Friday, September 23, 2016

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR GBPUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:      I suspect a deeper pullback to 1.3036-47 at least - perhaps 1.2992-08 - for gains to resume


Resistance: 1.3098 1.3120 1.3148 1.3173
Support: 1.3065 1.3036-47 1.2992-08 1.2970-75

MAIN ANALYSIS:     Price rallied as expected - above 1.3064 and 1.3091 to stall just below the 1.3127. We should now see a pullback lower - but now a little deeper - to between 1.2992-1.3036. Watch for bearish reversal indications for gains to reach 1.3148 or 1.3173. Then expect a correction of between 50-75 points before the rally can push up to new highs.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Directly below 1.2985-90 would allow a revisit to the 1.2944 low. If this breaks then continue to look for losses that should test the 1.2865 low…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Roundabouts and swings

The days when the Fed – and in this case, also the BOJ – make an announcement to show they that don’t know how to resolve the mess they’ve got themselves into, just while I’m going through the daily analysis, are always difficult times. Whips, hidden corrections (those that come in the tick charts and not even the 1-minute charts) create a lot of problems that take time to research before the deadline to release the report. Thankfully, for the most part, I identified the basic pattern of what should happen. The one I didn’t consider was EURJPY, mainly because of the bearish momentum in USDJPY. However, I realise now that I should have realised that the whole market appears to be in one mind in terms of structure.

So, apart from hidden waves in the tick charts that screwed up one or two projections, I was happy enough with yesterday’s outcome. Even then, there’s a slight imbalance between pairs that do not have the same structure, particularly in USDCHF and to a certain extent GBPUSD. This tends to suggest that we’re more likely to see fairly strong swings for a while but should compensate for the relative structures within the range of pairs. Some will breeze through the following moves while others will need deep Wave b/iii’s to match the extent of pullbacks to keep all pairs relatively correlated.

Therefore, I feel today is going go through a rather rocky day, maybe even with complex corrections, that will have the market being quite frustrating.

There is still some concern in USDJPY. It did recover but hardly with any robustness but has provided the basis for an impulsive move but still needs one or two developments to be able to feel more confident of the outcome I have been expecting for far too long…

Keep trades short in duration.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Thursday, September 22, 2016

I’m FED up…

The day began quite well, the Dollar then pushed below 1.1149 in EURUSD while USDCHF fumbled around like a headless chicken the GBPUSD wobbled, stabilised and then wobbled again.

Enter the FED… and all hell let loose…

I really should have been asleep at that moment but unfortunately I happened to be behind my PC monitor. At that point I was running around like a headless chicken, well more like tapping in levels in to my spreadsheet, only to see price whip one way and then the other. After trying to make sense of the senseless I gave up for a while and came back. The interesting outcome was the 1.1122 low in EURUSD and the balance between the three Europeans and their individual needs. I sense a recycling coming up…

Of all, perhaps it was the Aussie that stood its ground and pushed up into the 0.7604-15 target I was looking for. I was prepared for a deeper pullback – maybe even a total reversal – but the pullback was pretty shallow and the FED made its announcement and so price joined the Europeans with whipsaws and wobbles. There’s an hourly bearish divergence developing although I feel we may need to allow for gains… Take care with this one.

Finally, the JPY pairs... Abe has his own way of dealing with things, determined to force the economy into inflation. Little do they know that in the supermarkets that is already happening… In the UK back in the 70’s we experienced something called “shrinkflation.” This is where manufacturers reduced content and retained a steady price. I’d estimate that foodstuff probably has inflation of around 10%-20% already. Well, Abe’s comments caused as much bedlam as the FED doing nothing. We’re hitting downside levels similar to that of EURUSD at 1.1149… There’s a fragile balance – take care…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Wednesday, September 21, 2016

A day to be nimble

Yet another basically neutral day, initially promising Dollar losses but then failing to follow through. The fine lines are getting finer and the risk of alternative outcomes is becoming stronger by the hour. We do have the Fed’s interest rate decision today and followed by a press conference.

EURUSD started the day as I had expected. USDCHF saw the potential for a double top but the target hasn’t been met while GBPUSD reached the general target area I suggested. Now comes the critical part – what will happen next? I really can’t say that I am particularly confident of Dollar losses anymore. While GBPUSD has an apparent decent bullish divergence, it hasn’t been matched by 4-hour momentum. EURUSD has moved back lower to break last Friday’s low – even if by an extremely fine margin. USDCHF appears to be dithering and trying to push in one direction – then the other – without actually generating any momentum.

Basically, we need to be prepared for anything in the Europeans…

The 0.7529 low in the Aussie held magnificently and managed to climb up a shallow hill as if it was an ancient old man. Perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised because of the almost invisible Wave ii. Thus, there may well be further consolidation before it can poke its head above 0.7572 – by how much is the issue…

As for USDJPY… talk about dithering like USDCHF… It made a minor new low again yesterday – something I hadn’t really wanted to see. Still, it’s beginning to look a little more settled now and it would not surprise if it managed to poke its head above the recent peaks. EURJPY was driven lower by the lilly-livered EURUSD. There are some signs of bullish divergences but given the limp performance we’re going to have to follow the next break.

Care is still required until there is a stronger catalyst to signal a trend…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Tuesday, September 20, 2016

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR USDCHF

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:     We still need to confirm an outcome considering the 0.9818 high is critical


Resistance: 0.9806-18 0.9837-49 0.9884 0.9903
Support: 0.9770-83 0.9757 0.9735-40 0.9720

MAIN ANALYSIS:     So we saw a "massive" break above Friday's high 0.98175 to stall at 0.9818 - just 0.00002 below the Wave -x- on the 2nd September. We have also a potential double top but I'm not going to get too excited because the target will be at 0.9747 but with support at 0.9735-40. We'll have to see whether this correlates with the expected follow-through in EURUSD that will then provide a pullback/reversal in both pairs. This is where we need to be on alert for either a reversal higher above 0.98182 or further losses.
Any break lower below 0.9730 would provide more downside momentum for losses to 0.9692-05  and 0.9648...

COUNTER ANALYSIS:     Any earlier break above 0.98182 will confound but I'll have to work on alternatives. I can see one possibility that could work if EURUSD moves lower that will likely cause a move up to 0.9903 at least - being a deeper Wave ^C that - if EURUSD dips lower as described that would require a pullback - probably deep. Thus, be aware of the risk of a break above 0.9818.

However, note that when GBPUSD reaches the 1.2953-82 area it is expected to see a move back higher to 1.3265 minimum... and could be higher...

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Still not out of the woods…

It was a day of contrast, some pairs worked well and others decided to do their own funky stuff. For the most part, we saw a relatively narrow range day as expected and this has allowed the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds to move closer to price, in some pairs this has the potential to pressure price according to its position (above/below the Cloud.) We shall have to observe the reaction on price to judge whether we’ll see follow-through or rejection. Of course, we’ll have the Asian session probably remaining neutral and from there we need to observe Europe’s stance.

A few observations: USDCHF retested the 0.9818 high again – and actually made a new high above Friday’s high at 0.98175 to the 0.98180 level – just 0.00002 below the high on the 2nd September. This has provided a potential double top and arguably a bearish divergence although only by a margin of 0.00005… I was quite impressed with the recovery in EURUSD but it hasn’t confirmed anything at this point while the third European, GBPUSD reached the pullback area I identified. Still, we’re going to have to run the gambit of whether the range extends sideways or we get a break of the range limits.

I looked for the Aussie to recover but then it decided that it liked the upside so carried through. We could see this remain in a type of range although I feel we’ll see another new high today. However, watch momentum carefully. This could end up being a little tricky.

Finally, the JPY pairs sprung a surprise with new lows. Watch USDJPY in particular that has potential for an Inverse Head & Shoulders while EURJPY has provided a bullish divergence. This appears to have been a slight detour rather than a break of structure but best confirm the reversals.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  





Monday, September 19, 2016

Squeaky bottom time…

Talk about fine lines… The Continentals hit precise levels that divide the upside versus downside. OK, EURUSD was 1 point below but I’ll not get too upset about that. Having said that, if I take into account momentum, I’d have to say that things are not looking up for a Dollar bearish outlook. This has given me a big headache, not only from these two pairs in particular, but if I include GBPUSD there is an added complication because it’s not that far from my target from where gains should develop. In addition, moving back to USDCHF, the daily structure will be totally out of whack. So, I’m sitting here trying to decide what is going to happen. Or… perhaps more constructively, I’m waiting to see which scenario breaks down and that means sitting on my hands and making a decision later when I see which scenario breaks down.

The day has begun and USDCHF is slipping lower, EURUSD is paralysed and GBPUSD is exercising its stiff upper lip. If I am to make any suggestion then I sense that, most likely, we’re going to see a limited range day – or perhaps half a day.

The Aussie? Well, it performed like a trooper on Friday and bowed to my outlook and I expect it to continue to do so. However, compared to last year, momentum has slowed considerably and appears to have a more sedate development. The losses we have seen from the 0.7526 high have not been convincing and we may have to allow for gains today. This does tend to adhere to its recent, indecisive nature… Best, take things step by step…

As for the JPY pairs, USDJPY stalled a little above my expectations on Friday to make steady, though not spectacular gains. If my outlook from just over a week ago is correct – and appears to be so – then we’re likely to remain in a range for some while with the bulk of the range still above current price. This should help EURJPY higher also, particularly today with limited upside in EURUSD available to assist. Beyond that, I’d rather wait to make judgement until there is a stronger confirmation in the Europeans at least…

Good trading
Ian Copsey