Thursday, October 27, 2016


Three wave moves. They can be part of an impulsive development – or they can be part of a corrective structure. Let’s take yesterday’s development in USDJPY as an example. I suggested the 104.00-10 as a base for the day. This implied a 3-wave decline from 104.87. From that low we appear to be completing two sets of 3-wave moves to reach to around 104.66-67. This was the lower target I suggested could provide a triangle. This may well be the case but there can be a triple three that could retest the 104.87 high – and possibly a minor break above. Basically, this implies a corrective structure and indeed, a complex correction. Thus, we have the option of a triangle, flat or expanded flat.

Both EURUSD and USDCHF also saw the development of a 3-wave move. Conclusion? We ain’t going to get very far today in these three pairs… It’s going to be down to the three structures listed above… A boring day and perhaps one that could extend to the end of the week…

As I write, USDJPY has managed to reach 104.67…

Now, GBPUSD is different and a pair that gave me some grief. I have resolved this – I think at least – but it is also hitting a retracement high. Thus, while in a different structure to the other majors, there is a sense of correlation because the Dollar needs to rally in the other two pairs – EURUSD and USDCHF… Therefore, the basic directional expectations appear set.

But what about AUDUSD? Well known for its boomerangs, the early trading yesterday saw that boomerang whizz into the sky – approaching the 0.7734 high but stalled at 0.7708 to see the boomerang come back to almost where it began. This has a tricky outcome because the rally was so sharp there could be a snafu hiding. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see it reverse back higher – but keep a watch on your backside…

As for EURJPY – having held up my hands and washing them of a structure – I remain neutral for now. Everything looks pretty well correlated… Best allow the structure to reveal itself…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Wednesday, October 26, 2016


BIAS:        There could be a dip to 0.9910-20 for gains to resume - but could imply a complex correction


MAIN ANALYSIS:     It appears that the 0.9915 low was the end of the pullback and from there we saw a steady rise and then a sharp rally to the 0.9979-93 area - ending at 0.9998. As expected this provoked a deep correction to reach 0.9932 but I suspect that while 0.9947-50 caps that we could see a blip down to 0.9910-15. If this occurs it will imply a 3-wave decline and as such it will raise the risk of a complex correction - although this will need to be observed carefully. If that 0.9910-15 low is seen then if we are to see a triangle then the 0.9970-80 area could cap - but observe momentum. If there are bearish reversal indication be cautious as it could trigger the triangle. Otherwise, any stronger bullish momentum could take this back to the 0.9998 high. The next higher degree target is at 1.0066 or 1.0108.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:     Only a direct break below 0.9900 would cause some problems and I can't see particularly strong supports. Maybe 0.9840 could support. If broken then look for 0.9810-15 and if below then 0.9750-67…

Good trading
Ian Copsey

Swings – or roundabouts…

What a weird old day… GBPUSD did a mini-repeat of the collapse, USDCHF whipped higher to reach the next intermediate projection target while EURUSD – normally the leader of the pack – slipped lazily below 1.0859 in a dreamy haze and then suddenly woke up and whipped up higher. I guess there was a degree of correlation in terms of direction but the degree of the moves were totally haphazard. I assume that some sort of fundamental catalyst prompted the move and tends to suggest further entertainment today.

Even USDJPY saw the break above 104.47 that signalled the rush higher – and even sharper decline. Thus the major Dollar-currency pairs are looking good for another push. If there could be any problem, it could be in USDCHF. This is down to a mini-minor Wave ii that may provoke a complex Wave iv. Therefore, until this potential snafu is denied, I’d suggest taking care. Watch the lower degree development to determine whether the correct size waves are developing as they should…

I also note that the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds are Dollar supportive but actually testing the Cloud. If the above description occurs then we may well see price oscillate around the Clouds… Given that AUDUSD appears to be more buoyant than I expected, it may well imply the same.

Finally, just a note on EURJPY: The triangle that appeared to work so well – even stalling at the lower end of the range in the Wave ^e – well it appears not to have been a triangle although it looks like one. That should suggest losses.

Take it stage by stage to identify whether we can still see an immediate trend – or just a consolidation…

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Correction completed – or not?

I can’t say I’m too surprised with yesterday’s long and winding and twisting and wonky road that may have – or may not have – led to a door but could also be a portal to yet more of the same…

My own expectation is for more. If so, then we’ll see the boundaries widen to further horizons. Hence, this is the basic outlook I have for today.

But, however, nonetheless and on the other hand there are two pairs that have a slightly different position – USDJPY and AUDUSD. The former surprised with its strength. It has the potential to follow-through but there is a key level that could stall the upside and see a recycling. Therefore, take note of the magic portal that would take it into the blue sky. This is going to be important for EURJPY also because it could change the outlook in the cross. Approach this with care.

In the Aussie, the pullback higher was perfect and the next target I mentioned yesterday remains intact. While the current decline is part of a directional move, the risk is kinda similar to a consolidation since it tends to argue for a two-way day.

So all-in-all the risk appears to be for a narrow range day in general. Best keep trades to the short term

Good trading
Ian Copsey  

Monday, October 24, 2016

Time for a correction?

Friday provided a decent rally in the Dollar in general, right across the main Dollar-Currency pairs with the exception of USDJPY, which did actually baulk that trend but did comply with my demand that it didn’t break above 104.20. We have a gamut of Dollar bearish divergences – although AUDUSD was excluded. This tends to suggest we are likely to see a pullback overall and therefore we’re looking for how deep these may probe. The problem with these is the general lack of correlation in terms of depth.

Therefore, we’re going to have to treat each pair individually rather than look for a standard retracement. More than that, we shall need to observe as to whether any or all pairs could also develop in one of the six complex correction patterns. Thus, while the term “correction” is an easy description, the bigger task for us is to recognise the structure that develops in each pair. That there are six structures, many of which can generate corrections within the corrective structure this could prove to be a tough day. If we get away with a simple zigzag it would be the ideal.

Thus, tread carefully and take care today.

Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey  

Friday, October 21, 2016


BIAS:      I am in one mind - bearish

Resistance: 1.2274 1.2297 1.2331 1.2345-50
Support: 1.2244 1.2197-09 1.2174 1.2135-45

MAIN ANALYSIS:    After all the bother trying to work with alternatives, yesterday's losses (along with EURUSD) were far too much to bring price back from the dead. I can't even see any potential for a break above 1.2274 and therefore we should see direct losses initially down to 1.2197-09 and then towards 1.2135-45 (I suspect.) Overall, this move lower should extend down to 1.2087 and to an eventual 1.2015-33 area.

COUNTER ANALYSIS:      The upside probably has no chance - but if I'm wrong and there's a move above 1.2280 - I'd still be cautious but would remain neutral until there are bearish reversal indications.

Good trading
Ian Copsey

All clear for take off

I’m not sure how to describe yesterday’s moves. Well, positive I guess – in the final outcome. The EU whips were just collateral damage. It should therefore mean that we can begin to look forward to a more directional wave – or “waves” that should take us out of the long misery of the “year of the long knives.” However, as always, there’s work to be done and checks to be err… checked particularly pre-European open where the Asian day can provide a reprieve from the sharp whiplashes.

What is clear now is that the Dollar can make its case for the upside so it’s just a matter of identify the entry levels and follow the lower degree development to confirm the higher degree development (and if you haven’t downloaded the spreadsheet from my website, please feel free and begin to work with the wave degrees) and then Bob’s your Uncle.

All three Europeans should basically be correlated and should be straightforward.  This may include the Aussie should it tip below this morning’s low. Otherwise, until then, there is a mild risk for a minor new high.

After a few days of trying to cope with USDJPY I feel I may have resolved the structure. It needs ratification, as always when there has been an uncomfortable series of complications, but I’m beginning to feel that we’re going to see the downside develop – and that will have implications for EURJPY - that could provide the best carrier of all pairs.

Hopefully, we’ll see a good move later to complete a more satisfactory, although tough, week

Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey