Saturday, December 22, 2012

TECHNICAL INDICATIONS 21st DECEMBER

Here are a few more observations from yesterday's developments. The charts display the day's support and resistance from the daily report. Comments provide examples of integrating technical indicators and the implications.

These indicators and daily support and resistance are available free of charge on the fast and responsive WorldWideMarkets MT4 platform. Contact me for more details or sign up here. (Offer applies to non-U.S. residents.)


USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

EURJPY


Good trading
Ian Copsey















Friday, December 21, 2012

For now range bound but after Xmas the risk is for Dollar losses to extend


I shall be taking a break until January 2nd to catch up on 4 months lost sleep… However, I am planning a couple of information videos so do keep checking in...


Having looked at the charts from overnight I can see price action has deteriorated with low liquidity and it’s evident there’s a great deal more noise and general erratic behavior to focus on specific projections/retracements. Therefore I shall concentrate more on the underlying outlook for the coming week (which is more like 3 days…) rather than expectations for today. I think it’s pretty evident that the Dollar is in a downtrend with the exception of USDJPY which is exactly the opposite and pretty obvious looking at the EURJPY chart…

Starting with the Europeans the immediate question is whether the correction is over and the downtrend will resume directly or whether the current correction will extend. From what I have seen I think the odds favour today being a sideways day, may just see minor new extremes and if this continues into next week then it could still be with expansions to widen that range on both sides. This does seem to be evident in the Dollar Index also.

Once the Dollar resumes losses, whether directly or after the consolidation, there are some fairly good identifiable targets to watch for and I suspect these could be seen by the end of next week. I shall detail these in each section of the report. Once we get to those targets the prospect is for another longer and more complex period of corrective price activity. This also applies to AUDUSD…

USDJPY and EURJPY… Now these two are a little more complicated. The rallies here have been persistent, quite obviously so in the cross. I had begun to get a little more bearish in USDJPY yesterday although at the same time feeling uncomfortable that it had not reached the normal minimum target for this particular wave. However, having had a second look, and while the internal ratios are not convincing, I am edging towards further (but not excessive) gains to the slightly higher projections I had outlined at the beginning of October. Any drop below yesterday’s lows would begin to damage the bullish prospect.

The impact on the cross is therefore quite obvious although projection levels are getting quite stretched and alternation has not been evident which concerns. It is due a deep, deep correction but I’m beginning to think this will need corrections in both EURUSD and USDJPY. Thus, we may be talking about seeing EURUSD to its higher target by the end of next week and the same with USDJPY… Take care with these two JPY currencies…

May I wish each and everyone a Christmas with family warmth, a splendid holiday season and a particularly happy and successful 2013.

Ian Copsey 

Thursday, December 20, 2012

TECHNICAL INDICATIONS 19th DECEMBER

Here are a few more observations from yesterday's developments. The charts display the day's support and resistance from the daily report. Comments provide examples of integrating technical indicators and the implications.

These indicators and daily support and resistance are available free of charge on the fast and responsive WorldWideMarkets MT4 platform. Contact me for more details or sign up here. (Offer applies to non-U.S. residents.)


USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

EURJPY

Good trading
Ian Copsey




















Possibly room for consolidation but the bearish Dollar outlook remains


I was pretty satisfied with yesterday’s moves and overall very interesting in terms of the US Dollar – equity outlook. Yesterday’s Dollar lows all extended marginally below the ideal targets but within acceptable range. Even this slightly deeper move is placing further pressure on the Dollar that seems to have very little room for respite. This is echoed in the Dollar Index that may well extend those losses further given the growing risk of corrections in both USDJPY and EURJPY.

The Dollar Index appears to have little, or perhaps no room, for yesterday’s recovery to deepen and this may well impact on the European currencies. My initial view of these three was that the corrections seen from yesterday’s Dollar lows could deepen slightly. EURUSD and USDCHF are in positions where their corrections have no determinable retracements. GBPUSD does and has a little more leeway for further (limited) losses. I’ll go as far as to say that they appear to have set themselves up for the potential to see sideways consolidations over the Xmas break.

This may well be where the balance between USDJPY and the Europeans could provide some leeway for the Europeans to remain in a sideways consolidation maintaining the Dollar Index in a sideways consolidation. Yesterday’s USDJPY high fell a little short of the normal minimum target and this morning’s drop is threatening a much deeper correction that has quite a distance to go. I am still slightly wary given the shortfall in the ideal target and would prefer to see one more high but I certainly wouldn't fight the downside.

Indeed, if there is any stronger trade over today it should be in USDJPY where I see the largest risk for a sizeable move over the next few days. It should pull EURJPY down with it, itself with reasonably definable limits that will require a balance between the Europeans and USDJPY to maintain their independent structures. It could be a bit complicated but if all else fails, Dollar bearish appears to be the best approach.

With just today and tomorrow as providing any liquidity, even sparse, note that any surprise introduced into the market could well provoke a sharp move… Take care…

Good trading
Ian Copsey 

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

DAILY FORECAST FOR GBPUSD


BIAS: We should see follow-through to 1.6299 today for a correction

Resistance: 1.6269 1.6284 1.6299 1.6322
Support: 1.6230-43 1.6216 1.6195 1.6171

MAIN ANALYSIS: The rally was correct, the levels a little off. However, we do seem to be in the last leg of this rally that should now reach the 1.6299 projection. Look for this to cap and provoke a correction back to the 1.6220-40 area from where the uptrend should resume. The first move higher from there should be straight back to the 1.6299-22 area and overall I expect this will later reach around 1.6398.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only below 1.6195 would concern for a dip back to the 1.6151 pivot support at least… Below is 1.6120-25 and 1.6084.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
19th December:   We are now close to the intermediate target at 1.6299-08. Also note the higher 1.6336 area. This should trigger only a modest correction back to around 1.6120-40 before approaching the 1.6400-30 area. This should trigger a correction although the depth at this point is unknown.

Only back below 1.6100 and then 1.6050 would risk 1.6000 again...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A pullback possible but the underlying direction remains Dollar bearish


Hmmm... Good and bad yesterday. The Swissie and Pound did what they were supposed to, not quite to the point but basically towards the right areas in general. The Euro… well, that’s got me stumped fro the moment although I did recognise the risk of being dragged along behind the other two Europeans. That it has done and provided a backdrop of structures that tend to suggest that the prospect of deep corrections may be limited. I’m not quite decided on this but in GBPUSD and AUDUSD (after it has broken out of this consolidation) look as if they have limited corrections for a while. I can also see one scenario suggesting that EURUSD replicates this more direct follow-through. The small bug that holds me back is that, if this is the case, then the start of the move does not really justify the ultimate projection targets. Equally, I’m not convinced on USDCHF at this point. However, when analysing the Dollar Index the impression I received was one of fairly direct follow-through.

The one thing I can say is that in the daily picture the outlook does look bearish. They haven’t quite cleared recent highs but the U.S. equity indices also have potential for a direct follow-through higher and this backs up the Dollar bearish picture also… Therefore, if in doubt and supports break, follow the bearish route for now…

The fly in the ointment is USDJPY. It is moving higher, and at a snails pace, but is also getting closer to a point where a deeper correction is threatened. This should therefore be true of EURJPY that has been the greatest beneficiary of the negative correlation between EURUSD and USDJPY… However, since the 100.32 low the relative depths of corrections has been shallow and the uptrend relentless having caught me out a couple of times now. However, persistent shallow corrections must eventually provoke a deeper correction. The problem has been in identifying where that will develop, a result of the tremendous noise and the driving rally. All I can do at this point is to identify potential projection targets but probably the best indicator for the cross will be the target in USDJPY that is quite clear.

Thus, continue to favour Dollar losses against the Europeans and Aussie, including EURUSD it seems, and a higher USDJPY but which has limited upside space left…

Good trading
Ian Copsey 

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

WEEKLY OUTLOOK VIDEO FOR THE 10th DECEMBER



This video was provided to subscribers of the daily and weekly Forex reports on the 3rd December to visually highlight the underlying analysis, not only the Harmonic Elliott Wave count but integrating other analysis to provide a background of the movement that will be required to retain the current wave count and key support and resistance areas that would risk a break in the count. 


Want to see this video at the start of the week? I provide these videos for subscribers to the Harmonic Daily Forecaster and the FX & Metals Weekly Harmonic Analyst. You can sign up for a free trial or contact me for details of special deals on the reports. 


Weekly video for the week of the 10th December


Good trading
Ian Copsey


It’s a bit messy…


The early Dollar lows in the Europeans were all in the right area and produced the initial reactions expected. Sounds good but there could be a little twist in the tail and something that needs to be kept in mind given we are in one of the strangest weeks of the year, one where market liquidity gets lower by the day and mass psychology turns into risk aversion in a game of pass-the-parcel rather than looking for the next directional move. As I mentioned in a previous post this generates two opposing reactions – tight and noisy range trading like yesterday and sharp readjustments that can develop consecutively in a trend.

That was typified by yesterday’s open followed by a day of watching paint dry.

From there we did have some divergence in reactions. EURUSD went nowhere, USDCHF corrected perfectly while GBPUSD rallied back to above the early high… The latter two have more potential to see Dollar losses and we therefore have to consider the possibility of the higher projection I mentioned in this week’s video outlook. I don’t see excessive Dollar losses but enough to settle projections in both USDCHF and GBPUSD but, of course, then a correction. Therefore, take care. At this point I don’t see anything taking off in a massive trend and even the Aussie looks more to be in a sideways consolidation but with what appears to be limited upside once complete.

So we’re probably down to the JPY currency pairs to generate a stronger reaction. USDJPY still hasn’t met its upside target and this should continue to move towards that target today. I have had to reshuffle EURJPY also. The cross has been one of those really tough structures with plenty of small corrections and relatively few modestly deep corrections. These are the hardest to forecast because of the noise in the small corrections that makes the identification of the base foundation waves to be very difficult. I’m onto my third revision, eying the potential for a still modest extension higher in both but probably requiring EURUSD to remain subdued so that the rally in USDJPY doesn’t (once again) break the EURJPY projections. However, at some point both are expected to correct much more deeply…

Good trading
Ian Copsey