should be to spot where the Dollar will make further losses but also then understanding where those losses will stall. However, I remain confident of those levels I have advised.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, July 29, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDCHF


BIAS: There seems to be risk of seeing 0.9310-30 before losses to 0.9197-20

Resistance: 0.9299-02 0.9310 0.9329 0.9343-47
Support: 0.9277 0.9263 0.9241 0.9220

MAIN ANALYSIS: Price remained below the 0.9310-15 area for losses back to the 0.9283 low and then into the 0.9253-67 projection area. This still has potential for the correction to reach the 0.9310-15 and max 0.9330 area before losses retest the 0.9263 low (approx) and later follow-through to the 0.9197-20 area. From here we should see a much deeper correction higher. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only a break back above the 0.9355 area would confuse and risk a retest of 0.9394-06… Above there note the 0.9442 and 0.9477 levels.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
26th July: It's been 10 days since I last updated but we've been making steady progress in the downside that I have been suggesting would reach 0.9240-70. As this has progresses, and in particular yesterday's decline I am seeing more risk of losses that could break below 0.9240. This would imply the deeper 0.9209 projection. However, with momentum still bearish I feel we should also consider potential for the 0.9197 area. This would have a completely different implication - but we'll sort that out when the 0.9197-09 target is reached...

Only directly back above 0.9370-75 and 0.9406 will cause immediate problems.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

The follow-through shouldn’t last long…


Friday did indeed see a slow start – but then a slow middle and slower end. It was quite a feat of collective ingenuity to avoid the Dollar extending losses. There’s even a chance this could extend today, at least for the Asian session but I can’t see any real chance of it lasting much longer. So, we should eventually see the Dollar make the push through the support barrier and towards the targets I have been muting for some while. However, this does seem to suggest that GBPUSD will probably not meet the original target but a lower one. Nevertheless it shouldn’t alter the final outcome over the next week or two.

The same can be said of AUDUSD although this seems to be boxing itself in to a certain extent – or forcing a strong follow-through in order that the lower wave degree targets can meet the higher degree. There’s always a certain tendency for it to feint and shimmy so the early stages of the day should highlight whether it will approach the next target directly or following a mildly deeper correction. However, overall this is development is constructive and the underlying move higher should continue.

Perhaps more of interest is the rush lower in USDJPY, dragging with it EURJPY. This extended lower more than I had anticipated and sense there is a little more to go – in both USDJPY and EURJPY. However, in this particular decline we are close to an intermediate low and a correction due. It is this next correction that holds the uncertainty but I sense that it may not be that deep with the follow-through higher in EURUSD likely to be limited. I would therefore suggest that you take note of the EURUSD target as this could be the bearish trigger for the cross… perhaps USDJPY also…

So it looks like an interesting start to the week. Be aware of the key downside targets in the Dollar and of the impact on EUR crosses.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Sunday, July 28, 2013

TECHNICAL INDICATIONS FROM 26th JULY

As usual, here are a few more observations from yesterday's developments. The charts display the day's support and resistance from the daily report issued around 2am-3am GMT and last for the rest of the day. 

Comments provide examples of integrating technical indicators and the implications. There's not too much change from Friday although we saw range trading in the Europeans as suggested in the daily forex outlook. If there is any stronger signal it came from the JPY pairs...

These indicators and daily support and resistance are available free of charge on the fast and responsive WorldWideMarkets MT4 platform. Contact me for more details or sign up here. (Offer applies to non-U.S. residents.)


USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
EURJPY
AUDUSD
Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, July 26, 2013

TECHNICAL INDICATIONS FROM 25th JULY

As usual, here are a few more observations from yesterday's developments. The charts display the day's support and resistance from the daily report issued around 2am-3am GMT and last for the rest of the day. 

Comments provide examples of integrating technical indicators and the implications. Momentum remains Dollar bearish in general across the board.

These indicators and daily support and resistance are available free of charge on the fast and responsive WorldWideMarkets MT4 platform. Contact me for more details or sign up here. (Offer applies to non-U.S. residents.)


USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
EURJPY
AUDUSD
Good trading
Ian Copsey


Follow through later in the day…


The day began looking as if we’d see consolidation but ended up slightly differently. Well, USDCHF did work out almost point perfect in a consolidation but there was little else it could do in that position. In EURUSD and GBPUSD the will was there but the upside failure (even if GBPUSD made a glorious effort towards 1.5391) followed by the new corrective lows broke the potential for the sideways move. Hence the subsequent direct gains.

So we’re one step closer to the next higher wave degree targets… and that’s the challenge for today. The immediate problem I see is that the follow-through is unlikely to be direct and I could imagine that this may last into European time – if really slow even into N.A. time. So best still focus on looking for signs of the Dollar topping out in this correction and for the next leg to develop. Whether this ends today or on Monday is something we’ll have to tackle as this all develops. However, I reckon we’ll see them today with the projection targets pretty well set as detailed in the past two weeks’ videos.

The Aussie bottomed out a little higher than expected but certainly overall in the right area so now we need to follow the rally. Like the Europeans the risk is for early consolidation/correction but basically we should be looking for higher levels later.

The JPY pairs… Eureka! At long &%4@!! last… Still, EURJPY may not evolve quite as quickly as USDJPY because of the expected strength in EURUSD so do be aware of the cross being rather choppy and possibly even range bound. Once EURUSD reaches its next larger target it is due a deeper correction. At that point we should find the cross begins to accelerate lower.

USDJPY … well, it’s rather in the same position as the Europeans at this moment. I can see a correction and them follow-through lower but I’m not expecting a repeat of yesterday’s blockbuster day.

In summary, we should see a quiet start following which the Dollar should then see losses all round…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey