Thursday, October 19, 2017

YESTERDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



IAN COPSEY

We should now see some decent moves

With the exception of USDJPY, of which we had already known would rally and carry EURJPY along, the Europeans and Aussie basically had a rather relaxed day listening to the swing kings. This should change today.

The biggest surprise was USDCHF that retested the 0.98361 high quite precisely. This is a rather strange development. I’ve counted it as the Wave EFC of an expanded flat but frankly, I’m pretty doubtful. Thus, I’m allowing for a possible overlap in Wave [c]/[v] that could edge a bit higher before reversing. However, it does have a rather extreme structural development – but that’s normal for the Swissie.

Otherwise, EURUSD needs only one more blip higher and also for GBPUSD that is seeing lower degree bearish divergences. So these two appear to be generally correlated but I suspect it will be EURUSD that provides a stronger move.

Referring to the comments above in USDJPY, the outlook appears to be the exact opposite of yesterday’s development and that suggests that it will drag EURJPY along with it…

The Aussie has been doing what it does best – procrastinating – and may well continue but most likely to the downside – but best wait and watch for the next break.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Yet another neutral day

Seriously, this is boring and tedious. There are too many mini-steps that somehow look as if they’ve formed a wave just to see a kink and then it adds on a move and then we have to adjust. Probably, out of the pairs, the losses in GBPUSD developed in 3-waves. It’s certainly not a strong enough to be the Wave -i- that will provide a projection target for the eventual target and thus it tends to suggest that we’re going to see a complex correction.

Equally, the ambiguous development in USDJPY was resolved and that too will maintain its development in a sideways to higher action also – and this seems to be the same in USDCHF that really made me have to search for a decent constructive development. It seemed to have planted booby traps throughout.

Given the outlook above, I really can’t get too excited about today although the bullish outlook in USDJPY may well be the highlight of the day – and likely to see EURJPY manage to push a little higher but I feel it could be limited.

The Aussie… Still has potential downside initially but should later reverse back higher.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Monday, October 16, 2017

FRIDAY'S FORECAST FOR EURUSD



IAN COPSEY

Broader swings to develop

I have an overall outlook for the Dollar in general. However, recently the individual pairs have been rather lacking in correlation that makes life a little difficult. In particular, USDCHF has been rather a lone wolf but so has GBPUSD. I sense that today – and maybe tomorrow - is going to see this continue. As far as I can see, both EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped out for now – and strangely enough USDCHF also. So we’re going to have to be on our guard over the next day or so but as the week progresses I suspect we’ll begin to see the general correlation kick in. So today suggests a continuation of this ragged development.

The Europeans aside, I was a bit surprised with the losses in USDJPY. Having said that, I had been expecting these losses but not quite so soon. It is at a stage where I can see potential triangles and/or losses but there are other alternatives. We have some modest hourly & 4-hour bullish divergences but without much “oomph” to them. The start of the day will provide us with a clue and from there we should be able to identify the direction.

Equally, in EURJPY we have seen some deep losses, as I had expected, to Friday’s 132.19 target and just below at 132.14. There are modest signs of a bullish divergence. As I suspect EURUSD shall decline, we’ll have to consider the potential for losses in the cross. Having had a look at the rather difficult development it still tends to suggest the Wave [iv] target I had mentioned some while back…

The Aussie did well on Friday. It should follow-through higher today but initially quite limited, a pullback and then a new high. Bearish divergences are developing so don’t look for an excessive rally.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, October 13, 2017

Stodgy end to a stodgy week

In general, it almost feels like the market couldn’t give a damn. There’s a lack of purpose in many of the pairs and frankly, this could see the final leg of this week stumble to the losers’ tape without making much of an effort. Of course, there will be one or three pairs that will attempt to push one way or the other but I can’t see much excitement going into the weekend.

USDJPY looks like remaining in a range. EURUSD will most likely see a drop and pullback. USDCHF should make some modest losses and GBPUSD… well, it looks like it has begun to suffer from dementia.

However, AUDUSD may be able to make some decent gains although there is some early risk of a pullback lower before further gains. However, that’s the puzzle that could happen – but overall bullish.

To complete the pairs, EURJPY managed to see the losses I expected. I’d like to see a little more but the balance between USDJPY and EURUSD doesn’t look encouraging and may well end up in a consolidation.

Put your feet up and have a great weekend
Ian Copsey