Sunday, June 30, 2013

TECHNICAL INDICATIONS FROM 28th JUNE

As usual, here are a few more observations from Friday's developments. The charts display the day's support and resistance from the daily report issued around 2am-3am GMT and last for the rest of the day. 

Comments provide examples of integrating technical indicators and the implications. Overall momentum is looking bullish for the Dollar and therefore we seem to be more at risk of Dollar gains in general. However, there are some shorter term complications to observe.

These indicators and daily support and resistance are available free of charge on the fast and responsive WorldWideMarkets MT4 platform. Contact me for more details or sign up here. (Offer applies to non-U.S. residents.)


USDJPY
EURUSD
USDCHF
GBPUSD
EURJPY
AUDUSD
Good trading
Ian Copsey

Friday, June 28, 2013

GOLD OUTLOOK FROM 13th NOVEMBER 2012

I thought I'd just post this to highlight how Harmonic Elliott Wave can identify larger moves as well as shorter. Of course, there is always the need to monitor how the move progresses to ensure it is developing in the correct structure and with relevant ratios for each leg of the development. There can always be deviations along the way or complications that could alter the manner and structure to the point where things break down. However, this is one of the greatest benefits of Harmonic Elliott Wave. Instead of wondering whether Wave 1 will be extended, or Wave 3 or even Wave 5 and by how much or just where it will stop - one of the major problems in traditional Elliott Wave... Harmonic Elliott Wave, while requiring greater attention to detail, does generate far more confidence in requiring ratios to be appropriate. It also requires lower wave degrees to have matching targets to larger wave degrees.

This is from the monthly section of the FX & Metals Weekly Harmonic Analyst from the 13th November 2012:

Can Gold extend even deeper? I think there's every chance. I continue to monitor its progress and update each week in the report.

Good trading
Ian Copsey


DAILY FORECAST FOR GBPUSD


BIAS: We should be looking for losses to resume soon

Resistance: 1.5265 1.5280-96 1.5320-25 1.5345-50
Support: 1.5240 1.5201-20 1.5185 1.5150-55

MAIN ANALYSIS: We didn't get the minor new low but did see the correction move to the 1.5340-70 area. I hadn't expected the downtrend to resume so quickly and it did so with a flourish to reach 1.5201. From there we have seen a slow correction but I see the upside limit at 1.5280-96. From there we should see losses back to around the 1.5201 low (approx) followed by a correction and then lower to reach 1.5074. Here we should see a decent correction higher.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Thus, only a direct break back above 1.5300-10 would risk further gains although the structure will then be quite confusing. Note the 1.5345-50 resistance and the 1.5396 corrective high.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
28th June:  Yesterday's more direct losses have provided stronger information and it seems my downside targets may well have been a little too aggressive. Thus, while the 1.5265-96 area caps it looks like we'll see losses to the 1.5074 projection to be followed by a correction of around 130-160 points.

Only back above 1.5350 and 1.5396 will break this outlook.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Dollar gains to resume?


The Dollar corrected lower as suggested although not uniformly across the Europeans. However, the minor new highs I had expected did not materialise, EURUSD and GBPUSD corrected directly, USDCHF decided to extend its move higher before correcting and what’s more EURUSD continued correcting while GBPUSD decided to take a long walk down a steep hill…

It placed the Europeans in rather a strange position. Yes, the underlying trend remains Dollar bullish but we have all three in mildly conflicting positions. On the one hand we haven’t really see much of a correction in USDCHF while EURUSD and GBPUSD can continue their declines at any time. It left me wondering whether I have the structures correct. However, possibly EURJPY (which didn’t develop anything like I had expected) may provide a clue.

So EURJPY corrected higher and quite deeply and with barely any room on the upside before it breaks the bearish structure. To add to this rather unromantic ménage à trois USDJPY hasn’t yet completed it rally. This seems to imply direct losses in EURUSD with GBPUSD also close to a corrective ceiling. This would leave USDCHF out in the cold… or perhaps seeing a very, very shallow correction…

As you can imagine there are some very finely balanced situations here that could easily cause problems if just one pair decides to spoil the party… Of all I feel USDJPY has got the stronger story and we can build an outlook around this.

Oh, and I can’t forget the Aussie…

Actually, on second thoughts I think I will forget it… It’s playing around too much and I’d rather leave it alone to let it break either support or resistance to get it to tell us what it wants to do – and that’s assuming it even knows…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, June 27, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR USDJPY


BIAS: The 97.55 - 98.00 range looks important

Resistance: 97.93-00 98.18-23 98.40 98.68-88
Support: 97.55-60 97.23 96.96 96.74

MAIN ANALYSIS: No break above 98.35 to confirm the larger move to 99.28+. Thus losses were seen and below 97.67-80 to make it look more like extending losses. However, the recovery from yesterday's 97.23 low does have a constructive look about it and if we treat the 98.23 high as a stubby initial wave there is still an argument for the upside to extend to 99.28+... Here I'll put a 97.45 break level in place. Indeed, if this is to make further gains then I suspect the 97.55-60 area to be the most we see on the downside and from there look for gains up to 98.68-88 and following a brief correction up to the 99.28-60 area (allow for 99.80-90.) 
Expect a minor new high around 97.93-00 first ting and then the pullback to test the key support...

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Any earlier break below 97.45-55 and then yesterday's 97.23 low would see this move lower, initially to the 96.96 low  and later to 96.45 at least. Take care here. Note the next support at 95.78…

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
25th June:  Because price fell short of the ideal 98.77 target we're going to have to be open to the alternative of an irregular triangle as in EURJPY. I could absorb a deeper correction to the 96.45-75 area but not really any more. It also happens that 96.44 is a potential projection in the decline from 98.69 and also a pivot support. I do see this as a critical divider between bullish and bearish. As long as it holds and we see gains back above 97.00-30 we can move higher to the 99.25-70 area. Any loss of 96.44 would risk follow-through to 95.78 (probably) and 95.39-57 (maybe) but  then a correction before heading down to the 94.95-10 area minimum and probably 94.45-55.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Correction due


The market heard my comment about “my pace” and quickened its progress slightly, more thanks to a shallow intermediate correction in EURUSD and GBPUSD. Thus, all three Europeans lost out against the Dollar and there still seems to be further to go. However, don’t get too carried away with solid Dollar gains quite yet. I do feel the market’s “pace” will quicken but not until a more modest correction lower. So basically in the Europeans it should mostly be a steady day without any big swings or surprises.

More, the Aussie has continued to bug me. It certainly has its own “pace” slow and cumbersome when the sun’s shining but awkward and clumsy when cloudy. It has fallen short of targets, marginally exceeded, retraced shallower than expected and then more. I have come down to considering the sharp decline from the 0.9665 high and that we have not actually completed this wave. If I’m right in this outlook then we’re in for further choppy trading but this time hopefully with valid downside projection ratios and subsequent pullback. The upshot should be some rather messy and whippy moves so take care.

USDJPY… well, the term “my pace” could quite easily be given to this pair – and EURJPY. I began to get bullish for USDJPY, then considered a more bearish alternative. Neither side really followed through. I do think we’re closer to a resolution and perhaps today will provide us with the final clues to feel more confident. Certainly, in USDJPY there are now much stronger and defined break levels that would confirm one way or the other.

As for EURJPY, the basic direction remains lower but still in slow-motion mode… It’s a bit of a painful process but bear with it. Probably by next week we should see this large consolidation complete and the next trending move develop.

Thus today should be another steady day but the Dollar correcting lower by the end.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

"My pace..."


In Japan they apply the term “my pace” for someone that takes all the time in the world to do something without referencing the need for getting on with things. I think that adequately describes the market right now. They’re really painful periods since such slow development commonly comes along with wretched minor corrections tucked inside larger wretched corrections and complicating the whole process, often leaving open multiple options.

I mentioned yesterday that we’d probably not see particularly strong Dollar gains as it has to build up a base for a larger move. As far as I can see, yesterday only saw half the base having been constructed… and the implication (unless some official decides to stick a pin up the market’s backside) is for a very similar day to yesterday… Thus, the underlying expectation is for the Dollar to make gains. However, there’s a good chance it won’t look like it once again today.

That even looks as if it could apply to the Aussie also. It began to move lower but baulked. I suspect it could produce a minor new corrective high but there does still look like minor new lows to come. Play a patient waiting game here. Better opportunities don’t look too far away.

As for USDJPY... well, a deeper correction before losses. When I look at it one way I can see an argument for another push lower while an alternative perspective could suggest that it has finished with its decline. However, I can’t see it pushing up too much as EURJPY still has an upside limitation. I can see the cross as a potential guide for both EURUSD and USDJPY though the latter probably has more identifiable break levels that would mark the beginnings of a new (intermediate) directional move. Again, if I look at how I feel EURJPY must develop in the larger picture and the expected strength in the Dollar against the Europeans it does tend to point to a higher USDJPY.

It looks like another day like yesterday…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURJPY


BIAS: While 128.40-70 caps we should see losses to 126.80 and 125.55-75

Resistance: 128.40-70 129.20 129.60 129.90
Support: 127.85-95 127.05-27 126.80 126.35

MAIN ANALYSIS: Losses were seen yesterday although the low eluded me. There is still downside to come and this should see the 128.40-70 area cap (max 129.20) for losses to resume back to yesterday's 127.27 low and allow for the 127.05 corrective low and possibly even 126.80. Down in this 126.80-127.27 area we should see a correction and once complete should then see price extend to the 125.55-75 area at least. If USDJPY begins to break down also then allow for the 124.95-16 lows. From one of these target areas we should see a modestly deeper correction.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only back above 129.20 would risk a move back towards the 129.90 high. Perhaps then I'd have to reconsider the possible recycling to the 130.70 and  131.28-60 areas.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
24th June:  Friday's deeper correction is pushing this towards the irregular triangle scenario that would see losses down to the 125.55-75 area - maybe even the 124.95 low.

Only back above 130.00 would help resurrect the 130.70-90 target and later 131.50-00 in an expanded flat correction - but then head lower.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Pointing to Dollar gains?


Yesterday’s summary on the outlook for the day proved accurate: “I’m not quite so certain that we’re going to get a particularly aggressive day today. I do see some follow-through strength in the Dollar but not so much that it’ll continue its rally directly.”

Now that has occurred the risk of a more directional move is now much stronger. From what I can see all three Europeans now appear pretty much in the same position in terms of that potential. Having said that the initial requirement is for a platform to be built that will provide the springboard for the stronger follow-through. Thus, be prepared for Dollar gains but don’t expect the world in terms of the strength seen.

The Aussie reached my corrective target area… kinda… but not quite in the manner I had been expecting. That it made a minor new low and recycled higher was not one of the options I considered. Life sucks… That’s the nature of the myriad of corrective structures that can develop. However, now seen we should see the downside extend a bit further and here we need note the projections targets from both long term and short term wave degrees…

USDJPY fell short of target… which was exceptionally annoying. Ok, it was “only” 8 points but that’s a bit too much for me. I’ll stick with the bullish view for the moment although the correction does have potential to deepen a little more. However, this shortfall is something of which we need be aware in case it follows the same course as EURJPY – that of an irregular triangle. I have opted to remain bullish more down to how I see EURJPY developing in conjunction with EURUSD (and that there should only be limited downside in this leg.) However, when considering cross-currencies there can be multiple scenarios so this is something to watch with care.

Thus, today should see Dollar gains, probably not too direct but setting itself up on a platform for later gains…

Good trading
Ian Copsey