Thursday, March 22, 2018


All looked to be developing well although some complications began to creep in. I had expected a pullback but by the end of the day, we had the FED mumbling something about something or other. To make this short and simple, basically, it has forced a few pairs to submit to an expanded flat. It’s not across all the pairs but with others seeing deeper pullbacks. It’s not quite complete and we should see the final legs over the course of the day. The basic template is a pullback and follow-through…

Then we can get back to the Dollar upside.

Even the Aussie managed the pullback – but that was always on the cards. It’s just that sometimes it can do a solo but in this case, it allowed the others to absorb the rate decision.

That left EURJPY pretty much as I had expected – a pullback higher and should now see losses develop once more.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, March 21, 2018


We’re getting through some decent moves. It will remain choppy in the larger picture due to the pairs that have deep Wave b/iii’s and I can see that we’re not too far from a reversal again. Of course, there are shallow pullbacks and deep pullbacks but so we’re going to have to be flexible at each stage. Most likely, further on, the market will gradually realise that we’ll get even stronger moves but I can’t see that being imminent.

Certainly, EURUSD and USDCHF have been reacting in quite a volatile development. The other two Majors, USDJPY and GBPUSD, have been less lively. Particularly in GBPUSD, the downside has been relatively shallow at this point. It does make me a little cautious just in case that we see a triple three. It’s something to keep in mind but we’ll need a catalyst to trigger the downside in the Pound. USDJPY is just a royal pain in the arse at the moment – but is developing slowly on a more bullish route.

I was a bit surprised with EURJPY. I originally had the Wave [a] above the Wave [i] and felt there could be a deep lower degree wave -a- to provide a deep Wave -b- but was far too deep. At this stage, if I use the original Wave [a] and Wave [b] it would imply the Wave [c]/[iii] of over 461.8%. I’m still looking for an alternative but overall we should still see losses.

As for AUDUSD, just look at the bullish divergence…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  


Tuesday, March 20, 2018




Flip, I had expected a stunted move and reversal but the pullback developed a little quicker than expected. Clearly, we have seen some decent Dollar losses but I feel that, on the whole, (GBPUSD a possible exception) we have likely seen the full extent of the correction. However, I’m not quite so convinced about GBPUSD that seems to need another push higher.

USDJPY seems to be on its way higher but I’d like a little more development to really confirm the upside. The past two trading days really haven’t set the market alight so it still has some work to confirm stronger upside. It should – but I’d like to see a break above 106.41.

There’s a good argument for EURUSD to reverse its rally although there is a little more room on the upside – and I mean “a little”. The same can be said of USDCHF also. It’s just GBPUSD that could complicate the balance. I suspect too, that EURJPY should turn back lower also.

Finally, AUDUSD… This is really a tough pair. I have been surprised by the robustness of the decline – and appears to be heading to lower levels that should turn it back higher to a new daily high. Just how this develops is a toughie. Ideally, we should see a deeper pullback before it can turn back lower. I’d suggest taking care in this pair…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, March 19, 2018




I was partly satisfied by Friday’s development but it wasn’t exactly as I had planned. The general direction has been as expected although GBPUSD provided a rather neurotic development that could be seen as impulsive but with the limited ranges we’ll need losses soon, else it’ll end up pushing back above 1.3995. In terms of neurotic, even USDJPY has been a pain in the backside. I’ve even got to the stage of considering a triangle that started on the 16th February. However, having said that, the underlying outcome over the range of pairs still suggests a bullish Dollar.

For the most part, we appear to be close to a turning point but for a modest correction only. First, we should see follow-through higher in the Dollar and then a pullback. Sounds easy but this may take a day or two (or three) to revert to a stronger Dollar. This tends to suggest short-term trading for now but then when the reversal comes we can plan for another push higher.

EURJPY is rather similar to the Majors in terms of follow-through and pullback. This should limit the extent of any position, rather similar to the Dollar itself.

If there was any standout move, then it was in AUDUSD. The decline from the 0.7916 high has almost been a direct line lower. If I have caught this correctly, the Wave (ii) was just 8.1%... However, we’re coming to a lower degree reversal so probably it’ll begin to move into the Majors’ camp in a pullback over a day or two…

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, March 16, 2018


There were a few tricky bits to the reversal but overall we are now looking for the Dollar to make more headway. Even then, while we have seen some steady Dollar gains, we’re also coming to the end of some 5-wave moves. This should basically see follow-through but then a pullback to the downside. I suspect that will occur over the latter half of the day. Right now, we are expecting some minor corrections in Asia but not too deep, before we see that follow-through.

Perhaps USDJPY can make a better case for a more prolonged rally but not particularly robust. Basically, we have seen a Wave -a- and Wave -b- and followed by an impulsive rally. Basically, we’re halfway through so in many ways it will be similar to the other pairs. However, once it has found its high it will form the Wave -c-/-i- for a pullback in Wave -ii-. In USDCHF we should hopefully see the same follow-through and later pullback.

There may be a modestly robust decline in GBPUSD. Certainly, it fought to keep itself holding to a sideways range. As long as is sees some decent losses by European trading it should maintain the downside. The only risk is that if it fails to see that drop there may be one more blip to the upside before the final reversal.

EURJPY should still have some downside and then offer the baton to the next wave degree and probably driven by EURUSD.

The Aussie appears to be heading for a reversal – although momentum has not signalled any reversal. Best take care but, at some point, we shall likely see a reversal higher.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey