Wednesday, January 18, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:     I am now looking for a cap for losses

Resistance:   0.7568         0.7585     0.7620-28     0.7655

Support:        0.7525-30    0.7505     0.7480-85     0.7464

MAIN ANALYSIS:            The rally reached the 0.7555-80 target area. There is a minor hourly bearish divergence but hasn't yet broken below support - this being at 0.7525-30. Thus, we shall have to be patient because there's risk of a move to 0.7585 but overall, the outlook should now be bearish. Once below 0.7525 we should see losses down to 0.7480-85 and later 0.7448. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any break above 0.7630 - on bullish momentum - could risk further gains but take care at 0.7655 and 0.7690-95…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A tricky day

Overall yesterday was a steady day with the exception of GBPUSD that decided to take up pole dancing – not that it managed any classy swings on the way up. It has, at least, cleared up the confusion of the ragged, scrappy decline and provided a more definite outcome that had been searching for. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it higher still but we probably need to cope with some difficult development beforehand.

Indeed, this seems to be a common theme across several pairs. Such was the relatively direct losses in the Dollar that it seems to have been a little too enthusiastic and this will suggest some care during today so that we’ll have to wait patiently to observe the initial pullback to allow follow-through later today. I see this in USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD in particular. I have some doubts about USDCHF in this regard…

The Aussie is a little more vague – although followed my instructions in yesterday’s report. Watch the channel there…

EURJPY also performed well, following through from the recent losses so we should be hitting the targets I mentioned yesterday. The trick here will be the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD. Which will provide the stronger move versus a weaker one.

So today needs some focus and attention to understand the balance between the pairs and their limits.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Still Steady Eddie trading

Clearly the U.S. bank holiday took any sting out of any tail but, that said, it’s generally been that way for a while barring a few whips and wriggles. I suspect this will continue over today – probably tomorrow also. Actually, maybe it’ll last through to the end of the week… That the continued sluggish development is most likely going to happen there won’t be too much profit to squeeze from the market. Therefore, the focus should still be on short-term trades. However, once the recent wild swings subside I suspect a more decent trending move.

Probably, EURJPY has suddenly begun to see some more directional moves. This has been driven mostly by losses in USDJPY – but also the lackadaisical EURUSD. There’s still a little more to go but before long, this should begin to slow down. This may well be the best outlook for today I feel…

The Aussie remains subdued. Nothing has changed from Friday in terms of expectations but still, it doesn’t look like being a frenetic day but instead a repeat of the slow development from just before Christmas. I really don’t think we’re going to get strong reactions for today and tomorrow.

As for the Europeans – the Continentals should stagger through the day without too much of a range – and strangely enough this may happen with GBPUSD also following yesterday’s gap lower…

Keep it simple today…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Friday, January 13, 2017

Friday the 13th…

Ever since the 3rd May last year the number of deep wave (b)/(iii)’s has been astonishing. It almost seems to have become the norm over the past 2-3 months. They can be really tricky…

The development from the start of the year has been a torrid one in EURUSD. First out of the gate this month I was too much in a hurry to see the downside. So I considered an expanded flat but that appeared to have broken down. Therefore, I thought it could suggest an irregular triangle only for yesterday to see further gains that implied an overlapping rally – a deep Wave (b)/(iii)… and all this with the accompanying fragile GBPUSD and a deep pullback in USDCHF. The fascinating thing about this one is that it’s the last leg of an expanding flat. However, today should complete this crabby, dishevelled and fickle structure…

I hope…

This should settle the fate of the majors and hopefully the follow through will be less volatile.

EURJPY has finally broken down but this pair can generate volatile swings too. I don't think this is going to be an easy rise either and the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY is obviously going to be key. How quick or how slow the follow-through will be, I really am not at all sure although, just keeping an eye on the eventual target, it seems to suggest steady, if erratic, losses.

As for AUDUSD… What the… Seriously, the loss from 0.7777 is just weird – stalling just above the 0.7145 low (on the 24th May last year…) I have to work on this. Currently I can’t see the logic in the structure…

Roll on next week…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Thursday, January 12, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR EURUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:              While 1.0622-27 caps we should see losses down to 1.0380-00

Resistance:  1.0622-27     1.0652     1.0682     1.0706

Support:       1.0563          1.0540     1.0515     1.0495-00

MAIN ANALYSIS:            The break below 1.0530-35 triggered the alternative - an irregular triangle. The initial decline reached 1.0453 in a 5-wave decline but then saw a sharp rally back towards the 1.0627 high. Thus, we should now see losses - most likely in 5-waves - that should reach the 1.0380-00 area. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Only directly above 1.0627 would concern but I'd then suggest watching the 1.0661-82 area as a possible top - max 1.0706. 

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Squished snails and worms

By the time I laid my head upon a nice soft pillow, I had seen the expanded flat in EURUSD dissipate to trigger the alternative outcome I had suggested. By the time raised my old bones at 3am it looked like the market had gone ape-shite. However, that said, the development has been appropriate in terms of the needed structure and therefore we are looking at Plan C. There’s a bit more than that because the general correlation has taken a hit in one or two pairs.

I have no idea what caused the Dollar to drop like a stone – and I don’t really care because it’s the structure along with ratios that actually provides targets. So I’m pretty comfortable with the overnight dramatics. (That’s Asian overnight…) What it does tend to suggest is the likelihood of continued swings for the coming week or so. Most likely we’ll see USDCHF and GBPUSD generate more directional moves compared to EURUSD but that’s not a bad thing…

The lack of correlation may well be highlighted by USDJPY that slipped below 115.06 and which seems to promise further losses that could drag EURJPY down by a decent margin although much depends on any possible consolidation.

As for the Aussie… the rapid rally was just not expected but actually hasn’t really broken any structure. It seems to be an extreme move but still valid…

So overall, I suspect some decent moves through to the end of the week but which could still be quite volatile.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  








Wednesday, January 11, 2017

The snail and the worm

Yes, you’ve guessed… The market has slowed even more compared to the tortoise and the sloth… These mega-slow days really makes it difficult to come up with definitive comments, incisive outlooks and up to the second news. I’m not even confident that today will be any better. So bored, I even decided to look at the economic calendar to see if any key releases are due. Nope… nothing much to look at here…

It’s pretty clear looking at the hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds that price is hanging on to these Clouds and swinging from one side to the other. I can’t really see too much change today. It tends to leave the pairs looking a bit ragged, indecisive and worn out. I still have my expectations and targets but this still looks like a slow, slow day.  

All I can suggest is to follow-through with the expectations in EURUSD and USDCHF. These targets should still be met. GBPUSD stalled nicely in my support area and now needs to decide whether it follows-through – or not. USDJPY couldn’t decide what to do so went to sleep but this has left it open to both sides of the market… EURJPY continues to frustrate while AUDUSD is acting as if it has Alzheimer's…

Of all the pairs it’s EURUSD and USDCHF that appear to have the simplest route… but try not to nod off while observing their sleep walking…

Good trading
Ian Copsey