Monday, February 27, 2017

OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:                  I am expecting losses initially

Resistance:        0.7691-96     0.7708          0.7728          0.7740

Support:             0.7662          0.7637-49     0.7604-17     0.7584

MAIN ANALYSIS:              Well... I was really confused when I began trying to resolve the structure but eventually I conquered it. I hope…  This will still need some losses and I suspect into the 0.7565-00 area. Thus we should be looking to sell into pullbacks. There may even be a chance of a move back to 0.7692-96 before losses continue. Thus, maintain a bearish outlook and watch for bullish reversal indications in the 0.7565-84 area. From there we will require one more 5-wave rally.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:    Any earlier break above 0.7740 would suggest gains above 0.7728-40 and likely back to 0.7777 high.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A tricky week

Last week was quite slow and complicated, particularly towards the second half. Probably, of all, it was EURUSD that cruised through the decline down to 1.0493 – but from there the Gremlins began to set in. Normally, from that low we’d not see such a deep pullback – but such was the market in general… Frankly, it seems to suggest that the market appears to have taken the step off the accelerator and wants to have a quiet time. Well, I’m not sure that’s really what is needed but from what I can see, there looks to be a complicated outlook for the first half at least – and then it ends, with a bang, on Friday with the NFP.

I’m pretty comfortable with the basic expectations for USDJPY and EURUSD. USDCHF probably has two possible outcomes, GBPUSD … well, this could be a surprise package but I have my suspicions balanced between two options also.

That leaves the Aussie and EURJPY. Actually, I have a modestly clear outlook for EURJPY but this is one pair that can sneak in an additional blip that will trigger a different outcome – not an uncommon result. As for the Aussie, having suggested a neutral stance on Friday due to the complications, I resolved the structure – a typical development that it seems to like with complex corrections, irregular corrections and spindly legs in the 5-min chart. I suspect this chappie will need further losses – but take care in case it decides on a pullback first.

Overall, this tends to suggest short-term trades for the problem pairs but EURUSD and USDJPY should provide an initial move – but then could see the middle of the week rather scrappy.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  








Friday, February 24, 2017

Pause - regroup

Every now and then, particularly following some pretty decent outlooks that held together so well, suddenly a bolt come from the blue. Yesterday it seemed to be blue, yellow, green – although made me feel black. In this particular event the problem I see is that some pairs appear to have completed a move while other seem the reverse. Having said that, the majority of pairs do seem to suggest further Dollar weakness – although that will create further havoc in the structures.

For example, the decline in EURUSD was pretty darn perfect but the depth of the pullback from 1.0493 is in danger of breaking the impulsive structure. This is also valid in USDCHF. Then, on the other hand, GBPUSD seems to need to push higher – just as USDJPY needs to move lower.

This is putting a strain on the entire balance of the market. Even AUDUSD, that looked to be set on a downward path, suddenly upped sticks and moved to new highs. However, that may well solve an issue but the structure is shot to hell.

The only pair that really made any sense was EURJPY – but then the balance between EURUSD and USDJPY will trigger further weirdness.

Today appears to be a day to observe and wait for the market to calm…

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey  







Thursday, February 23, 2017

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR AUDUSD

INTRADAY CHART
BIAS:                We should see losses down to 0.7616-25 and below 

Resistance:      0.7690-00     0.7714     0.7732          0.7754

Support:           0.7665          0.7649     0.7615-26     0.7570-00

MAIN ANALYSIS:            My goodness… Even when I eyeball that structure in the chart I would not really have believed it - but it was valid… So, While 0.7690-95 caps we should see losses down through 0.7665 and to either 0.7625 or 0.7616 for a pullback and then losses to below 0.7605. 

COUNTER ANALYSIS:   Any earlier break above 0.7700-05 would frustrate and could signal gains above 0.7714 and likely above 0.7732 towards the 0.7777 high.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

A two-way day

While there were a few niggles yesterday, overall I am satisfied with the way price went. The end of the day was a little more challenging in some pairs but ended up ok bar the Yellen. GBPUSD provided a puzzle early on in the day but it was finally resolved – although generated a more complex corrective pattern. This still has a little more to run.

The Continental Europeans are still in play but I can’t see a massive directional move today and I suspect this will be a relatively slow affair initially but could add a little more spice as we run through the day. However, the key point is that there’s a chance of some swings over the day.

USDJPY had a variety of outcomes and the last choice appeared to develop. I say “develop” because there’s even a risk of further swings in the first half of the day but overall the eventual outlook still looks to be on track. How EURJPY managed to develop almost perfectly with the moves in USDJPY is quite amazing… However, such is the way Harmonic Elliott Wave works.

As for AUDUSD, I was tearing my hair out wondering why it had gone on a long and complicated Walkabout. I was almost ready to give up on the structure I thought I was seeing but miraculously, when I had a go at seeing whether there was any real 5-wave move, it appeared before my very eyes. It was a crazy, weird and not so wonderful drunken mess – but worked… So we’re back on track.

Take care today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Wednesday, February 22, 2017

A slower day today

Yesterday was not a bad day at all… I was a bit surprised with the earlier follow-through higher in the Dollar over the Asian session although I had always been looking for follow-through in Europe and North America. There was just one dissenter – that being GBPUSD that must have had three or five too many beers at lunchtime so it staggered home in the middle of the night having got lost. That reminds me of my colleagues back in the 80’s who loved a liquid lunch…

So, we’ve seen a decent move but as we move into the Asian session I don’t think we’ll get a repeat of yesterday’s rush to buy Dollars. I wouldn’t rule out a follow-through in the Dollar at some point but there will be pullbacks and that could see some generally (modestly) narrow range trading for a while through the day. As North America enters the fray there could be some minor fireworks being triggered.

EURJPY developed very well. I’m still expecting losses but just keep your eyes focussed on both EURUSD and USDJPY to make sure all is well within the balance. There are some turns that could develop today – or maybe early tomorrow.

AUDUSD still loves its boomerang. Just as it looked like it would extend losses it has begin to push back higher. The general outlook I have still remains and that should give you an idea of how to handle this pair today.

Good trading
Ian Copsey  







Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Slow start – faster follow-through

Friday took time to shift price along in Asia but then allowed Europe and North America to do my bidding. Yesterday… well, what could we expect? Of course, a dull, lethargic and soporific day but that was always going to happen with President’s Day. With a relatively narrow range day yesterday it has the potential to widen the swings by a small margin initially but the final outcome will be when a stronger directional move begins.

With the exception of EURJPY, all other pairs have seen both their hourly & 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds begin to flatten out and for the most part settling for a home base from where we’ll see the next move.

As for EURJPY, the limited hourly swings have allowed price to be absorbed into the hourly Price Equilibrium Cloud but, as mentioned above, the 4-hour Cloud still hangs heavy and ready to rain down upon price.

Thus, be patient until European/North American timeframes and jump on the bandwagon.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey