Friday, March 24, 2017

We should begin to see a more progressive outlook

My goodness, what a dour day it was yesterday. This grudging, slow and almost frightened market just failed to have any definite impact. It was good to see USDJPY make a new low. That brought the 4 majors – less GBPUSD – into a degree of correlation. The odd one out – GBPUSD – almost succumbed to the downside but then suddenly launched into yet another zigzag and by gum, an amazingly complicated and intricate one - although it’s not quite complete but we’re going to have to take care with this pair.

The Aussie extended losses and towards the general target zone I mentioned – between 0.7640 and 0.7560. We’ve edged into this zone but I feel it needs a pullback and a final leg lower – all within this range – before it rallies. This does seem contrary to the majors but we are beginning to see an hourly bullish divergence but perhaps we need the second decline to allow 4-hour momentum to join in with the bullish divergence.

As for EURJPY, it actually saw a pattern very similar to USDJPY – and that implies gains. However, I think the pullback higher will be limited.

It doesn’t look like a frantic day today – but should set us up for a stronger trend next week.

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  

Thursday, March 23, 2017


BIAS:         We should see losses today

Resistance:   1.0809          1.0824-28     1.0850-55     1.0872

Support:        1.0775-90     1.0755-60     1.0719-45     1.0675-80

MAIN ANALYSIS:             We should confirm the loss of 1.0775 that will extend losses towards the  1.0719-45 area being the first reversal. This will likely provoke a correction higher before losses can resume. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Only a direct break above 1.0828 would cause a great deal of angst… However, I'd be looking for bearish reversal indications in the daily (cyan) Wave (b)/(iii). I wouldn't be surprised to see the 1.0872 area cap - but we'll have to judge that if it is approached and ensure bearish reversal indications. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Still some barriers to overcome

This past week or so has been an incredibly complex development. It has seen pushes to the extreme – and that is highlighted by the Euro that stalled only 3 points below the 1.0828 high. At the same time the spider track movements in USDCHF and GBPUSD haven’t helped the cause… In USDCHF I was amazed with the strong follow-through below the 0.9966 low. That’s also an unusual development – and I have to say that I considered the potential for a move down to the 0.9860 low – let’s face it, it’s just another 20 points away…

So we’re still having a battle with the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds but once they have been penetrated I think life will get a little better. We’ve still to form the foundation waves so there’s still a risk of what may look like consolidation before the next trend.

In USDJPY I’d rather remain more cautious. I’m not convinced we’ve seen the low and there is a risk of a move into the low 110’s.

As for the Aussie, it’s not an easy outlook at all. The bigger picture suggests further downside but I can’t rule out an initial deeper pullback. It’s currently not a safe pair to mess about with. I’d suggest waiting for further losses to develop…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Some extremes being made…

I had hoped for a much more simple day yesterday. Clearly, I didn’t get my own way. Indeed, there were a few extremes that normally would not occur: a new low in USDCHF, also in USDJPY (which shocked…) and a close encounter with the 1.0828 high in EURUSD. It’s going to require some super close monitoring to work out the next break. Indeed, in some cases there could be a new extreme and reversal – or just plain reversal.

We still have the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds bossing the development but there are signs of these flattening out. I can’t see today providing a clear outcome – well, maybe there could be breaks that signal follow-through.

So we’ll still need to take care over today to see which of the alternatives will develop. At the same time, all the 4 majors have some solid Dollar bullish divergences in the 4-hour charts. The only detractor to this is the lack of a break above 0.7777 in AUDUSD – but then the Antipodean can be contrarian and do its own thing without necessarily correlating with the majors.

So we need to approach the market with care today and hopefully we’ll get a resolution.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Still a bit of patience needed

I was quite satisfied with yesterday’s developments. We have probably seen the Dollar lows and it’s not just the battle with the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that have been stifling the Dollar upside. This process still needs a little more time – probably into European and possibly North America also. However, I feel that in the second half of the day we’ll bust through the Clouds to generate a more directional move.

There is still a need to protect the Dollar downside – just in case. If there are any pairs that may see minor new Dollar lows then it’s USDJPY and – surprisingly – AUDUSD. The latter, the down-under pair, actually resolved the puzzle I had in the Antipodean. That it broke above 0.7740 provides us with a minor-ish follow-through to a new high.

As the day begins we should see a pullback to yesterday’s Dollar gains. The only issue is just how deep that pullback will manage.

Thus, take care over the Asian and partly European sessions but be aware of the break higher in the Dollar.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, March 20, 2017

Still need to await the next break

Friday produced some strange developments. They were nothing out of the ordinary but not everything went quite to plan although the general outlook was basically Dollar bearish. That USDJPY and USDCHF made new lows was annoying but there was always a risk of a slight expansion. EURUSD lagged for a while then rushed higher along with GBPUSD – the latter taking the secondary option of the 5-wave shift higher.

The current structures are pointing to some limited range trading in Asia – possibly running into the European open. We also have the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds providing barriers and risking consolidation. Thus, we’re sitting in a neutral area that needs to see the outer ranges break.

This could lead to some tedious development during the day but best keep alert for the next break that should provide follow-through.

Thus, take care over today. Tomorrow should pull us free from the correction.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey