Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Third time lucky?

The first two days of the week defied my Dollar outlook. Clearly, I’m a bit frustrated with the lack of follow-through but remain with same view – though perhaps a little more cautious. I was surprised with the deeper pullback in EURUSD – and could envisage a difficult day for this pair. However, when I look at USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD there doesn’t seem to be much room for Dollar losses… Well, maybe it will be the same for EURUSD but in this situation I can envisage potential for minor follow-through on both the upside and downside. Any break lower would confirm the Dollar upside along with the other three majors. Thus, we need observe the other three majors to confirm some sort of correlation.

The Aussie… went walkabout (and looked like it imbibed plenty of the amber nectar.) At first it looked as if it was going to poke its head above 0.7554 to reach 0.7564 and then promptly crashed. So it looks like we’re going back to the 0.7485-95 area for the final rally…

EURJPY kinda worked well but was much stronger than I had expected to complete the triangle and should now begin to see losses but will also require a pullback higher. We have seen an initial 5-wave decline and is now looking for a pullback. How this will fit in with the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is something to observe… It looks like a mainly USDJPY bullish day but will need a pullback also – so could be modestly deep.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Monday, June 12, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURJPY

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:       I suspect we'll see a pullback into the 124.02-40 area for losses to resume

Resistance:   123.86          124.02     124.10-40     124.67-77

Support:        123.15-30     122.81     122.55-63     122.15-20

MAIN ANALYSIS:               I had trouble in seeing any impulsive decline from 124.02... Therefore, it now suggests a second pullback to above 124.02 but likely hold below 124.10-40. If seen, watch for bearish reversal indications for losses to resume. Once below 122.81 we should see the downside extend to 122.55-63 initially and later down through 121.90 and later lower. Overall, I am looking for a Wave iii target around 120.64 thru 120.05.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:     Only back above 124.41 could still see as high as 124.67-77 - max 124.91. However, overall note that the downside should soon resume.

Only a direct break below 122.80 would suggest direct losses…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A slow start for the week

Friday ended the week with more sedate moves rather than any strong impulsive development. Of course, last week was a pretty hectic and choppy week as the bulls and bears went head to head. What I see, as the week begins, is that we have the 4-majors in a blind spot – capable of both upside and downside. In particular, EURUSD may be awkward – but possibly not. It appears to be in a complex correction – an expanded flat although the alternative could be a descending triangle in a Wave b. The other three major pairs do still have room on both sides of the market

Once that is established then we can expect a more direct follow-through…

The Aussie went sleep-about on Friday but this has been a very consistent development over several months now. Ok, it's not several months but nearly 18 months. The outcome I have been stating over the past few days remains but there could be two routes to the eventual outcome.

As for EURJPY… I’m slightly favouring the upside. The decline from the 124.015 high just didn’t seem to work with an impulsive move and therefore it suggests a deeper pullback before the downside can resume. Therefore, bide your time and wait for the next bearish move…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  







Friday, June 9, 2017

General Dollar bullishness expected

We’re making solid progress although the lower degree structures have been agonisingly difficult. I’m still having to delve into the single 1-minute bars to decipher information. Even on quite a few occasions I have had to resort to tick-bar charts also so it has been very tough to work through the ratio structures. However, overall, we are gradually pulling away from the 1.1285 high in EURUSD.

The UK election results are being counted and earlier this morning we saw a very sharp 5-min bar drop by 259 points in GBPUSD. This could remain soft as the ballot papers are complete so we’ll either see a sharp recovery – or a sharp fall…

Elsewhere, USDJPY still finds the upside rather daunting. It should continue to develop but the clear bearish outlook in EURJPY will tend to maintain a rather lacklustre rally in USDJPY. We have to wait for a point where EURJPY will require a correction higher – and perhaps then USDJPY may be able to drum up the confidence to extend its move.

The Swissie has begun to push higher too. How strong this will be is a little difficult to judge – quite a few Wave iii projections are available but at the end of the Wave v – but then still need a pullback…

The Aussie… was on walkabout and appears to be fulfilling its pullback lower before the additional high. Once that is seen we can look for losses to resume…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, June 8, 2017

A dizzy day

I was extremely satisfied with the Dollar gains – at first – but then the market suffered from swing sickness. That’s rather like seasickness… It just swung one-way and then the other and made me dizzy. Indeed, these swings were so swift that I had to resort to working out the structures in the 1-minute charts – occasionally tick-bar charts – to confirm what was being seen.

Very clearly there’s still the battle of the bulls and bears but as far as I can see there is only one option. I am expecting the same today but hopefully without the raging battles. It seems the Dollar bears have been protecting their positions although we have a large contingent that is boxing the other way round. Yesterday’s “twaaaaannnngs” were just a mini version of what I am expecting…

Even USDJPY – finally – managed to find its final low. It should make some steady gains now but most likely EURUSD will outstrip USDJPY for a while. It seems as if it’s going to lag and this could imply the lower of the two daily projection targets I have noted from way back. I suggest this because it looks like EURJPY will continue to see losses in the larger picture.

The Aussie tricked me – by shifting the 5-wave moves higher. This is expected to see losses today but at some point it’ll have to push to a new high before losses resume.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, June 7, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:               We should either see a new high around 0.7522-35 for losses or a direct break below 0.7494

Resistance:     0.7522-35     0.7547-57     0.7584          0.7610

Support:          0.7494-00     0.7475          0.7443-57     0.7422

MAIN ANALYSIS:            The break above 0.7517 was a surprise… I am rather mixed between having seen the final high at 0.7522 or a break below 0.7494. Thus, if we see the blip up to 0.7522-35 watch for bearish reversal indications for losses to resume.

Equally, any direct loss of 0.7494 would confirm the 0.7522 high as the final high - and therefore watch for losses. Note support at 0.7443-57 that could provide a pause but later should see losses...

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    A break above the 0.7540 would surprise - and if seen then there's not a lot of resistance until 0.7584 and 0.7640…

Good trading 
Ian Copsey

Hopefully, we should see a one-way day…

Seriously, has someone stuck EURUSD to the 1.1285 high with glue? Is it that someone has decided that Purchasing Power Parity means that the Dollar must go lower? I recall in my early days in the Barclays trading room when the economist stated it was not an automatic outcome. Indeed, while I cannot recall the event, he turned out to be right. PPP has an amazing elasticity… And here I am now, not even considering any fundamental economic input.

There’s going to be a big “twaaaannnnggg…” coming up.

I wouldn’t rule out a test of 1.1285 again although I feel we’ll not see that. I’ll even allow for 1.1294 – but I really don’t think it’s going to break. There’s even a potential Double Top.

We’ve seen USDCHF reach within 7 points of a break – at 0.9605. GBPUSD has been doing some fine stuff on the downside – but of course, we need further losses to cement the move. USDJPY has extended losses far deeper than I had expected but the key there is at the 108.12 low.

The Aussie is due to move lower also while EURJPY, following its own amazing drop, has succumbed to a modestly deep pullback but which will still see a new low – but then a deeper correction. Most likely EURUSD on the downside will outstrip USDJPY on the upside.

We also have the Dollar Index requiring one more 5-wave rally – and a substantial one at that – to complete a triple three.

Twaaaannnnggg…

Good trading
Ian Copsey