Friday, December 15, 2017







Still some early swings before a follow-through

We have seen a range of reactions within the 6 pairs. The Aussie and EURUSD have completed an expanded flat. The Aussie has only just got to that point and a mild dip while EURUSD has managed a bearish foundation. USDCHF has done enough to pull itself out of its decline and GBPUSD has dithered, had a little turn and seems to be in a tizzy. However, it may have managed to develop a bearish foundation wave also.

As for USDJPY… well, I reckon it hasn’t yet met its final downside. Having said that, I reckon the early part of the day will find its base… Indeed, that last dip may well allow EURJPY to find a low for a pullback but much depends on the first reaction in EURUSD. It could still see a recycling higher but it looks pretty keen to get on with the downside.

So, over the Asian session and into the European, we should see the settings for a firmer directional wave…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, December 14, 2017

A shake out

I was feeling quite comfortable as I entered a few hours sleep. I woke up around 3am and began to go through the analysis and… smack, bang and a bomb exploded. December market syndrome…

So I spent much of the time having to work through the mess. Mostly it is done – there could be minor new Dollar losses but overall we should then revert back to the Dollar bullish development.

After that Dollar crash, we have very little wriggle room before it turns around to continue further losses. However, I can’t see that happening with all the foundation development that has gone on before. One pair, USDCHF does have that downside options – but again – just a limited dip. The Aussie could do the same although it will need a pullback first before a new high.

Overall, that suggests that we’re going to see limited initial moves, hopefully for the foundation waves for the next push higher in the Dollar – and that tends to provide the outliers in USDCHF and AUDUSD to complete their moves.

It looks like a choppy day…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, December 13, 2017


Target seen at 133.00.

Ian Copsey

No change

I would have liked a more direct rally in the Dollar but I guess in the relatively few days towards the market lull between over the next 7-10 days the liquidity will drain even further and the risk could be for niggling corrections, consolidations and expanded flats. However, the overall outlook remains the same. The Dollar should be moving higher.

Perhaps there could be one possible expanded flat in USDJPY. It’s hanging in the air but if it begins to make further downside there is that risk… I had mentioned the 113.74 level being the barrier – a 38.2% expansion - and a sharp drop that does seem to have a good chance of the downside.

As for the three Europeans, I can’t see the same option as USDJPY. However, the seasonal thin market does require some care due to the plethora of deep swings that make life pretty difficult to note every single move. It’s not a time of year to load up a large position…

EURJPY is taking a break for a pullback but there’s a limit and this pair will need further losses before long. This could be initially the potential for USDJPY to complete the expanded flat but EURUSD has the potential to extend losses also. If these two pairs combine we may find the cross seeing some sharp losses.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, December 11, 2017

Looks like a slow start to the week

Friday ended in a pullback. We should see this continue for a while but it seems to be a rather limited correction. Therefore, much depends on the market and whether they want to actually trade. There have been, at times, sideways moves that slow down the overall development. However, once this correction has been completed, the directional move suggests quite a decent move.

Therefore, it may be best to bide your time and look for the reversal.

The four majors appear to fit the general template above. That just leaves EURJPY and AUDUSD. The cross has very limited upside and that suggests rather stronger losses compared to EURUSD. Therefore, work with EURJPY to identify the reversal lower and but don’t have too much expectation for robust moves.

The Aussie has a more indefinable outlook. Last week saw a pretty robust decline and one that also had a sharp single 5-minute bar of 60 points that really makes life difficult. I have attempted to provide a count but I’d rather like to see today’s movements. I suspect we’ll see some swings on both sides of the market – but as I mentioned last week – there’s still quite a way to go.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, December 8, 2017

There appears to be risk of swings

It’s that time of year again. Suddenly we have seen some relatively robust moves but within a larger picture – and that suggests we could see some deep pullbacks. The added problem is that the lower degree waves have proliferated and that can cause risks in the structures. I’d like to say that we will see strong moves, but as I mentioned above, that could cause deep corrections. Thus, keep eyes peeled for divergences that could warn of a reversal. 

It is now quite clear that all pairs are now Dollar bullish but I do have some reservations in EURUSD. Yes, it is Dollar bullish but towards the end of a trend. That also implies swings in the Wave (v), perhaps even complex corrections.

Take note of EURJPY also. Here we have a balance between USDJPY and EURUSD as their respective trend develop. Thus, it may just trigger a complex correction although I’m not clear on the 3-wave rally…

The Aussie is just the same – some pretty firm losses occurring but keep track of momentum. Overall, it still has some way to go.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey